A Fan's Notes

[richiebee]

... trying to clear up the desk at Living Room Downs, coming across some notes
from Friday, August 21, the day before the Alabama. This was a day that I
decided to head upstate while riding the elevator downstairs after a night of
work. No hotel reservation, no change of clothes. A Saturday card I was not
fond of, so there was about a 95% chance, barring some kind of wild score, that
this would be what they call in the horse van business \"race and return\".

Gas and tolls for the 9 hour round trip (includes two hour recovery nap) =
approx $85; NYRA vig parking and admission = $17. That\'s a quick $100 before
cashing a single bet...

... which the records show that I did not. Hopefully the days notes will yield
a winning result somewhere down the trail.

Since none of the T-generates in residence were in attendance on this day, and
the T-generate ritual grounds seemed to have been leased by Uncle Bill to a
friendly pack of Kentuckians, I headed upstairs and hung out with my friend
Scotty, who I have known from the racetrack since 1981 and who has worked as a
Vet\'s assistant in Florida for the last 15 years; every third year or so he has
the opportunity to work the entire Saratoga meet.

I always jokingly ask Scotty questions about trainers and horses he is involved
in the treatment of, questions I know he can not and will not answer. On this
day my question involved the 7YO Bug Juice, currently trained by Patricia
Farro. My question was if Scotty thought it odd that Bug Juice ran a lifetime
top (more pronounced on Beyer than TG) as a 6YO one week after being claimed by
Steve Klesaris. Scotty gave the usual shrug of the shoulders.The point here is
that at that advanced age and with so little time in the new barn a lot of the
\"good horse husbandry\" move up techniques are likely not a factor.

The feature race on that Friday was the Schenectady, a 5-1/2 furlong turfer for
2YOs named for the town that once lit and hauled the world. My memory is that
there were two early scratches and two gate scratches, leaving a field of four.
The winner was the NY bred Too Discreet, a full brother to Grade 1 quality NY
bred Discreet Marq. This colt broke with the leaders, ended up checking fairly
severely and ultimately blew past the dueling leaders while taking a funny
step. This fella still has lessons to learn -- he was not comfortable with the
assistant starters -- and really should have a bright future.

Can we cash a bet? Hopefully Chris Clement will give this 2/2 colt a chance to
run with open company at the top of his class, much as his sister did, and
probably most trainers (probably not Clement) would be curious to see if this
guy can perform on dirt.You see, they have this series of dirt races for 3YOs
in the Spring...

On to the final race of the day.Soon after passing through the gate I ran into
Bad Luck Benny, who keeps telling me -- half jokingly I guess -- that he wants
to become the world\'s best known Latino (do not call him Hispanic) steeplechase
rider. Benny grabbed my program and told me \"We got a banker (final leg single)
in the late P4 today.\" Benny pointed out the #5, Marking, a 3YO Godolphin/KMac
first time starter by Bernardini out of Seventh Street (the dam won the Go For
Wand at the Spa and the Apple Blossom). I took my pen and crossed out \"5-1\" in
the program and wrote \"4/5\"

\"What are you doing?\" Benny asked.

\"Benny I\'ve been on the grounds about 10 minutes and you\'re the third guy whose
told me about this colt, how he\'s the best working horse in KMac\'s barn, blah
blah blah \"

So of course we wait the whole day for the day\'s world\'s fastest horse and
Marking, who Maggie offered \"looks fast\", is unruly in the gate and is
scratched while 4/5.

Marking. Godolphin. He was hyped. He was bet. Keep an eye out for him.

Of the colts who actually ran in that race, if you are a trip guy or visual
handicapper, take a look at the second place finisher, Bokeelia Island, who
missed it all by a neck or so after trailing the field to the quarter pole and
not running necessarily straight through the lane. Do not know how this stretch
run translates in terms of fractions and final time, but to my naked eye this
was a Brilliant! burst of speed. If I am guilty of optical delusion please tell
me. Bokeelia is a Phipps product by Med D Oro out of Matlacha Pass, making him
kin to Alabama winner Pine Island, who tragically broke down in the BC Distaff
in 2007. (A 2YO half to Bokeelia Island, by Bernardini, ran third in the second
race on Travers Day).

Too Discreet. Marking. Bokelia Island. Just got to hope they are spotted
somewhere where a decent mutuel is available. Or maybe where they are a
\"single\" or maybe even a \"banker\" in a multiple race wager.

[PapaChach]

Wish we had some way to tip posts here; especially with Gifford\'s recent passing. using the title of Exley\'s masterpiece deserves some sort of recognition, even if that use hadn\'t been attached to a post of the type of excellence that Richie regularly spoils us with.

One especially enthusiastic reviewer said \"A Fan\'s Notes\" was the \"best book written in the English language since \'The Great Gatsby.\'\" That may be a little over the top, but to a life-long Upper Hudson Valley native who pleads guilty to all charges, just in general and on principle, Exley is something of a hero; one of us drinking, day-dreaming upstaters who did something with his talent for a change.

