ROTW

[richiebee]

This is not an alarming move up to me. Young horse moves out from 3 very low
percentage outfits, is gelded and reaches new levels. And of course, one has
to notice that the front bandages have come off, so we can imagine the rapid
improvement can at least be partially attributed to mass quantities of
antiphlogistine^TM, Bigel Oil^TM and Absorbine^TM, not to mention that Ramoney Preciado probably sits
for hours hosing the legs of \"The Kid\", creating a small lake on the
backstretch in Bensalem, much the way Frank Whiteley did at Belmont with
Forego...

No Foregos today. Although his Thoro Pattern gives cause for optimism, I see
Trouble for the Kid in the form of a possible reaction and note that for all
of his miraculous move ups, RPrec\'s strike rate in stakes races is 7%.

I\'ll go fishing for a winner here and come up with Whiting -- Lynn Whiting,
who has been a top midwestern trainer for the last 35 or so years. Like
Hebbronville to move slightly forward off the pair up. 5/1 a decent price for
a runner looking for his fourth straight win for a trainer whose strike rate
in stakes races is above 20%.

[TGJB]

You have identified the problem.

[miff]

For the stat players, re Frosted, Kiaran 0-8 at Parx in graded stakes. Take a look at his prior 8 runners courtesy of DRF:



CARNIVAL COURT (2013 Cotillion - 9th at 9/1) - Had been fading third of 5 in Personal Ensign in previous start, yet that was a career-best race. Ran below best form, but broke through the gate pre-start, and that nearly always leads to disappointment.

ALPHA (2012 Pa Derby - 6th at 4/5) - This is the performance that folks probably feel lends backbone to the raw stats, but lets look at the circumstances. Alpha would go on to finish 12th in the BC Classic in 2012, and subsequent performances validated what seemed to be the case even at the time of the Penn Derby - the 2012 Travers was very poor. And while he beat only one at Parx, Alpha did lose only by about four lengths, and he was stuck on what seemed like a very, very dead rail that day.

IRSAAL (2014 Greenwood Cup - 6th at 9/1) - Coming off a distant second in the 14-furlong Birdstone at Saratoga, but he was fading that day and simply didn\'t stay the 12 furlongs of this dirt marathon. Returned to form later in year when cut back to middle distances.

ASIYA (2013 Cotillion - 6th at 8/1) - Amazingly, she - like her stablemate Carnival Court - also broke through the gate before the start of the Cotillion. Mainly a sprinter, the race was too far for her anyway, and her modest career record suggests she lacked the requisite quality.

TRANSPARENT (2013 Pa Derby - 4th at 5/2) - Bet this low because he was coupled with Albertrani-trained Romansh. Had been ninth last out in the Travers and would have been a much higher price on his own, and on his own would have outrun his odds with a solid 4th-place finish after being stuck on the rail.

RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE (2011 Pa Derby - 3rd at 2/1) - Coming off a second in Stay Thirsty\'s Travers, but you know who was third in that Travers? J W Blue. Not a great Travers. He ran his race in the Penn Derby, beaten by To Honor and Serve and by Ruler on Ice, both of whom were better horses.

QUESTING (2012 Cotillion - 2nd at 2/5) - Okay, beaten odds-on favorite in a short field. Surely that signifies a horse that should have won and didn\'t, right? Not really. She was inside the whole trip, and stalking from the outside was a filly named My Miss Aurelia, who would go on to finish second in Royal Delta\'s tour de force BC Distaff.

IT\'S TRICKY (2011 Cotillion - 2nd at 6/5) - Probably ran a bit below form, but on the other hand, she was chasing loose-on-lead Plum Pretty, who ran out of her mind that day, earning a career-best 108 Beyer in a romping victory. And if It\'s Tricky did perform below her best, it wasn\'t because of a quick turnaround, as the Cotillion was run that year in October, giving the filly six weeks since her previous start at Saratoga.

[bellsbendboy]

Difficult to take Frosted here at something to five.  Tapit colt is not exactly a win machine and spots serious poundage.

Would expect Mr. Z to zoom to the front after the cutback in last. Though given his remarkable 17 races in 14 months with 9 different boys... doubt he stays there.

