The Ground Pounder

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

RION HART - \"Got just one look at the likely Derby pacesetter who has been stabled at Keeneland and vanned in only to work. Has the compact stride of a sprinter and predictably worked a quick and measured half mile in his lone visit here last weekend. Gives the appearance of a horse who might be better suited to a one turn mile but has enough quality to pull a War Emblem if allowed to relax long enough on the lead.\" - Mike Welsh

I\'m not sure Mike looks close at finishing fractions. He may win but Rion Hart is nowhere near a War Emblem.



Post Edited (04-29-04 14:06)

[pgsheets]

Everyone keeps talking about Lion Heart and some of the other speed in terms of their similiarity to War Emblem.

Do you remember all the pre-race posting that year about how much speed was in the race ?

Yeah, me either.

Since Spend A Buck,  I believe their have been 3 wire jobs : Winning Colors, Go For Gin, and War Emblem.
All got loose early and easily.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

St. Averil and Master David have run on some quick pace fractions I overlooked in the Santa Catalina and Hollywood Futurity. The form has a HUGE variant on Santa Catalina Day when the Strip looked glib. I don\'t know whats up with that.

Do you remember all the pre-race posting that year about how much speed was in the race ?

Yeah I do remember. I can\'t remember who supposedly had speed. I think Proud Citizen wired his Lexington Field and Megadeath had run right near the front in California and the Wood. Thats all I can really remember. I think the 1\'s on the Form were what the writers saw.



Post Edited (04-29-04 15:14)

[TGJB]

I\'ll tellya, I don\'t see all this speed that everyone is talking about. There are only 5 horses with any semblance of speed, which means no one will have to send-- and they seldom do in the Derby anyway, since they are all worried about the distance. I had an exchange with Derby 1592 about this a couple of years ago, and there is almost always a realistic pace, and speed is good in the Derby unless things get crazy, which doesn\'t figure to happen here-- front runners have won way out of proportion to the size of the fields.

I would also point out that Spend A Buck\'s \"uncontested lead\" was 45 and change.

I see a lot of horses wanting to sit just off or a few lengths off Lion Heart. QGR will be asked some to get position, but they run 3/8ths to a turn (about 35 seconds), so with not much speed in here they won\'t have to kill even him to get position. The ones in trouble are the deep closers-- with so many of them, the ones on the outside are going to be in a mess, because I don\'t think this field is going to string out much. I don\'t know what those guys were thinking in passing up inside posts, but it was a mistake.

[Michael D.]

a lot of it depends on the track condition. when they went :44 or :45 a few years ago, the CD surface was about as fast as it has ever been (two or three track records that day). if the track is playing heavy, i bet they let LH lope along. if the track is real quick, or maybe wet fast, i bet two or three horses will try to take advantage of it, and be within a length or two of the lead, making LH run a bit harder. the wildcard pace horse here is PV. pletcher has given no indication that he wants the lead, but how much traffic do you want your one eyed horse to encounter??

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jerry I know you\'ve got feel for pace. Theres no doubt and I\'m with you on the pace factor. I\'m just trying to look as thoroughly as possible regarding pace to get a feel for Rion Harts chances.

St. Averil has the hooves problem and he was rumored to look uncomfortable on his works at Churchill, but the one time he faced Rion Hart was right off his maiden and he ran darn close and darn game to him before he folded. I don\'t think St. Averil is gonna be in a physical position to influence the pace. Additionally, I don\'t trust the pace from the Norfolk. I don\'t think those fractions were run a slowish track. No Way.

So I hear you\'re point about inside. The only problem with inside is if for whatever reason you don\'t acquire position by the first turn. Its the worst place to be. Scores of derby\'s have been lost there. I think Smith telling Biancone he wanted the 3 hole tips his hand, but we all know Rion is gonna go.

Your point about Spend a Buck is noted. I still believe unless they run a 47:4 or 48 half on a legit 2:02 track that it takes a horse with 10 mark ability to win this thing on the front end. I Don\'t think Go For Gin or War Emblem or Winning Colors were the best Derby Winners ever, but I don\'t think you can argue against the fact that they were capable 10 mark horses. I\'m not sure Rion Hart is in that mold. He may be, but he\'s not gonna skip away. Theres at least one horse that is gonna be on him like a shadow.

[MO]

As I have posted earlier, Lion Heart\'s pace figures are far and above faster than the others. This is Spend A Buck waiting to happen.

