Reverse redboard, or in other words, "Where did it all go wrong?"

[TempletonPeck]

I took a swing at the Pick-6 at SA today, and it wasn\'t exactly what you would call a raging success!

So, at the risk of running afoul of the Red-board Rangers, a post mortem and maybe we can figure out what I missed the first time around...

Race 4: I was turned off of #4, because since running the 7.5 at DMR, 3 Sept 2015, it seems like he hasn\'t shown much interest in getting back down there. #5 has only had one race since the 9.75 top, and has run a decent race on the downhill course, if he could get back to the 9.75 he\'d be pretty close so I used him. #8 has the right to improve off his one race and if he does he\'ll be in the thick of it, so I use him. Throw in the #13, who seems to have a very nice workout pattern and took some steam money leading up to the race.

Use: 5, 8, 13

Result: 8 wins, paying $13.00, and I\'m alive!

Race 5: #1 ran four months ago, and with the note \"bi/bo\" it makes me think the layoff was pretty likely due to being worn out or maybe even sore or injured, but he has been working out really well in the last few weeks. But given the connections, I decided not to use him because I thought the odds would be even money or worse and he doesn\'t appear to me to actually be better than others, let alone by any margin. #4 ran an 8.25 last one, 5 weeks ago, seems to me no reason he can\'t improve off that. #5 I included because even though he ran a big number last out it remains to be seen if he\'s going to bounce, and if so, how high. If he can run a 6-7 that might make him pretty competitive here, and a big price, so he\'s in. #7 I used because although he\'s backed up from the 5.75 it\'s a bit of an 0-2-X to my eyes, and he\'s had a little extra rest.

Use: 4, 5, 7

Result: despite Mike and #2\'s best efforts (#1 and #2 hook up for 21.01/43.23) #1 holds on to win, and I\'m looking forward to 3 consolation prizes. #4 is the third head in the 1-2 photo, 7 another half-length back, and 5 got a participation ribbon.

Race 6: #2 has two races under his belt and good spacing, seems to me he could improve another 3 or so points and run a 10, which looks to make him tough. #9 earned an 11.5 first out, so a 2-3 point improvement for her in her second outing makes her the choice IMO.

Use: 2, 9

Result: 6 and 8 duel in the stretch, with 8 prevailing and paying $78.20. I don\'t feel that bad about missing this (could I really have predicted a 15 point jump up? apparently not many could, 38/1). But, if the 6 pokes her nose out do I regret not allowing for a 5-ish point jump-up there? Any thoughts?

Race 7: #5 seems good for a 4 or so, but has never gone the hillside course. With a 1m stake yesterday, why is this horse in this race with a bunch of pretty tough customers? Anyway, trainer gotta know the horse better than I, so assuming the horse takes to the goofball grounds, we got a chance. I toss the #6 because following the 0 top it bounces bad and then needs most of 4 months off, this doesn\'t feel like a horse ready to run a big figure. #7\'s only bad figures are on dirt, so I assume it\'s going to run another 4-5-6 and be competitive, and has run the hillside before. #10 was my biggest bet of the day. #11, the notation \"vanned off\" never inspires a world of confidence but horse can probably win without its best and I assume the trainer wouldn\'t run the horse if it weren\'t fit, so on the ticket it goes.

Use: 5, 7, 10, 11

Result: 5 wins, paying $17.80, and I curse the gods that the Chinese food place at the Wynn wouldn\'t make my wife a takeout order, so I did the old \"fire and forget\" (made my bets and left the book) and watched my money get stuck behind a wall of horses along with the #10 and then gallop out past the moon while at a Vietnamese restaurant. Good news, the spring rolls paired their top and were still very good. However, the #5 only nosed out the #6 who I figured to be awful - what\'d I miss there?

Race 8: I like #5 to pair the 4.75 or even beat it, and the Thoro-Pattern seems to agree! 47% chance to pair or improve and even if he backs up 1-2 points it could be enough.

Use: 5

Result: 6-8-5, they all 3 went pretty fast on the front, my horse in between, and poof goes (more of!) my money. Can anyone see what I missed with the 6 or 8?

Race 9: #10 has been getting 4.25\'s and a 5 while taking some overland routes, he\'s in. #7 seems good for a 5.5 or 6 and at about 5/1 that seems worthwhile, he\'s in.

