Go Jim Dandy Go Jim Dandy

Started by Tavasco, August 01, 2015, 04:56:16 PM

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Tavasco

Inside the numbers.

I thought 9/5 on Texas Red was generous given the field which means Frosteds celebrity had surpassed Texas Red\'s briefly. The triple crown spotlight is bright.Plus a nice ride by Kent D.

Am I correct in thinking the raw time was pedestrian. Which should not be a surprise Mott and Japan\'s strategy didn\'t figure to be time trial like.

So the race tactics explain why the stretch run looked like the group was running up a sand dune, or does it?

So now the performance figure gnomes will manufacture a # to represent how fast these horses ran. Ignoring the race dynamics because generally those have no bearing on final time.

I\'ll assume the top two finishers will head to the Travers and will be well regarded. I can not help but be dubious of MadefromLucky if he goes with a neg MNR #.

The key # to me was $30K the amount of Frammento\'s check?

I am envious of the those at the Spa having a great meal and fraternity.

jerry


ringato3

Tavasco,

Always easy after the race to point out generous odds/winners.  Beforehand not so easy.

Kent \"failed another breathalyzer\" Desormeaux undressed Rosario IMO.  Looking at the PPs, it was hard for me to envision Texas Red getting the trip stalking Japan, rather than Frosted being there.  Frosted supposed to get \"first run\" on the one paced Japan.  Excellent ride by Kent.  When \"on\", he can still be at the top of the game.

That said, more pace, a bigger field, 1 1/4 miles, Frosted will be tough in the Travers.  I give him and Texas Red about equal shots there.  Let\'s see who shows up.

Rob

FrankD.

You forgot to mention that Kent D. rode both horses into the first turn buying Rosario a root beer FLOAT you wide!

I thought Frosted ran very well; word up here was he was not trained very hard for today, August 29th is their main objective.

Frank D.

Tavasco

Ringato3

I read, Bloodhorse interview I believe, Kent saying he was breathing harder than Texas Red at the finish. Further the horse impressed him with the gallop out claiming Texas Red will be at his best over 1+1/4 or 1+1/2 distances.

Your point about first run seems fundamental. No one would draw up the race strategy as lets track Texas Red and then run by him in the homestretch?

According to Kent\'s claims of so much left in the tank whatever the number it needs a footnote to be meaningful and that\'s subjective consequently verboten. Disappointing to hear about the breathalyzer fail. I give TRed the edge going forward and longer and dare I say, a challenger to the big horse.

The luster of the BC is not forgotten and obviously I am still a fan.

ringato3

Frank D,

I hear you, but I am not buying the \"not trained hard\" line with Frosted (again).

Starting to believe Mike had it right with \"Fraudsted\".

First time out this year when Upstart dusted him, we were told \"wasn\'t trained hard\".  Then allegedly had breathing problems when he spit the bit next time.  Beat a weak Wood field (albeit with a fast figure), ran a pretty good Belmont and an average race today, with another \"next time will be our time\"

I will let this horse beat me going forward.  No mas, as Roberto Duran said.

Tavasco,

If the strategy was \"follow Texas Red\" then it was a stupid one.  Frosted much more natural speed, the catbird\'s seat was there for the taking, right off the flank of the very average Mott horse.  No excuse for Rosario to be multiple lengths behind a confirmed closer like TExas Red, down the backstretch.  Bad ride.



Rob

Boscar Obarra

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You forgot to mention that Kent D. rode both
> horses into the first turn buying Rosario a root
> beer FLOAT you wide!
>
> I thought Frosted ran very well; word up here was
> he was not trained very hard for today, August
> 29th is their main objective.
>
> Frank D.

I was more impressed with the stretch turn, when he came wide, inviting Frosted to an ApĂ©ritif then  quickly angling in and shutting down the hole.

 Also, maybe he does this all the time, but a supremely confident HAND ride the final 1/16th, even with Frosted lapped on? Looked like Frosted doesn\'t get to him if they go another 1/2 mile.

miff

Texas Red/Frosted 105 Beyers,like negative -1-ish on TG. Both ran well,thought Fraud-sted should have run Texas Red over late but was never getting to him.

Dont buy Fraud-sted not cranked bull either, horse ran right close to his norm. Definitely carries his head high, as noted here, may mean nothing or he reaches for his air a bit.

Would be nice to see AP and Upstart run well today and all show up for the Travers.

Lastly,Bob,AP is only 50-60% to win today vs one serious competitor?
miff

Michael D.

Frosted is like Tonalist. the latter burned even more money when JR, the hottest jock around, took over from Rosario. too soon, too late, didn\'t use the whip, got checked, stepped on a rock, wasn\'t cranked. oh lord. enough.

don\'t bet either when they are giving weight and/or against a pace bias. I don\'t care who the jockey is, other horses are likely to get better trips.

that said, Tonalist should be on equal weights for the first time in a while in the Whitney, and should get some pace to run at.

TGJB

Frosted spotted weight and from what I read here was wider than TR (I was on the train to the Met game), will get a much better figure. If Beyer has it right (or TR paired) Frosted ran back to his best.
TGJB

Michael D.

Jerry, they ran exactly the same distance. weight played a big role.

miff

Saw ground about the same,not a weight guy.Frosted never looked to be going by if they ran another quarter.

Frosted lost his right front shoe early on in the race according to KMG
miff