For me, its the other Tapit a 1.55 million baby that has been immature thru out his career but looks set for his best.  Gorgeous roan is out of a grade three winner (Tempted) and a half to a grade one queen (Test) and gets seven pounds from the favorite, Mikey and should sit second behind the speed.

Late June effort against older was a rare flipped dirt heat and he won\'t have to improve much of that effort to make his presence felt here.  Bet hard in West Virginia but things did not work out well for him.  Tacked up two days prior for a gallop, but for some reason the track was closed and he pitched a bitch.  On the backside warming up Mikey said he was very full of himself and acting a fool, then broke soft, took a ton of dirt, was on the wrong part of the track and still made a solid middle move but the damage was done and he hung a bit.

Jerry had to work him eight days later at Delmar and he worked well into the El Cajon but was scratched for this spot... ten times the purse catches this trainers attention.

Stablemate a race earlier and this colt have been working together and both are very playable at what may be double digit odds.

As for the sophomore sprint strongly prefer the three time stakeswinner over the three time maiden claimer non winner.  bbb

[Wrongly]

Should we applaud or just sigh in this case?

[mjellish]

Off the top of my head I would say the answer to that question depends upon if you bet the winner at 13-1 or not.

[Tavasco]

Nice claim!

A1 ROTW winner.

Super run on the turn as previously.

[Wrongly]

Jelly

Had small win and alive in PK4 due to TG figs.  Still I hate to see these type of trainers get rewarded.  You must either play them or skip the race.

Just saw a tweet in which Preciado stated, \"we think Trouble Kid might be allergic to Lasix, so we cut it.\"

[TGJB]

That quote is a classic.

[mjellish]

He was 14-1 2 min to post and fastest on TG getting 4 lbs from high weights with controlling early speed from good inside post on a track and distance he likes.  Odds offset risks for sure.

[miff]

A major fork in Upstart,could not look worse! Fraud-sted toyed with that field.

[ringato3]

Mike

No offense, but u are way late with that fork.... (Showing up with the fork two hours after the last of the lasagna was eaten.....)

I assume u will stop giving him mulligans now?   He ran for maybe 5/8 of a mile today.

Maybe time to revisit frank d\'s point about mismanagement, although i still think he is just another \"over the top\" early in the 3 year old season horse.

Rob.

[Tavasco]

Owner Ms. Hopkins & trainer Preciado are experienced  in their act. Below is a link to a Ray Paulick story from back in April where the duo claimed  a 1 for 31 hopeless laggard from GP for $12.5 and then routed an ALWnw1x field of seven a little while later after remodeling.  

Hopkins & Preciado

I googled Barbara Hopkins and all I found was a chemistry professor @ Xavier University in Cincinnati no horse women in Philly. I\'m curious. While Preciado can apparently move most all horses up he apparently looks for a particular physical ailment for targeted claims.

My observation of other move up trainers seemed to indicate the trainers  install stamina in their projects. The horses just seemed not to tire or decelerate and improved their numbers in that way.

Preciado seems to do even more. Trouble Kid as an example went roughly :22 & :44 for the 1st half mile. So somehow Preciado has, in addition to adding stamina, increased raw speed by seconds per quarter mile?

Richiebee points out the issues of gelding and front bandages as maladies which can be cured with marked performance improvements. I\'m curious about what conditions could explain a dramatic increase in velocity in short distances like the 1st and 2nd quarter mile?

Lastly, is it our observation that move up sheets increase or decrease bouncy bouncy tendencies? Again cool ROTW selection for several reasons. Trainer KM gets off the schneid and Colebrooks confidence warranted.

[mjellish]

Maybe he looks for horses that are allergic to lasix, but rather than get them off it he just cuts it with spring water.

I\'ve been noticing my buddies just seemed to keep going and going as soon as they started cutting their Jack Daniels with water, coke, or diet coke. And as far as i know they arent even allergic to the stuff.

Must be something to it.

[miff]

\"He ran for maybe 5/8 of a mile today\"

Rob,

Upstart\'s performance falls under the \"didn\'t run a step category\" which is to say, when they run that badly, figs are irrelevant, even when the fig comes up ok, though his won\'t.

Upstart took a strong late flash $$ which give me some pre race confidence(needed him or 4,5 for nice pick 4) Sure the connections are scratching their heads esp if he came out fine.

Mike