ROTW

[miff]

\"DaLute\" takes them pretty far in this one\'


Joe B,

GDL has a sprint figure, two back, that can beat Fraud-sted who looks solid on all numbers.Distance on Sat looks to be his outer limit.

Good luck

Mike

[TGJB]

In fact, to bring this string full circle, I think I\'ll do the Gallant Bob as ROTW tomorrow.

What, me worry?

[Blueskies]

\"move up\" sheet?

[Tavasco]

I like several numbers in this race and in order of appreciation.

a. 20 twenty to one is the m/l price of War Story. My argument is subjective, Although he won his first two races, I make him a late developer and I saw his finish in the WVD a similar tip off as was Keen Ice\'s Haskell finish I see him as improving plus a new trainer not unfamiliar with \"move up\" venues.

b. 2 War Story has beaten Keen Ice twice and was liked by many early from this years discounted FG crop. Completely irrelevant to math players but best I could come up with late night for #2.

c. 3 this is his 3rd race off his KD clunker he consistently runs in the top 3 in large part because of his running style. He may not catch the winner or figure in the horizontals - hey, sometimes we have to take what we can get.

I also consider Hollendorfer\'s decision to run Iron Fist back puzzling. IF made what looked to be a winning move @ Mnr and flattened out noticeable. After all he is one of a select few to have beaten American Pharoah. Yes meaningless, other than to tip much was expected of him early and he c/b another late developer. Alas, the Smith/Hollendorfer discount is deep.

[miff]

\"move up\" sheet? Trouble Kid

[Fairmount1]

Horse has really blossomed under the care of a trainer that shows patience, gives horses more rest than most trainers, really has a beat on hind end work others don\'t worry about and really has horsemanship skills most guys today just don\'t possess.  

On a completely unrelated note, has anyone ever noticed a strong trend that parx shippers to Mth rarely replicate their form at the Shore?

[jbelfior]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I like several numbers in this race and in order
> of appreciation.
>
> a. 20 twenty to one is the m/l price of War Story.
> My argument is subjective, Although he won his
> first two races, I make him a late developer and I
> saw his finish in the WVD a similar tip off as was
> Keen Ice\'s Haskell finish I see him as improving
> plus a new trainer not unfamiliar with \"move up\"
> venues.
>
> b. 2 War Story has beaten Keen Ice twice and was
> liked by many early from this years discounted FG
> crop. Completely irrelevant to math players but
> best I could come up with late night for #2.
>
> c. 3 this is his 3rd race off his KD clunker he
> consistently runs in the top 3 in large part
> because of his running style. He may not catch the
> winner or figure in the horizontals - hey,
> sometimes we have to take what we can get.
>
> I also consider Hollendorfer\'s decision to run
> Iron Fist back puzzling. IF made what looked to be
> a winning move @ Mnr and flattened out noticeable.
> After all he is one of a select few to have beaten
> American Pharoah. Yes meaningless, other than to
> tip much was expected of him early and he c/b
> another late developer. Alas, the
> Smith/Hollendorfer discount is deep.


War Story an interesting thought. I think you\'re better off concentrating the expected improvement in the 2 and 3 holes of your tri ticket---of course assuming a fair track.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

You don\'t need a weather man to know the way the wind blows...

[jbelfior]

Two more examples if you get the sheets for The Noble Damsel (career top for 5yo Coffee Clique at Parx) and the PA Derby (Ian Wilkes tomorrow with the \"dangerous\" Island Town).

Wait,is this the same Ian Wilkes who would need a GPS to find the Saratoga winner\'s circle?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

Those aren\'t close to the level of the two trained by Preciado. Not in the same universe.

We\'re talking about a horse getting kicked around for maiden 15, and two starts later he runs fast enough to win a graded race.

I bet the Wilkes horse in that race, he was a clear bet off the pattern and buried race.

[Fairmount1]

It IS a great game!!!

[Coronado98]

I am not coming up with anything I can sink into here.  If I were to bet this one, I would go with Catalina Red.

In the Cotillion I\'m coming up with Chatterbox.  Then again, a lot of people will be on this one too.  The PA Derby has Frosted as the quickest on the TGs, but he also had that same edge two back as a top weight and he didn\'t win.  Going with Upstart here, horses that faced American Pharoah in two straight starts or more have come back winning or running with marked improvement.  Mr. Z and Madefromlucky are the two in the PPs that you can see this pattern.

[Tavasco]

So I just read the ROTW write-up. Since the term \"we\" was used, I assume a collaboration of TGJB & TGAB at least. Actually I picture someone, whomever, made Trouble Kids sheet after either that last race or the one before it. Standing and insisting that everyone in the TG office had to \"look at this sheet.\"

Since the \"Jet up\" is incredulous it begs a showcase and the Gallant Bob provides just such a spotlight. What else is there to conclude but PED\'s? Prior to going on, I want to say that, while concise, the ROTW analysis is persuasive and objective as always.

In my handicapping, I like to look between the lines, searching for some esoteric trivia that 90% of the time has no bearing on the world of causation. aka Kool Aid.

This time my cursory detective work turned up Trouble Kid a) four different owners and four different trainers to date. I only noticed one claim so a couple of title transfers suggests the horse has been on the radar for awhile.

Then there is the past running lines and the name. Trouble Kid and this one has seen its share in his short career. He has been, checked, steadied, bobbles a start and worn down then caught late prior to just running off and avoiding any possible problem in his last two.

Since I am not an expert I speculate on race dynamics. In this race Trouble Kid must run with other fast horses not mdn claimers. Fast as he is there is potential for a troubled trip, and or bounce say.. 40%. Catalina Red stands to benefit from what I anticipate as an honest fast pace, yet also is 50/50 to lose some ground and will need to pass more than a couple I expect.

I would like Hebbronville but for the price, weight and short rest as noted by TG, that is I can forgive a TG 2 knocking the hell out of a two year old, maybe even view the pattern as sitting on new top now. Believing Colebrook to be patient man Limousine Liberal\'s performance in the 7 Furlong King\'s Bishop still impresses and off that same race wouldn\'t touch Gran Bili now, my choice then.

Yes the Gallant Bob is funny odd, and maybe pathetic ridiculous.

[Topcat]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Yes the Gallant Bob is funny odd, and maybe
> pathetic ridiculous.


As Porky Pig would say, \"That\'s PARX, folks!\" (cue \"The Merry-Go-Round Broke Down\")

[Blueskies]

So are move up sheets identifiable by prediction or mostly in arrears?
Is it obvious to you in a predictive manner or post hoc?
I\'m obviously a little off the score here.....