Smarty Jones, the O-2 pitch

[Kingfisher]

Well, he knocked that one out of the ballpark. It was nice to see him return the support of many of us on this board.  I think that a little too much emphasis is being placed on his apparent 2-point drop, given that he won both of those races easily. I think you have to consider a two point drop differently if a horse is winning easily versus one that is obviously all out to hit the board.

Also, as I recall the 0-2-X pattern is an indication of an imminent return to the horse\'s top. But this occurs AFTER the X race. I don\'t recall anyone suggesting that a two point drop is an indication of an imminent X race. As I recall also, someone here last week stated that an 0-2 was as likely to result in a return to the top as to X in his next race.

I don\'t envy TGJB having to assign numbers to that race, though, given the track conditions.  I\'d love to see another two point drop; I think some of us were stretching trying to make a legitimate case to bet against.

[TGJB]

We will be publishing data on patterns soon that will enable all of us to evaluate what the chances are off an 0-2 for a spring 3yo, but a couple of points. One is, what a lot of us (and specifically myself) were looking at was that of the 22 Derbies since we have been making figures, only 3 had been won by a horse who had just made a backward move, and this horse had run enormous figures in his last two, and was running back on 3 weeks rest for the fourth time in a row. Now it\'s 4 for 23. In the end, betting the Derby SHOULD be like betting other races-- you are not looking for the most likely winner, you are looking for the right bet(s). Which doesn\'t mean I was right-- but my history with this race is very good. I\'ve hit it about 40% of the time, and a few of them were very big scores-- since 94 the tri 3 times, the super once, and 2 other smaller profits. I thought SJ was a very tricky call, because of the combination of the iffy pattern with tremendous number power-- I don\'t remember offhand when a horse went into this race almost 3 points faster than the next fastest horse, with a second number also faster. If he had been 2-1 he would have been a toss for me, at 8-1 a play, as it was he was just usable. For me-- obviously others differed in both directions.

The other point concerns \"easy\" wins. Even if I agreed SJ\'s last was easy (I don\'t), I will tell you that after a long time in this game I have found that there is no truth in the idea that easy wins don\'t take anything out of a horse. As Ragozin said to me 25 years ago, even if I agree he could have run faster then, why does that mean he gets to use the energy now? And even if horses are not pushed the last few yards, they usually ran very hard earlier in the race. We put h? next to a horse not because it\'s a non-effort, but because the figure itself may not be indicative of the horse\'s ability.

[Mall]

Smarty might have been a tad closer to 8-1 if what I\'m hearing is true. Taking a page from the Euro bookmakers who sometimes hedge by betting into the BC pools, Cella, who bought an ins policy for 1/2 of the $5 million bonus, apparently decided after the Ark Derby that it might be a good idea to hedge the other $2.5 million in the win pool. I\'ve not seen a breakdown which shows how much was wagered on each horse, but a $600k win bet had to depress the odds at least a little.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

23.00, :46.60, 1:11.40, 1:37.80, 2:05
22.80, :46.60, 1:11.80, 1:37.20, 2:04

These are fractional times for the Kentucky Derby. Note I have converted fractional seconds from hundredths to fifths for comparison.

The top group of fractional times is the 1989 Derby and the bottom one this years. The fractions at top were set by Houston with Sunday Silence in close pursuit. The bottom fractions were of course set by Lion Heart with Smarty Jones placed similarly to Sunday Silence (if I recall correctly)

I don\'t think you can draw any conclusions from this regarding the merits of the horses from different eras but I do think it hypothesizes an interesting phenomena about Churchill when the track condition is \"muddy/near muddy\" and that is that its in the last two fractions that a heavy track takes its toll on the energy of the runners. It doesn\'t necessarily slow them early.

[miff]

Easy wins still takes something out of all of them, but probably less than a gut wrenching all out war for the length of the stretch.Again,every horse is different, i\'ve seen \"hard hitters\" come back from tough races and still run their eyeballs out. Most of them that run their guts out regress, especially off of a weak foundation or long layoff.The game would be easy if we could look at every horse/situation the same, but trust me after watching thousands of races over many years, nothing is absolute.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ve lost many bets on \"easy win\" horses, factoring many times the \"in hand\" finish meant less than all out and thus no bounce next time. I\'ve been beaten pretty soundly betting that. I\'ve taken low odds positions on that theory as recently as Lemon Drop Kid and Albert the Great and the Concern colt Delp trained, I can\'t remember his name. I do have to say those were mature horses. Jerry\'s data on the young ones I believe will show that while the horse is three the 0-2-X is an iffy pattern. I base that upon my wagering success. Though I do lose on it. I bet Value Plus in the Wood.

