King's Bishop

[ringato3]

Patrick

Wasted Flintshire.  Tough game to be stubborn with.   Invested 300 bucks in pick 3 ending in travers.   Singling private zone and Flintshire.  Then 150 dollars to Texas red, 90 dollars to frosted and 60 dollars to upstart.

Figured if the two chalks won and somehow pharaoh stubbed his toe I \"had to cash\"

A Buddy said he was going to do something similar but was adding keen ice.   Suggested shouldn\'t I just add $30 or something on the \"only other\" horse that could win.

My \"know it all\" response was \"keen ice is a slug, too many fast horses would have to not show up for him to win.   I don\'t want to waste a nickel on a slug\"
 
Famous last words....   $30 bet about 6k.

Rob

[FrankD.]

Nor I Rob, you could have given me a truck load of rubles, shekels, yen, euros or any other currency de jour and I could not have bet this horse.

As for Sr.(top shelf) Violette go to the NYRA media guide and he lists his career  highlight as winning a pair of Grade III\'s with Samarat !!!

Be well my friend as I\'m working on tomorrow cause I got F\'in crushed today!!!

Frank D.

[ringato3]

Boscar,

I don\'t \"trust you\".  No offense.

It wasn\'t a loaded race.  I posted that this morning when frank d posted his pick 4 ticket.   Good race to take a stab.   Competitive edge over rated and maybe off form and holy boss, while fast, was going 7 furlongs (and sure enough he flattened out the last furlong)

They bet a horse off a maiden win down to 7/2.   Silly and a sign the race was anything but loaded.

If holy boss didn\'t get the 7 furlongs, anybody could win.   He didn\'t And they did.  

Rob

[Fairmount1]

I\'ll let Boscar and Mathcapper explain what the odds on the Ellis Park horses should be based on the multi payoffs and double will pays.  But based on the win odds which one should have paid more?(or what would you guess)?  More sharpies in the late pick 4?  Or Runhappy was way longer in the stakes pick 4?

Check my math but....


Races 8-11, 41 horses in sequence

$24.60  (11)  7th choice
$5.20  (12)  Favorite
$4.00  (  Favorite
$34.00  (10) 5th choice

Pick 4: $9,500.00 for $2.00
$2 parlay $2,174.64

Races 10-13, 39 horses in sequence

$4.00  (  Favorite
$34.00  (10)  5th choice
$17.00  (9)  6th choice
$21.40  (12) 6th choice

Pick 4:  $6237.00 for $2.00
$2 parlay $6184.60

[ringato3]

Thanks paul.

Understand your point.  

On your other point, have a feeling u are right and we don\'t see AP again.

No great choices.   Train for 9 weeks into a 1 1/4 mile race?  Eh.   Squeeze another prep into what looked like a tired horse. Double Eh.

Rob

[FrankD.]

Fairmont,

Your crystal ball does not need cleaning!!!
I had this very conversation with Rocky (mathcapper) YESTERDAY in the back yard about multi race payouts being skewed by 1/2 or less shots either in or out of it.

I\'ll let Rocky answer.

Astute observation, please don\'t make it a tenet!

Frank D.

[ringato3]

Late pick 4 paid poorly.  (Different point than u are making).   With AP beat, now way it should pay parlay.

$17.00 was 7/2 ML
$21.60 was 5-1 ML

That has some impact.   But late pick 4 was weak.

Rob

[Fairmount1]

FrankD.

Are you taking a shot at the pick 6 tomorrow?

[FrankD.]

Fairmont,

I\'m not a pick 6 player. I used to be in a syndicate that pumped a lot into 2 plus day carryovers. We had ups and downs, some issues with who took the IRS hits etc...

I stay with pick 3\'s and 4\'s occasionally 5\'s, the rainbow 6, reasonable amounts.
If I bet into a 3rd day of a carryover be it 2, 3, or 5K I\'m wasting my money against the big boys unless I have a strong opinion in 2 races for a possible single or at least a strong A ticket. I can\'t compete with the guys that put 20K or more into a sequence.

Private Message Belmont 3 if your interested in getting involved in a small piece of a large syndicate. He plays in one that is capped by a very notable TG player.

