The Derby has changed

[jbelfior]

I guess now is the time that we start reconsidering what it takes to win a Derby...speed or pedigree?? Sure it\'s ideal to have both, but the past 2 years winners\'have been sired by 7f horses. Perhaps the 7f distance is what we need to look at in the future. Didn\'t the top 4 finishers have the best 7f races in the field?? (SJ 1:21 2/5 @ Philly; LH --HOL Prevue; IMPRLSM--San Vincente; LIMHSE--Hutcheson)

We now have a Distorted Humor offspring, followed this year by an Elusive Quality/Tale of the Cat 1-2 showing. I\'m not sure what,if any,role the CD strip played in the winner coming home in :26 3/5. But think about this. The top 2 were slowing down and still extended their margin over the rest of the field.

Was the field behind the top 2 that bad?? Did the race lack a quality closer? Will SJ repeat another SUNDAY SILENCE and turn his slow 2:04 around with a brilliant Preakness performance?  

Stay tuned. I can hear them loading up the EDDINGTON and RHT bandwagons.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

Given the conditions, I think the race is a toss for all bad performances.As far as the KD\'s last quarter, I think the track was slowish. Remember, SJ powered home in 24 flat in the Rebel after attending the pace.

[JR]

Get used to it.

Look at Elusive Quality\'s pedigree. Gone West (Mr Prospector over the Secretariat mare, Secrettame) on the paternal side and the stamina influence of Graustark and Sir Ivor on the maternal side. Plenty of stamina there even if Elusive Quality was at his best at shorter distances. I believe Gone West was one of the hottest sire prospects in his first years at stud.

Look for more derby winners from the grandsons and great grandsons of Mr. P down the road.

[Dan]

I\'m curious what JB and others think about the whole slow final quarter thing.  The thing that gets me is that looking solely at the fractions, Lion Heart looks like he went out fast (22 4/5) and quit.  Looking at the chart (or the video) tells a different story, he appeared to dig in and pull away from everyone but Imperialism.  Is this an argument for split variants? Was the track literally quicker around the first turn, where Lion Heart blazed a pretty quick time.  I guess I have a problem with that because so much of the first 1/4 mile of the race is in the same homestretch where Lion Heart and Smarty Jones plodded home, at least according to the stop watch.  But, if we assume the track was just slow, did Lion Heart go out in the equivalent of a 21 and change opening quarter?  I have some trouble believing he could do that and still be around for such a strong stretch run.  That leaves me believing that the track was not unusually slow and the field just did not finish strong.  I guess I would tend to believe the race collapsed.  I\'ll be interested to see the numbers.

[jbelfior]

My thoughts are the initial fractions are what they are and the race was run over a very demanding track...demanding to the point where everyone was staggering home with IMPERIALISM the one exception and he was next to last for the first 1/2 mile.

The chasers were too exhausted to sustain and the closers too leg weary to kick in the way they normally would. Hats off to SMARTY and LH for going on with it. But I think the race will take its toll and I will take a stand against in 2 weeks.


Too bad the greatest race in the world had to be run under those conditions. Racing sure gets its share of bad luck when put on the national stage. That\'s 2 Triple Crown races in a row run in a swamp.

I read where BORREGO and RTF were scoped and some traces of mud were found in their lungs. If this is true, you had 2 horses trying to run with blocked lung passages and 2 that were not wearing all of their shoes.

See you in Baltimore.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

JR Wrote:

>Look at Elusive Quality\'s pedigree. Gone West (Mr Prospector over the Secretariat mare, Secrettame) on the paternal side and the stamina influence of Graustark and Sir Ivor on the maternal side. Plenty of stamina there even if Elusive Quality was at his best at shorter distances. I believe Gone West was one of the hottest sire prospects in his first years at stud.

>Look for more derby winners from the grandsons and great grandsons of Mr. P down the road.

The other thing to keep in mind is Elusive Quality did have a mile World Record. I\'m not sure he still does but he had the record. Granted it was Turf, but it was fast.

Someone mentioned Smile\'s accomplishments he was more than a six furlong speedball and he had some serious stamina influence through his mare Sunny Smile. I\'m sure everyone sees Foolish Pleasure their in his pedigree as well.

The last thing thats apparent from a extended pedigree look is how saturated his pedigree is with Nearco. That great horse exists in many of his remote branches. The negative 3.3 told us he could run. That wasn\'t an illusion. One other point. Who doesn\'t think highly of Todd Pletcher? Purge wasn\'t entered in the Rebel and Ark on a whim.

Still, you wouldn\'t look at that pedigree and say \"Derby baby...Derby\"...so hes freaked.



Post Edited (05-03-04 15:02)