Happy Holidays -- ROTW Open

[TGAB]

We here at Thoro-Graph wish one and all happy holidays. We\'ll be off for the next two days though Nicely Nicely will be monitoring emails and posts. We\'ll be back in the office Saturday.

We\'re not doing an Race of the Week this week. The data is free and open to all--why doesn\'t someone take the initiative.

Once again--Happy Holidays.

[Sandreadis]

Would be interested in hearing your opinions on this race.
6th at SA 12/26.

[Tavasco]

As hard as it might be to imagine, Stevens (Om), Quiones (Acceptable) are probably going to knock heads on the front end again. Big difference being this race is not 1 +1/8 like the Hollywood Derby.

I like one or the other to win. No late closers get up this time. The Irish Horse price depressed by Mr. Smith too big a ? for me.

Ike Walker a warrior, never better usually spotted well triple crown winning rider, colorful trainer healthy m/l to crash the trifecta.

By the way, the rumor that class is dead in horse racing is contradicted, by of all people, TGJB and terrific staff. The Christmas give back is as classy as it gets. Thanks for all that you do!

[TGJB]

\"Of all people\"?

Oh, I get it. Speed vs class. Okay.

[Ace]

In the 4th at Santa Anita I like the 14 horse Coastline. First time Phil D\'Amato with an outside post which I like on the hillside turf, competitive top good sprint turf pedigree and 20-1 morning line. Holy Lute scares me as well as Big Bane Theory, I\'ll box those with my pick as a saver. I\'ll be there on Saturday in person can\'t wait to pick up my Santa Anita calendar and cash a few tickets.

Ace

[gteasy]

R6:   Om does not have a pace advantage according to TG...loses a point for weight...
      spread to Perfectly Majestic, Crittenden, Soul Driver, Om, and best value        
      Fueled By Bourbon(it\'s Miller and a pace change).
R7    Hot City Girl is the now horse, Cavorting has numbers, both acclimated.
R8    Run Happy ships with a trainer change and no Maria for naps...will root against
      but must use with the spacing, drills, and figs...big class drop...the two
      McLaughlin\'s have upside and both worked at SA.
R9    Hunt was dead last at the top of the shorter stretch at Del Mar...Second Summer
      also ran well despite trouble...distance and weight should suit both.
P-4   5 X 2 X 3 X 2, or $30 @ 50 cents.

[Fairmount1]

TG players recently voiced an opinion they prefer turf over dirt.  The Daytona Stakes on opening day offers a 13 horse field on turf, down the hill at 6.5 furlongs.  The morning line favorite draws the 11 post position.  I'll attempt to improve my turf handicapping and maybe open up a discussion on a very interesting race.  

Daytona Stakes, Race 4, Santa Anita, 6.5 furlongs on turf, Down the Hill, Dec 26, 2015

Richard's Boy—first of two Peter Miller charges in side by side.  This one paired his top, a 3 in his last at 5f on the turf after running a 3 on dirt.  The dirt "3" came after almost 3 months off.  Spaced another 43 days since his last, this one looks likely to pair up or move backwards according to Thoropattern.  He will likely save ground, carries only 117, getting 7 lbs from the M/L fav No Silent and 7 lbs from 3rd choice on the M/L Alert Bay.  Useable underneath only.

Big Cazanova—Whether it is poly, dirt, or turf, this one's best is a "2."  Has ran back to back to back "2's" in turf, turf, and dirt events respectively.  He cuts back from routes all year to a sprint to end it on a course that many believe horses need one over before running their best.  Figures to save ground, has competitive figs but seems unlikely to break through to a new top at 6yo.  Dislike his chances but must be used at the bottom of the tri if you are heading in that direction.
 
Mystery Train—This is the second  U.S. turf race for the 2nd Argentine bred in the race.  His first turf race in the U.S. was a disaster. His poly track starts at Del Mar last year and WO this year provide no confidence.  His best on dirt is a "3," also cuts back to a tricky, tricky distance for a router first time.   Seems to get a good trip always and could spoil the bottom of the tri with an effort equivalent to his dirt best but this seems unlikely.  Playing against.
 
Rocket Heat—12th start of the year for this 3yo son of Latent Heat, bred to sprint on turf.  Not one race on the page puts him in contention.   Likes to run 1st or 2nd but just too slow and heavily raced. Throw out.
 
Big Bane Theory—After his 3yo season, has been a model of consistency numbers-wise running numbers in a range of 1 to 5 since August of his 4yo year.  Numbers of 1, 2, 2, 3, and 3 appear on the page for turf races.  Has run on the course earlier this year earning a 4 in a 3w trip.  Note the Sl place that may have compromised him in his last.  Contender.