I did think Smarty was wrapped up late in the Ark, but I watched past the wire and Borrego who I still think is a good horse, was never gonna get to him while in receipt of 5 pounds.



Post Edited (05-03-04 18:48)

[MO]

Race splits clarification

2004 Derby

22.99 (closer to 23 flat than 22 and 4/5)

46.73 (closer to 46 and 4/5 than 46 and 3/5)

111.80

137.35 (closer to 137 and 2/5)

204.06

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

thanks MO, I used the traditional split times techinque of rounding down, but rounding closest would have been most accurate. Sunday Silences were probably rounded down.

The larger implication of these times I left implied, but I\'ll articulate it if I wasn\'t clear. Heavy tracks like this that sap energy late are in many respects similar to what greater distance under pressure causes. The best moving horses late in this race were Action This Day, Limehouse, Imperialism, Lion Hart and Smarty J. Granted, there are some horses that had legitimate excuses...The Cliff\'s Edge for example. Easy Goer finished a nose in front of Awe Inspiring in \'89 and its pretty clear he did not like the footing but he still had the class to not become fatigued beyond others that took more kindly to the footing.

What does that mean in regard to this race? I believe it means that the separation between horses is usually greater with the demands of distance or in this case energy expenditure. My hunch is that the Belmont has been forecast, at least among this bunch.



Post Edited (05-03-04 19:56)

[KJH]

Smarty was first time juice. Did that make a difference?  I thnk it did. In the Preakness he won\'t be able to use juice.  Given the option, why didn\'t Lion Heart opt for juice too? Smarty was given it as \"only a precaution\" (Servis). Wise decision!



Post Edited (05-03-04 21:51)

[Kingfisher]

I saw the Ark Derby the same way. But what really attracted me to Smarty was the Rebel Stakes. It wasn\'t just the very low number- rather it was the way he did it. Looking at the race, at around the eighth pole you could actually see him kick it into a higher gear. That and the fact that he did it after legitimate fractions was important to me. In the Ark Derby, though, I didn\'t see the same kind of acceleration in the stretch, though as you said no one , including Borrego, seemed like they could get up to him. So my question is the same- was he fully extended in the Arkansas Derby? My conclusion was that he wasn\'t. So I think his apparent 0-2 pattern is deceiving, and the Kentucky Derby result was not surprising.

[jbelfior]

Chuckles--

TCE looks like a 1 1/8 closer. I see no reason to ever back him going longer than that. (This is no Strike the Gold.) Zito would be better off resting him for an extra week,then run him in the one turn Peter Pan @ Belmont.

As for SJ,the majority of us may conclude that a Preakness bounce in 2 weeks is likely, however can we find anyone good enough to take advantage??



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[JR]

02X should be applied with caution with spring 3yos. They\'re sudden development or \"jump up\" race is as likely due to the horse maturing, getting stronger, and therefore being more able to sustain the stress level of running faster. A slight regression is more indicative of their new ability and shouldn\'t necessarily be seen as a precurser to an X.

Monarchos was the same scenario.

[Lucy]

Mall wrote:

\"Smarty might have been a tad closer to 8-1 if what I\'m hearing is true. Taking a page from the Euro bookmakers who sometimes hedge by betting into the BC pools, Cella, who bought an ins policy for 1/2 of the $5 million bonus, apparently decided after the Ark Derby that it might be a good idea to hedge the other $2.5 million in the win pool. I\'ve not seen a breakdown which shows how much was wagered on each horse, but a $600k win bet had to depress the odds at least a little.\"


Hey, Chuck --- Cella wasn\'t on the hook for half of 5 mil, just a fatty insurance premium, and I very much doubt the underwriter (who WAS on the hook for the whole 5 mil) bet a million to cover.

*sets up football*