I actually have a copy of \"A Fan\'s Notes\" on permanent residence on the nightstand, along with \"Twelve Years A Slave\" and \"The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty.\"

The former is tough to read, the latter is tough to read in a different, easier, and sentimental way, bringing me back the way it does to the fall of 2001, an autumn that while an awful and tragic time for the nation as a whole, was something of a sweet spot on personal level. And yes, I feel guilty about that. It took bittersweet to a whole other level, one that would not be approached until I was a grieving widower six falls later.

The meet was a minor success for me; one Sunday beer-buzz-induced stab made on the basis of some TG breeding info made the whole thing for me. Sorry for the redboarding, but it happened, and I\'m not claiming I made a fortune; was right around a yard plus after forty days. If you add up what I spent on TG for Saturday card numbers plus the hours spent analyzing it all, I doubt I made minimum wage on it. I could give it all up and flip burgers for the six weeks and make out the same or better, but then, it\'s hard to find things I enjoy more than ruminating over whether that new top of 8.75 was a jumping off point or a knock-out number.

It was hotter than hell up there today, but I was with my boy, who is finally back after a two-year hiatus. He bounced bad after his Dad, mentor to both of us, passed away, but today, while we stood near the windows before the seventh, back and forth about what to do next, I could see he finally had bought back in.

And that was the biggest win of the season. Already praying I make it to 2016.........

[richiebee]

PapaChach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> One especially enthusiastic reviewer said \"A Fan\'s
> Notes\" was the \"best book written in the English
> language since \'The Great Gatsby.\'\"

\"Exley wrote, in short, like what he was: a middle aged unpublished novelist tuning up to write his magnum opus just as soon as he finished one last drink.\"
                     
 Walter Kirn, Slate Magazine

[miff]

Marking. Godolphin. He was hyped. He was bet. Keep an eye out for him.

Bee,

As your friend said,Marking will have to hidden in a multi race sequence.Know he out worked a Kiaran stakes horse,don\'t recall if it was Frosted or not but it was an older quality horse.Clockers all buzzing about Marking.

Two year old colts very common this year at SPA in spite of regal breeding and big prices paid for quite a few of them.

Mike

[richiebee]

Miff

Marking is a 3YO, but your point about the expensive East coast 2YOs was borne
out yesterday as we had the second Cal invader win a graded 2YO stake. Easily.

[miff]

Bee,


Yes 3 yr old, same day/race another clocker touted expensive Pletcher, Farraj, also scratched,came back and ran up the track.Clocker info this year a mini disaster overall, few winners here and there, tough meet all around.

Ralis came in very slow on TG but co-fastest on Beyer.Figs for 8/15 Sallisaw race need a look back imo.

SPA 2 yr old filly rave, Rachels Valentina, will have to deal with Cali\'s Songbird, potential star off two impressive wins.


Mike

[Agastache]

Worst clocker error for me was the one that talked me off of Runhappy in the King\'s Bishop.  This popular clocker claimed that Runhappy was badly mismanaged and refused to work in the morning.  Wish I could get the chance to mismanage a horse that fast.

After purchasing several reports this summer, I\'ve come to the conclusion that they are only useful for evaluating first time starters. Seemingly all info for experienced horses is irrelevant.

[miff]

That clocker received a ton of flak about that particular horse which he knocked mercilessly.Seems all clockers have days where the morning works just don\'t translate to the afternoon performance.

[BitPlayer]

I wonder if there is an East-West difference.  I recall TGJB mentioning in a post the importance of clocker reports when he was playing a contest on the West coast (Del Mar maybe?).  I don\'t recall if it was only for first time starters.

[Agastache]

I don\'t have a problem with taking a stand. That\'s part of the game. I didn\'t quite understand why he had to insult the trainer of the horse in the process.

Also backfired on Jess\'s Dream. Basically, persuading his readers to not use the horse. Proclaimed this on Twitter, as well.

[miff]

Bit,

California is the original land of the clocker. In recent years, Mike Welsch, Bruno De Julio and two others that sell privately to whales became the East Coast guys.Cali clocker who moves the board, more than the others,is Andy Harrington.

Clocker reports more popular than ever as players seek an edge. Overall,and in the absence of being there at 6am, think they are good, much better than pp\'s with works and no comments.

Mike

[miff]

Ag,

Guy is very outspoken, assume TGJB can attest to that.

Mike

[ringato3]

Mike,

I think Clocker reports are a tough call.  I like having the information.  Is is worth the $10 a day?  I make maybe 3 or 4 multi-race bets on a card when i am actively gambling.  I invest $160 to $200 on each bet, so maybe somewhere between $500 and $800 in total.  So, depending on which end, I am paying between 1.25% and 2% of a fee for this information.  Doesn\'t sound like a lot.  But then I am paying $25 for sheets, $3 for the PPs and then trying to beat a 23% takeout on exotics.  