Frank D.

[moosepalm]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> As Frank D posted just now simultaneously, they be
> the guys with the bulging suitcases.


I will, on occasion, track double probables, and I did so today.  The money came in on this horse in waves.  Nothing else remotely close to it, the rest of the day.  Turned out to be useful information, but that is not always the case.  With sizable pools, today, it was not easy to move the chains as much as they did.  I did a little redboard due diligence on Maria Borell.  She\'s been in the game for twenty years.  Worked for Tagg, among others, and also as a vet technician.  TG has her for 25 starts, and a 12% win rate.  There\'s an interesting back story here, and that\'s simply because it\'s an unusual confluence of variables and circumstances.

[Fairmount1]

All from Bloodhorse article:  http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/94030/runhappy-romps-to-record-kings-bishop-score

\"We were pretty confident going in,\" Borell remarked. \"He couldn\'t have been training any better and we wouldn\'t have spent the money to come up here if we thought he couldn\'t win. I was a little nervous at the early fractions but I knew he could do it. We really prepared him well at home. I knew he was good, but that was really good.\"

Runhappy, who races without the anti-bleeding medication furosemide, was ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado as part of a 117-pound impost and returned $24.60, $13.80, and $6.70 at odds of 11-1.

\"I don\'t like drugs and I don\'t want to run on Lasix if a horse doesn\'t need it,\" Borell told the Saratoga Special in their Aug. 29 edition. \"Runhappy doesn\'t need it and he\'s run Lasix-free in all of his starts.\"

\"The plan was to break good out of the gate,\" Prado said. \"He was doing everything so easy and I was very confident in him going into the first turn. When he started pricking his ears and looking for competition, that made me feel good. When I asked him on the top of the stretch and he picked it up, I knew we were in good shape.\"

\"I\'m overwhelmed,\" Borell said. \"I knew he was a good horse or we wouldn\'t have bought him up here. I\'m just so lucky to have this opportunity now with this horse. I\'d like to thank James McIngvale and his racing manager Laura Wohlers. He\'s just an amazing horse.\"

_______________________________

McIngvale is a previous Baffert owner who a decade ago or so filed suit against Baffert and bloodstock agents.  Google it if you are interested in more details.  I believe he owned Wimbledon, a Baffert Derby starter if memory serves.

[Al Caught Up]

interesting she\'s been in the game that long--if she\'s the same person who comes up when you google her, she looks like she\'s in her 20s. Was very forthright in what I\'ve read about not using Lasix. anyway, I use another product but the horse did not look like a toss, nor did Limousine Liberal. That doesn\'t explain why the deflated odds relative to the morning line on either of them--and LL was 30-1 on the ML and bet down to 15-1 at post time. Interesting!

[Boscar Obarra]

I looked her up pre race and found enough info to make this an interesting  prop. That\'s the beauty of Living Room Downs.

 Post race forensics seem to reveal  the owner as a man for whom betting 100k would not be a problem.

[Boscar Obarra]

ringato3 Wrote:
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> If holy boss didn\'t get the 7 furlongs, anybody
> could win.   He didn\'t And they did.  
>
> Rob


 Usually, when anybody can win, they don\'t set a stakes record.

 Not sure what about my analysis  you\'re not trusting. The price, the time , or the result?

  This is a very difficult game, especially predicting things.  But if you\'re not going to accept what actually happens on the track and at the windows, and prefer to keep to some preconceived notion, you have no shot.

[ringato3]

Boxcar,

You made a major assertion which was so unprovable, it is funny.  \"The horse was 20-1 by the public and made 10-1 by a select few.   Trust me\"

Sorry, a dumb statement.

U and I don\'t know who bet what.  

As for the lecture on accepting results vs preconceived opinions, save that lecture for somebody who needs it.  

U said it was a \"loaded field\".  It wasn\'t.  I said that before the race.   Said the favorites were very beatable.

I didn\'t have the winner and he ran a hole in the wind.  I saw it and respect it.   The conspiracy theory bullshit is for losers who need excuses to feel better.  I don\'t.   I didn\'t have the winner.  Period.  

Rob