Upstart Vaults From Jim Dandy to Amory's Race, It Says Here

ringato3 · August 03, 2015, 06:03:55 AM

Big

Not sure what he is becoming, but right now, keen ice is a mediocre plodder.

Sucking up for second behind a horse geared down for more than an eighth of a mile, having passed a couple horses who stopped running after about 7/8ths of a mile, is about the definition of plodder.

Good luck with him anywhere against any kind of competition.

Rob

miff · August 03, 2015, 06:14:51 AM

Rob,

Keen Ice not my kind of horse either but he is on the improve,a new top yesterday. Ran about as well as Fraud-sted in the Belmont and made an honest run late over the geared down AP and the tired Upstart.

An improving slug.

Mike

ringato3 · August 03, 2015, 06:26:23 AM

Mike

I hear u. In dirt races I seldom bet horses that can\'t put themselves in the race at all. Dropping back to last and hoping for meltdowns not a great betting strategy.

I guess he could suck up in travers at 1 1/4 miles, for a piece.

Just not with my money...

Rob

T Severini · August 03, 2015, 07:28:58 AM

Agree.....that was a nice effort on that surface.

We\'ll see how it shakes out but by the Haskell, Keen Ice may even be the one to do it. The Grinch to Steal Christmas.

johnnym · August 03, 2015, 08:20:00 AM

That makes it 3 races in a row were a certain horse stopped running.

TGJB · August 03, 2015, 09:01:41 AM

I\'m guessing you didn\'t have Victory Gallop too often.

The key with those horses is not to lose too much ground. KI did in the Belmont, VG did in the Derby and Travers. Not so in the Belmont, Foster and Whitney.

TGJB · August 03, 2015, 09:25:45 AM

Presumably you\'re not talking about Upstart, since his third back was the Florida Derby, at 1 1/8th, and he ran a negative 2, as a March 3yo.

You know this is the Thoro-Graph board, right?

ringato3 · August 03, 2015, 09:41:26 AM

TGJB

No, i didn\'t have victory Gallup. But I love the example. The ride Stevens gave him in the belmont was maybe the best ride in a big spot I have ever seen. I would prefer not to make bets that require that to win. Similarly, I believe coronado\'s quest was maybe not as good as victory Gallup, but he beat him in the Haskell and the travers because he was more tactical.

There are no rules in this game. But I spent my first few years using sheets to futilely bet horses with ground loss loaded figures in dirt races. Horrendous results. Not as bad on turf.

I think there are two problems with betting them. First off, horses with no rating gear are often destined to lose ground. Second, those big flashy \"just miss\" closes draw attention at the windows and u often don\'t get properly compensated for betting them.

Doesn\'t mean the fast TG figure isn\'t correct. But for me, tough to bet those kinds.

We all use the product a bit differently.

Rob

TGJB · August 03, 2015, 09:56:17 AM

Agree with some of that, but between the Race Shapes and knowledge of the jocks and trainers it\'s possible to deal with much of it (Clement gives instructions to save ground, etc.).

My other comment is that I think you said you started with Ragozin, Miff can tell you about ground loss and their figures. Yes, you will go broke betting horses that got big figures due to wide trips on their figures-- and if they raced wide on a day there was a dead rail you are absolutely screwed, the next few times the horse shows up.

TGJB · August 03, 2015, 10:15:43 AM

Ring-- by the way, VG drew the outside or one post from the outside in all three TC races AND the Travers too, I think. Size of field, post and race shape are all considerations in handicapping closer\'s chances.

There\'s probably no-one but me who remembers this, but VG\'s Derby was the one where Chris Lincoln screwed up the draw and they did a do-over. Moved us out about 4 posts, Real Quiet in about 3.