Plainview--SCRATCHED

Alert Bay—This one's last 4 races have been his best.  City Zip gelding has posted 2, neg 0.5, 2, and 3 carving out 2w to 4w trips in all routes.  His sprint at Golden Gate earned a 7 but that was his first race in four plus months.  Co-highweight in the race comes out of the same Sl Pace race as Big Bane Theory but he was beaten by that one after being just 2.5 to 4 lengths off the pace early unlike BBT who was another 4 lengths back in the early going.  His best race came as the third in a short succession similar to today's race.  If he runs back close to the -0.5, with Garcia aboard, he will be in the tri and if gets to that number he can win here.  Has won at the dist on the course albeit against CalBreds in '14.  Contender.

Bench Warrant—ran a 1w trip over the course on Oct 8th, first off a layoff earning an "8" which along with all his other races makes him too slow.  Sadler earning tops and pairs at a combined 49 to 60% rate in various categories last 90 days.  That is your best angle to use him but looks too slow and needs a major move up to contend.  Throw out.  

Holy Lute—Another making his 12th start of the year.  Ran 2nd at 6.5 furlongs in April, May, and Sept (at SA, SA, And KD) earning figs in those 3 races of 3, 3, and 3.  Carries 119 getting 5 lbs from the two co-highweights giving him a 1 point advantage against those two.   Troubled trip line means he may get overbet off of his last but this 5yo is a borderline contender for the win on his best and player in the exotics underneath.
 
The Great War—One of Wesley Ward's specialties is grass, turf sprinters.  Ward trainees ran 2nd-3rd during the weekend of his life at the 2014 BC with No Nay Never and Undrafted on this 6.5 furlong course.  (Ward was in Florida watching his son run State CC championships if you are curious).   2015 hasn't been as kind to Ward but he still has won some races .  He still is dangerous in this type spot.  This one has earned a 1 at Turfway Park, where richiebee declared him his Derby pick.  Spaced out races major cause for concern obviously but shipping him out there shows confidence.  The 3 earned at WO where "failed to hold late" was a decent effort after 70 days off since Ward's almost complete debacle at Saratoga as a trainer.  This one Ran awful on BC weekend for Ward at his home track in turf sprint where Ward had at least 3 entered as I recall.  This one ran at SA in 2014 at BC when trained by O'Brien before being given to Ward earning an 8 while running a race that made him look like a sprinter.  Kent D and Ward team up for 61% pairs or tops in 43 starts.  Carries 117 pounds.  If he returns to a 1 or better, improving off the 3 at WO (treating the BC as a throwout), this one has price and legit win potential.  This one is the biggest question mark in the race but is a must use at the price and the potential this 3yo has shown this year.  CONTENDER, USEABLE in WIN POSITION.
 
Somethings Unusual—this horse will drive some TG posters nutso with his consistency earning a 5 in 11 straight starts dating back to last Dec.  Then in Oct, on this course at this distance, he earned a 3 finishing 2nd by a head in $100k Stakes (Calbred?).  He finally threw in a clunker on number power in November and returned to his usual "5."  Now, he returns to his scene of his lifetime top but even that seems unlikely at 119 emerging out of post 10.  Throwout.  

No Silent—Morning line favorite and Co-highweight giving 5 lbs or more to everyone except Alert Bay.  His lifetime top is a 3, earning that figure on six occasions.  A new top at 6yo, at 124, with 11 post seems unlikely.  TG would likely write to throw him out altogether while Rick B. would say be sure to use him with your best opinions.  He won the 3 races before the BC bounce, earning a 3 in all 3 of those events including a G3 6.5 furlong race on this course.  Using underneath only.
 
Toowindytohaulrox—Phil D'Amato trainee has earned a "5" in 5 straight races, with 7 straight "6's" before that with one of those on dirt.  Model of consistency, some will argue this is impossible, but regardless, too slow and poor post with a jockey I am unfamiliar with.  Throwout.
 
Coastline—2nd D'Amato trainee intrigues despite the outside post.  First time D'Amato on a horse that was bumped around stretch in last on Prelude to the Cup Day at Kee.  Lovell trained that day, Casse prior to that race.  Lightly raced on turf, figs of 3 on dirt in Oct, 4 on poly in August, 4 on turf at Gulf suggest a talent level that gets him close to these.  If D'Amato can improve this one a few lengths from prior trainers on D'Amato's preferred surface of success, he can be used even lightly in the top spot.  

