Honor Code and Tonalist

[richiebee]

For whatever reason Honor Code seemed to be much closer early than usual. Very
strange to watch him shift abruptly from a ground saving mode to being six wide
on the turn.

Tonalist loves a wet Belmont strip and dominated a short field of what in my
opinion were overmatched foes, the best of whom, Wicked Strong, might have been
compromised by a strange ride. Skeptical as to whether Tonalist can do his best
away from Belmont.

Curvy resisted all efforts of her rider to tuck her in behind cover, resulting in
a wide trip behind Stephanie\'s Kitten, who went over $3M in earnings winning the
Flower Bowl.

[Fairmount1]

Those are my 2 on top of bc classic at the moment.  Never discussed with you \"off board\" as you can confirm.  Told my friends that while at Keeneland this weekend more than once.  Belmont factor for Tonalist cerainly worth considering; hc a clear prep, without a doubt.  

Beholder and AP not on top for me.  Tg info very helpful for the weekend at Kee.  Can\'t say enough about TG figs.  Keeneland my fav track live; but i think a 2nd trip to saratoga next summer wil pull it up within striking distance as they enter the turn; hoping there are many, many years left before I hit the final stretch run as I venture track to track!

[ringato3]

Richie

Think honor code ran about the same relative early pace as his last few races.  However he has benefited from vicious early paces all year this year except the ugly kentucky race.   Yesterday, considering a 1 turn mile for graded stakes horses, that was a VERY SLOW pace and he couldn\'t be as far back as he usually is.

Tonalist a tough read to me.   His TG figs consistently good.   But yesterday he tripped out on a track he loves.   Strange Rosario ride setting it up for him.   I could see Rosario leaving for position from the rail but geez, he wants to push constitution for a half mile then re attack early?  

On number power, Tonalist has to be a solid contender for the classic.   But don\'t know that he will run as well at keenland, although I expect his price will compensate.   Can\'t see him higher than 5th choice or so.

As much as I hate Pletcher and saw him shit the bed all day yesterday at belmont AGAIN on a big non-Gulfstream Park racing day, I think Liam\'s Map is going to be a handful in the classic.

Rob

[ajkreider]

Hasn\'t Tony run something like 7 negative 2s in a row?  Nothing from yesterday suggests anything new.  So, if that\'s good enough to win the classic . . .

Not convinced HC want to get 10f with anything but a perfect trip.  9 has already been a surprise.  But we know AP and Tony will be full of run.

[ringato3]

AJ,

Have u ever looked at Tonalists sheet?   7 negative 2s?   Not close.

He had 4 negative 3 3/4 races this year before yesterday.

Plenty fast enough to win the classic with the right trip.

Rob

[miff]

Tonalist loves Belmont and wet track, tough read at Kee.

Honor Code awful on Sat but Shug has won 5 BC races with horses coming in off a loss, still must perform like Met mile to win.

Taris was disappointing yesterday in spite of ugly trip out in Cali.

[richiebee]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie
>
> Think honor code ran about the same relative early
> pace as his last few races.  However he has
> benefited from vicious early paces all year this
> year except the ugly kentucky race.   Yesterday,
> considering a 1 turn mile for graded stakes
> horses, that was a VERY SLOW pace and he couldn\'t
> be as far back as he usually is.

I hate to herd whisper here, but being close to a slow pace also meant
being in and around horses. Honor Code usually likes to have separation
early in his races (think Spinal Tap. HC usually likes to lay eleventh in a
ten horse field in the early stages). To twist and turn what you said above,
are we saying that HC couldn\'t kick home v. some outclassed foes off a slow
pace? A very fast animal such as this is pace reliant?

Must watch again HC\'s magical mystery tour beginning on the rail and
\"angling\"[severely][my impression] towards the outside.
 
> Tonalist a tough read to me.   His TG figs
> consistently good.   But yesterday he tripped out
> on a track he loves.   Strange Rosario ride
> setting it up for him.   I could see Rosario
> leaving for position from the rail but geez, he
> wants to push constitution for a half mile then re
> attack early?  

