Zayat says

[johnnym]

A.P to run in Travers if up to him..
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/93412/zayat-american-pharoah-to-run-in-travers

[jbelfior]

What\'s the over/under between now and then of \"Keen Ice upsetting AP/Graveyard of Favorites\" posts?  

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

None by Thoro-Graph players. a) Very unlikely Baffert will run at Saratoga-- he has a history of getting big numbers at Mth, but not at Saratoga, and b) Keen Ice will not be a play for TG users. And whether AP runs or not that will be one of the toughest Travers fields ever from a figure perspective.

One thing that\'s clear at this point is that I got the Derby right, more because of KI than AP.

Beyer was ballpark for both 3yo races this weekend.

[P-Dub]

JB,

Why can Baffert get them to run at Monmouth, but not Saratoga?

Would it have to do with Monmouth being kinder to speed? Saratoga being a track more neutral to running styles??

Does testing have anything to do with it?

Disappointing if AP doesn\'t run in the Travers.

[johnnym]

Can u expand on the K.Ice Derby comment? I don\'t get it.

[miff]

Rags had AP in the TG minus -1.50 range

[TGJB]

His sheet would make no sense if his Derby figure was slower. It would mean he jumped way forward for no reason in the Belmont and then didn\'t bounce. Sheet looks much better this way.

(AP also paired his top, the Derby number, but we all think he could have run at least a little faster Saturday. The faster you think he could have run, the less likely his Derby was worse).

[TGJB]

I think they\'re more like 4-5 slower now, on those occasions they get it right.

[TGJB]

A reason would be conjecture. But look at Bayern\'s sheet for a refresher, in the BC Archives. If someone wants to make a list we can take a look, I know Point Given ran big, not sure about others.

Lots of Baffert 3yos look really good at Monmouth...

[miff]

Zayat/Baffert could take the easy road and beat up on The Little Sisters Of The Poor in the PA Derby, then BC Classic finale.Nice horses lined up for Travers but with no real early gas amongst that group, AP a walk in the park if he repeats his Haskell

If AP goes Travers, Upstart should go PA Derby.

[miff]

JB,

Problem has been looked at long enough. There is no constant in converting Rags to any other credible fig maker. Use 3, 3.5 or 4 depending on which way the wind blows, so to speak.

mike

[TGJB]

His record there aside, I can\'t see Baffert running at Saratoga AND running at Parx before the BC, and I also can\'t see him going straight from the Travers to the Classic-- we tried it with VG but that was because he got sick after the Travers. Unless he has no say it will be Parx, and a serious appearance fee.

[miff]

Not sure if true but hear Baffert and Zayat would each receive $250K for AP to run in PA Derby

[miff]

Paul,

With certainty can tell you that SPA dirt surface is usually nowhere near as tight as the tight surfaces AP has been running on.Both NYRA,pre Belmont, and Monmouth, pre Haskell were lobbied by AP connections for \"tight\"dirt surface...both delivered.

A careful review of Baffert runners affirm that they do much better on tight surfaces, many of them speed horses.

Mike

[Bet Twice]

It surprised me to see they were shipping ap back to Cali with the obvious targets being on the east coast.  Is that typical baffert move or could it be a tell on what he is thinking?