johnnym: I have my own theory regarding the Derby and the Florida Derby as well.  Let\'s see how he likes the inside post and proceed from their.. Good luck

TGJB: That\'s a perfect example of what I\'m talking about.

MonmouthGuy: Staring at the sheets all week, I don\'t think its Kool-Aid.

Upstart is 35% to win if he gets back to a top that he has already paired, the works say he\'s ready and he\'s likely to be 10-1+.

On August 13, 1919 we had Upset.

On August 2, 2015 will we have Upstart?

jerry: Just speaking for myself but watching my key horse get eased in the Derby was pretty disappointing. Not questioning any of his numbers. Just not ready to go all in on him right away...especially not in this spot. Hope I\'m wrong. It\'ll make for a more interesting second half.

jerry: He would be a good bet at 10-1 but I don\'t think you\'ll get half that.

MonmouthGuy: Opened at 15-1 2nd choice.

Silver Charm: There was $750,000 to win on AP and $230,000 to Show almost out of the blocks. This isn\'t $2.00 Joe Public with Souvenir tickets. Who said dumb money left the game...

Tavasco: And if the big bet gets cancelled?

johnnym: Results speak for themselves. Ill keep to my theory.
Good luck you..

jerry: Won eased up. AP in a class all by himself.

MonmouthGuy: Ultra impressive.

Keen Ice will give Texas Red-Frosted all they can handle in Travers if AP chooses elsewhere.

Upstart should target BC dirt mile and Cigar Mile. Will not win at 9F and beyond against graded stakes horses this year. Maybe next year? Lawyer Ron comes to mind as a horse that was able to run his top figures as a 4YO at 9F+ after moving to TAP barn while appearing distance limited as a 3YO.

TGJB: You\'re a riot.

MonmouthGuy: Maybe Lawyer Ron didn\'t run three huge consecutive negative numbers as a 4YO at 9 and 10F after backing up and running Xs at his two 10F tries as a 3YO, but that is my recollection.

As for Upstart, the next time I lose money on him at 9F or more will be when someone else cashes in the parimutal pool on my dime.

ringato3: Monmouth Guy,

I don\'t mean to be a jerk, but it amazes me sometimes what people see when they watch a race.

You saw Upstart beat by the distance today?  BC Mile and Cigar Mile?

The horse was done by 7 furlongs today, showing almost no run.  Sat in the pocket comfortably off the pace, which wasn\'t vicious, made a mini-run into the turn for about 10 steps, then got passed by a VERY MEDIOCRE PLODDER - keen ice.  

The horse that ran today just wasn\'t good.  Not the same horse he was late last year into early this year.

Maybe he needed the race.  But it wasn\'t the distance.

Rob

big18741: Keen Ice went into yesterdays race with a very light work schedule.
Gaps between works and his last one came two weeks out.

Horse is becoming more than a mediocre plodder.