Use: 7, 10

Result: 2 wins, and the good news is we have a double carryover! The bad news is that they carried my money over! I couldn\'t really find a 2+-point improvement over the recent 6.75 point top for #2, is it there and I missed it?

[TempletonPeck]

Regarding race 7: I think it was in fact a 9f stake yesterday #5 was nominated for, and after the race I heard the trainer interviewed and he said that he feels that 8f is her sweet spot and 8.5f really the absolute max for her, which explains the choice of ~6.75 furlongs instead of 9.

[Tavasco]

Mr. TempletonPeck the time you invested in your post surely deserves some reply, here\'s one.

Race #6 Between the #\'s
A MSW race and you chose #2 who at first asking was well intended in a MCL @ DMR and claimed. Then stretched out in a MSW @ LRC (probably about the same level of competition) but the horse runs wide on both corners which is a Gutierez specialty but ?? Now a compromise @ 7F. D\"Amato had this filly ready 1st out and she fired. Why assume a pair or improvement at this point?

A similar story on your #9 a nice 1st race but again counting on pair or improvement why?

Your choices finished last and second to last. They both regressed in fact last out LRC runners finished in the last three spots.

Positives - you were getting an OK 9/1 price on the #2. Negatives -The #9 was the 2nd choice to the favored 1st time starter #1 who, if she was as good as the crowd thought and most Baffert firsters are she was gonna probably beat the #9 anyway.

Your choices reflect picking the best number. I assume you were just selecting the horses you saw as contentious and hoping to get lucky in the sequence. This is a great example of how hard the pic 6 is. In particular the winner appeared to be the horse with the least chance, but off of only one start and on turf at that. Imagine not really trying. A $ fine in HK & Japan.

As one who follows Aussie racing I at least knew that the sire Lonhro has produced many top runners the workout tab, which many disdain, is actually encouraging and one of Gallagher\'s good moves is 2nd off a l/o. In all likelihood the trainer put one over on the public which smaller barns are apt to do needing to be resourceful vs the bigger competition.

All in all a great example of a race where an astute handicapper could make a score. Having said that I also thought the #9 was the most likely winner but not enough to hang the chances of pic 6 success on her.

5 consolation tickets with 5 of 6 so most of your bet is not lost. it is in the carryover pool. The pic 6 is obviously a very difficult  proposition. No wonder there are pic 6 syndicates.

I believe few really think through forming an opinion from one performance and as we see here that is a pitfall. Yet we know to avoid those who don\'t win early. What a puzzle.

Race #7
Now for the really controversial stuff. The winner is shortening up from from mile races spotting wgt. The second place finisher is stretching out from her 5F specialty. IMO, it would be hard to play the #5 without TG. It would be easy to play #6 by considering energy distribution, which suggests the filly can go farther and the KD race was surely a bounce. Plus a zero makes the #6 the fastest horse. It is iffy to play either off form and the bettors top pic #11 getting wgt was appropriate and her fail surely ruined more than a couple pic 6 consolations.

I\'ve got to go handicap the Powerball, not that I need the money but I love the challenge of a good puzzle and it is a carry over.

[TempletonPeck]

Re Race 7: 100% agree, without TG I never much consider the 5. The other product I use rated it about the 5th or 6th most likely winner. Even with the TG I didn\'t *love* #5\'s chances because it rated to be back of the pack in a big field on a goofy course with the rails a little out. Unbeknownst to me (and the trainer), the jock intended to put the horse in the race early, to good effect!

And yes, going into that race there were 412 live tickets, and with the #11 going off 4/5 this is essentially where the pool carried over.

Re Race 6: TBH I can\'t really say why I assumed #9 would improve other than it seems to happen frequently enough that a horse improves from first start to second start. For #2 the new trainer has been known to make some pretty remarkable improvements with horses he claims.

In all, I am definitely just trying to predict who will run the lowest/best TG number when I am looking at the TG sheets. I play about once every two weeks, so I\'m just never going to have the backstretch info, and knowledge like who has the most potent potion at any given moment.

I\'m gonna swing at the Powerball too, if I can find the time to drive out to Primm, smart people seem to think that $400mm is break-even or better, as long as I take the annuity: http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-when-math-says-you-should-start-to-care-about-powerball-2013-9

Thanks for responding!