Lion Heart has no one to run with him because anyone who does, is gonna cook themselves, and nobody wants to go into the race knowing they are gonna get cooked. It\'s the Derby - they want a chance to win and everyone knows one thing: \"We don\'t know if we can get a mile and a quarter, because we have never run a mile and a quarter. Therefore we will take our horse(s) back, save something for the end and hope that Lion Heart is a sprinter and collapses after a mile.\" (I just saw Jerry\'s post, sorry for the redundancy)

But using the TG figs, he\'s lightly raced this year, both races are an improvement over his 2 year old year and he enters the race as the co-2nd fastest horse. Only Smarty Jones has run faster and I think most on this board have been in agreement that he is an 0-2-X and likely off the board. So we have to beat The Cliff\'s Edge, and he is also a strong bounce candidate. He has always bounced off of tops.

Lion Heart\'s developement is gradual and a forward move or pair up - given an uncontested lead -  is quite likely.

Unless Mike burns him up, he\'ll have to fall down to lose here.

This is a Triple Crown waiting to happen, because after this race, they go to speed favoring Pimlico with STILL no one else to run with him and he will STILL be lightly raced.



Post Edited (04-29-04 20:03)

[Michael D.]

tapit for instance..... with an inside post.... only four career starts, over 100k screaming fans, stuck in behind twelve horses, all kinds of mud flying in his face, and stretching out to 10f for the first time..... too much to handle. take out the stuck in behind other horses, and a lot of the mud hitting the other horses instead of him, and i think the cleaner trip compensates for the ground loss. i know many sheet handicappers don\'t think that way, but i would imagine that is what was going through dickinson\'s mind..... now a horse like pro prado, with seven career starts, two of them in the mud..... i would imagine he would have handled an inside post better.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Rion got a major break when Sinister G. had to opt out. A healthy Sinister would have cooked him. I\'m not saying Rion can\'t get a part or perhaps even win depending on circumstances.

I\'ve seen better triple crown horses inside cans of Alpo. I\'m not sure they still make horsemeat dogfood. I used to feed my Golden Retriever Alpo Horesemeat and he LOVED IT...lol  Seriously, that was before I handicapped horses and I wouldn\'t feed my dog horsemeat now, who knows he might have gotten a can of Exceller or Ferdinand. (Not Ferdinand, thats too recent, but maybe a lucky Golden will get a can of Rion Hart in the near future. )

Rion is a ground pounder if he\'s fortunate enough to back door into the Derby this year all its gonna take is a little speed to cave him in later. He can\'t let another horse go.

[sabowen]

What about Smarty on first time lasix? and Wimbledon no bute?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Elaborate on the \"Wimbledon, no Bute\" statement. I can see he didn\'t race with Bute in the La. Derby. Is he off Bute and when did he go off it? As far as Smarty goes I read the lasix as very positive. Who knows he may have had a little congestion before it. If he did and the lasix clears it up what does that mean? He\'s worked well on it.



Post Edited (04-29-04 22:36)

[jbelfior]

Has anyone considered how poor a gate rider Mike Smith is?? Remember when Seattle Slew broke tardy from the 3 hole??? Lucky for Frog Face that SS was a champ. I\'ve seen too many tardy breaks from Mr. Smith to trust him down inside.

I agree with the pace analysis. I still say :46 3/5 is the over/under for the half and that\'s not too demanding considering the run to the turn. Then they\'ll hit the six in 1:11 1/5 and the closers are now in trouble. Here we will have only a length or 2 separating LH, RTF, PV, SJ, with QGR and LH beginning their retreat. They\'ll turn for home that way.....and down the stretch they come.

Feel free to fill in the rest.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[sabowen]

Read the Smarty same as you.  Was only going by the DRF form disclosures as to Wimbledon\'s use of bute in every race except the LA Derby and not in the Kentucky Derby.  To me that means the horse is \"ouchy\".  Bute is apparently allowed in Kentucky, but of several horses accomstomed to running on the drug, none are running on it in the Derby.  Are DRF\'s program disclosures incorrect?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I don\'t think theres a race day indication in the form regarding Bute usage. If there is you learn something new every day.

In Kentucky anything goes so I just don\'t think they require Bute usage to be indicated. I think they even allow it to be administered on race day. I\'m not sure about that.

If I knew for a fact Wimbledon was off Bute in the La. Derby and off Bute this time for the Derby, I\'d be prone to increase my bets with him substantially. I don\'t have any indication of that.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jbelfior

I think they\'ll run a 47 or slower unless the track is super juiced.

Assume Limehouse and Sword kick it up a bit and Rion Hart is off a half step slow, then maybe a rush up gets the half under 47, otherwise I really don\'t see them going much faster than that.

The key will be the track. On recent Derby\'s its been seriously juiced and though juiced its tended to be less than ideal for front runners, but the last two years front runners certainly faired well. If the track is a 2:03 plus track, even a 2:02 track I would factor the closers to do well. We have to wait and see. If its a 2:01 track horses like Rion and Smarty have a big chance factoring projected pace and could win on a 46 and change. That said each fifth under 47 with Rion on the lead seriously cuts this horses chances down. He\'s just not a real big heart horse.



Post Edited (04-30-04 01:05)