Tenet Number 31

[bellsbendboy]

Since there appears a hangover after the big horse got nailed, thought i\'d toss out a tenet, although most of my motivation is my growing addiction to children\'s tales and dirty windshields.

DUMP THE MORNING LINE!!

For many here, an assertion I realize, you play on a given certain day and decide on betting that particular day, perhaps even a week in advance.  Further assuming you purchase the DRF, online, at least in California you get the past performances morning line free!

If you are a competent player you will come to relish being unencumbered by anothers\' opinion. To be fair,  the person making the line has you over a barrel, but on average these folks take thirty seconds to weight/assign ML\'s a race and make errors.

Sadly, there is no data for those types who will clamor for such, I cannot cite or provide much, other than I am a consistent winning player and strive to buy my forms before the track \'capper does his work.

Years ago the Red Mile ran an April meet with programs and no morning line and had to stop because people complained; you could play every race offered that meet with very solid opportunity.

More than a few will disregard this post as prattle and across the street it will fly over their collective heads, but test it yourself.

By any measure weight carried is an essential handicapping tool; so download a form with a handicap race and have a subordinate mark out the weights assigned. \"Cap the heat using your usual methods ( form, pace, TG, bris (hopefully not, turf rail, track condition, etc.) and assign your own weight. After a handful of races if your personal assigned weights are more (on average) than 1.5 pounds off per horse you are likely in the bottom twenty percent of people that regularly bet. bbb

[Dick Powell]

Assertion Police alert!

\"on average these folks take thirty seconds to weight/assign ML\'s a race and make errors.\"

I can agree with some of your premises but thirty seconds? Have you ever talked to someone that makes a morning line?

[bellsbendboy]

To be fair Dick exactly once and it was some time ago.

Old River Downs in Cincinnati on a Tuesday morning with a scheduled golf game with the racing secretary.  Drawing entries downstairs seemed to take forever as it often does and I was worried about making the tee time.

I followed him ( not naming the gentleman; he was still a racing official in Ky a few years ago) upstairs and into his 4ft by 8ft office.  He immediately began his 5-2\'s, 3-1\'s etc and twice looked on the wall behind his desk where he had cut out the drf charts, scotch taped each day races and had the hung on a nail with paper clips.

In a period no longer than ten minutes he had both days morning lines finished. He stood grabbing his two sheets of paper handed them to the girl in the next closet over and we headed to the course.

I realize times have changed but ...   bbb

[Dick Powell]

Ha. So should I call the anecdotal evidence police instead of the assertion police? Glad you fessed up.

Years ago, I did the morning line for the Dubai Racing Carnival. Horses shipping in from all over the world, only a form guide to go by. It would take me close to four hours and I had to take into account that about half the pool included south African money so when Mike de Kock or Herman Brown had a starter, there were going to be over bet. That would be the extreme anecdote from the other direction.

Just curious, how did his morning line hold up on those two days?
Dick