Used to use Harrington religiously, then lost the faith two years back.  He had an unbelievably disgusting 2 day Breeder\'s Cup sequence in California.  The worst part for him was that he and Welsch were polar opposite on maybe 10 to 12 horses and almost every one ran to Welsch\'s interpretation of the works.  Also, in y opinion the guy Harrington works for next exactly a stellar human being, if that matters.  (it did to me, as I dropped the workout reports with that being part of the reason)

Morning workout to afternoon performance is never going to directly correlate but I want to at least see a horse that is working lights out show some run in the afternoon.  

I think the reason many \"flock\" to workout reports now is the never ending search for \"THE\" answer.  For everybody except BBB, the game is very difficult and a daily learning process.  We all want a quick fix as to the answer.  Having played this game for a lot of years, there is no easy answer or \"Cliff\'s Notes\" edition to winning.

Rob

[mjellish]

My two cents on clockers.  

Too much emphasis on the work itself.  Not enough on how the horse comes out of the work, which is more important IMO.  If a horse has just an ok or average work and then comes out of it galloping better than it ever has, I would rather make a bet on that than someone who has a tremendous work and comes out of it seemingly worse for wear.  Materiality comes to mind of late, to name one.

It\'s also not about how fast they work, it\'s about how they do it that matters.  And this is more an individual thing.  Most of the time trainers and clockers are looking at how well a horse finishes.  But that\'s not always the whole story.  A closer who shows more early speed and maybe tires a bit late in a work can still be a sign of a horse that is suddenly waking up and moving forward, especially a young one.  Keen Ice comes to mind, of late.

Lastly, it really pays to have a clocker that knows the horse.  For example, I would contend that Welsch is going to have better clocker reports over the winter in Florida than anywhere else because he is based there.  He gets to know the horses.  And that really helps you notice when they are doing something different than they usually do, either positive or negative,  Much more so than say watching Beholder work twice before the Breeders Cup when you\'ve never seen her work before.  Good horses generally work fairly well.  So how are you supposed to know when they are working better or worse than usual if you don\'t know the horse?

And if you like a horse a fair amount, and are getting good odds, are you going to let a negative comment from a clocker who you don\'t know personally sway your opinion?  Especially if that clocker hasn\'t also told you in their report that they know the horse well and here is why this is a negative comment for this horse?  

If you\'ve ever tried to clock horses, or been around someone who has, it\'s an almost impossible task to get to know them all.  It\'s very chaotic. Some trainers work from the 1/16th poles, there are very few saddle cloths, many are working at the same time, the renovation break can change the whole track, the trainers may be trying to teach them something or so something different, there are shippers in and out, etc...  Those are just a few of the variables.  Imagine trying to keep track of all of that, every day, and also being able to keep track of the jogs and gallops coming out.  I take my hat off to people like Bruno, Harrington, Welsch, and their teams.  And I think those services are worth it as another data point.  

But unless I know they know the horse, I\'m not letting it change my opinion.  Better to pick a few key horses that may be racing on big days, say 40 of them, and make sure you have eyes on them to know how they are going day to day...  and sometimes pick up a few of the bonus ones along the way.

[bellsbendboy]

Another solid post MJ, been your M.O. for a while here.

For me, as usual its the horse. Trainers that treat them as individuals are rewarded in the long run. This newish age of racing managers and \"hands on\" owners has resulted in more accountability from trainers and many now operate on a by the book regimen; which makes work out interpretation a bit easier.  Toss out the factories; Pletcher, Double B etc. and eliminating small barns can lead to a better understanding of workouts and by association clocker reports.

Not to get long winded but a single good work may mean nothing; I am much more interested in the pattern. Works are printed in the DRF and you can pull up previous works clicking on work out search, name of horse.

Gone are the days when we could sneak a horse with a fraudulent saddle cloth, thru a different gap, on Tuesdays, the clockers day off, enter and get a huge pari-mutuel edge.  In California, when you work, you must report prior to such, the horse and the distance.

This past weekend Nyquist, the 400k Uncle Mo galloped in the grade one. He broke his maiden under duress from the rail nicely and O\'Neill had to lag him into the Best Pal with a series of nothing halfs.  Workout reports would have been somewhat useless. Then after annexing that stake he actually had a work termed a breeze by the clocker; very rare out west!

Of more interest may be OM who took down the Dmr Derby. In the prep, he was favored over Prospect Park and worked into that race fine... aside from his three day out, blowout in :35, much too keen.  Danny fired the journeyman and hired a world class rider who worked him in 52, 1:16 and talked the trainer out of the blinkers.  The blowout was :38 and the Munnings colt won simple!

In conclusion, finally, the pattern of workouts can tell a \'capper a lot more than an individual morning effort.
 

Miff, Andy is excellent especially on exclusions.  Would print more if the board permitted.

Ringato, nothing easy here I spend more time on a pick four sequence than it takes to play a round of golf.

Tenet or assertion on closing, sure. I strongly value the time after a horse races and when he works back again. Most work back in ten to fourteen days.  If this time frame is extended; I would view it as a big negative. bbb