I think Rajiv Maragh got along with Wicked Strong real good.
WS might be hard to handle. WS outfinished Tonalist twice
with Raj in the bike.
 
> On number power, Tonalist has to be a solid
> contender for the classic.   But don\'t know that
> he will run as well at keenland, although I expect
> his price will compensate.   Can\'t see him higher
> than 5th choice or so.

Ran in front bandages. Thinking of it from a player\'s perspective,
who wouldn\'t hope that Clement ship Tonalist to Kee for a week or so,
maybe breeze him there, let the expert appraisers of horseflesh
have a look at him. Because Tonalist really did not seem to show much
interest last year in the BC at SA.

> As much as I hate Pletcher and saw him @#$%& the
> bed all day yesterday at belmont AGAIN on a big
> non-Gulfstream Park racing day, I think Liam\'s Map
> is going to be a handful in the classic.

Get over it and pull for one of the Lexington natives -- McLaughlin or
McCaughey -- to win a BC race \"back home\".

[Silver Charm]

Honor Code is a hard horse to ride and train. Sometimes he just doesnt. If he had fired huge on Saturday then he would he returning on shorter rest after an effort than he has in a long time if ever. The fact that Shug didn\'t seem to worried about the result and said oh well on to the next may tell you all you need to know about his mindset and intentions.

[TGJB]

Yeah, that and HC had a good pattern for an X, which is why I picked against him (and Ralis) in the analysis.

Don\'t ask.

People might want to take a good look at Tonalist\'s sheet to se if his efforts are location specific.

I\'ll tell you my takeaway from opening weekend at Kee. There\'s gonna be tremendous ground loss in the BC dirt races, and it will be the overriding factor in some. And especially in the short stretch races, and especially in the races with big fields, there are going to some catching severe traffic problems.

Ever see short track skating in the Olympics? Like that.

[firmturf]

Highlight of my day Saturday at Kee (other than purchasing Thoro) was reviewing Trakus data after each race. To your point there was significant ground loss throughout.

The draw for this years BC is very important.

[mjellish]

And to add to the benefit of being inside, if it is sunny and warm and they add water to the track in between races we are likely to see a good rail or a good rail+ or maybe even a golden rail.  Has to do with the way the shadows from the rail fall on the track in the stretch during the afternoon.  

I am so damn excited for the BC this year I can\'t wait.  Given the amount of money AP, Beholder, HC and Tonalist will take no matter where they draw, I think the Classic may be as good a race to bet as you will ever see.  As of right now I don\'t like any of them in this race.  And as far as I am concerned this race owes me from last year.  I still can\'t believe they didn\'t take Bayern down.

[TGJB]

Bayern not coming down was a function of the way that rule is written in Cal, and astoundingly they have not fixed it.

[miff]

Wet weather made Kee surface a tough read opening weekend, inside out moves with horses down the center best.Opening spring meet featured an edge to horses close up, within a few lengths(3 to 5 at pace call)on dirt at all distances.

How the track will play on BC weekend, who knows.

[phil23]

Looked at Shug\'s BC starters as far back as TG has sheets for, 1999.

(incidentally, if anyone wants to do this kind of search. the BC site has a decent searchable db to pull up queries like this:  http://stats.breederscup.com


18 starters:  17% top, 28% pair, 39% off, 17% X

But if we exclude the west coast venue BC\'s, which granted leads to just 9 starters so sample size is an issue, we get:  33%, 22%, 11%, 33%.  

So, non west coast, he\'s 55% to run at least a top. Which is right what his \"overall\" shows currently, 54%.

Which, if we can live with the sample size, really only tells us I suppose what we already could have inferred - that for east coast trainers, and Shug specifically here, they have a better shot when the BC is not out west.

[TGJB]

Re west coast, dirt and grass horses are affected differently, as I pointed out in advance of last year\'s BC. No idea why. Clement independently came up with the same thing.