Bottom Line—several horses in a tight range of figures that are useable but narrowing the possibilities including eliminating the fav from the win spot seems logical and likely.   The Great War is the one I will focus on with a win bet and key him in first and second  with Big Bane Theory, Alert Bay, Holy Lute, and Coastline in the opposite spot of TGW.  In third spot I'll use the ones mentioned above plus Richard's Boy, Cazanova, and No Silent.  $1 tri unit:  10 with 5, 7, 9, 14 with 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14=$24.  $1 tri unit:  5, 7, 9, 14 with 10 with 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14=$24.  

If you dislike The Great War and want to throw him out, box the other four in the exacta and/or trifecta at $1 unit cost of $12 for ex and $24 for tri (12-1, 5-1, 9-2, 20-1 on M/L) in a 13 horse field on a big day.

If you are looking to play horizontally, 5, 7, 9, 10, and 14.  5, 9, 10—A's and 7, 14 as B's if you like to use Crist's method.  

Curious others thoughts on betting structure as I discussed recently and received several helpful posts, both on board and privately.  Keep them coming if you have more insight in advance of this one.  Thanks.  

Good Luck!

[dodie]

#5  Soul Driver, trouble last 3.  Just as fast as Om.  Tyler has the best timing at one mile.  Take notice.

[FrankD.]

Fairmount,

Happy Holidays and a great choice for ROW, nice rundown on a very competitive field.

I\'m price shopping here and really love the pattern on Rocket Heat who is the speed of the speed in here. His Sire Latent Heat\'s runners improve 3 points from 3 to 4 and this one is definitely heading south number wise.He doesn\'t have the stakes experience or class if you prefer compared to others in here for sure.
Hoping for 20/1 and I\'ll fire a shot on this one going coast to coast with Richards Boy sitting right behind him in a one two speed pop!

Big Bane has won one race in 2 years, Alert Bay is going in the wrong direction and giving weight, The Great War has only run one race that competes with this heat and No Silent spots too much weight for a wide left turn coming home.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[Wrongly]

Frank, Rocket Heat?  Get the speed of speed part but not the pattern.  3 point new top, looks to bounce to me.

Like Richard\'s Boy who sporting the small pair.

The workouts or lack there of look troublesome for The Great War.  

Frank I hear ya on Big Bane\'s lack of a win but the price is right and this one shows two good works.  Coastline also shows two good works but is a step slower.  For me it\'s exacta box of Richard\'s Boy, Big Bane, and Coastline and will probably play Coastline to win.

Happy Holidays!  Only 134 days till Derby.  T.

[purplemike]

Richards Boy, good pattern and a good number on the downhill this spring. Seems like alot of horses either run well or poorly on the downhill consistently.

[Fairmount1]

Happy Holidays to you as well Frank!  

I certainly would never discourage anyone from a 20-1 shot.  Personally though, I just can\'t use him.  Latent Heat horses in my experience just never go further than 5 to 5.5.  He is THE speed in the race for certain.  Ironically, in trying to find solid facts to support my statement that Latent Heat\'s don\'t go further than 5.5 or 6 furlongs, I found that Latent Heat under Frankel\'s care won the Malibu Stakes earning a 111 Beyer.  Looks like the best evidence I can provide that LH progeny don\'t do well beyond 5.5 is that LH\'s have a 16% winning percentage at less than 6 furlongs and only 13% at 6 furlongs to 7.75 furlongs.  (Just trying to avoid the assertion police.)  

As for Rocket Heat, he was clear in a 6.5 furlong dirt race by 4 lengths and ended up second.  He ran over this course at 6.5 furlongs this year and after setting all the pace, packed it in when they hit the dirt.  The race is worth watching as Frank Mihramadi decides in the stretch run to change voices to his own Trevor impersonation.  Certainly I wasn\'t expecting that as I watched the replay.  And I believe he was imitating Dave Johnson out of the gate but I\'m not for sure on that.  Click on Watch Video once you get to the site listed below for your own watch and listen.  

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/race-results?startDate=6%2F26%2F2015&endDate=6%2F26%2F2015&trackLookupId=1663&type=AllowanceOptionalClaiming&statesBred=&searchStateBredPlacers=false

[gteasy]

Will add Mr. Brightside to my Mathis Brothers Mile spread...Gallagher is a patient
developer.

[gteasy]

40,000 people(perhaps) and a strong contingent at \"living room downs\"...why not ten
races and two P-5\'s plus another P-4 in the middle?

Three 2YO races out of the first five plus a cavalry charge in the Daytona...SA\'s
preferred outcome would be an opening day P-6 carryover...but to maximize handle on
big days they should expand the menu.

Caution suggested early in the card, and in general early in the meet.

[Bet Twice]

Race 11 at GP....Gotachancetodance at 6-1 ml looks tough.  In relatively light, should be on the rail for at least one turn and has a great pattern.  Not sure the odds will hold but at 3-1 or better I\'ll be betting.