Chungking Speed Figures

[DaveDuggan]

Was goofing around on the web researching horse racing in different countries and came over this little gem, Hong Kong Speed Figures! An example: http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/formguide.asp?frmRaceDate=21/06/2015&FrmRaceNum=10

I was kinda baffled and impressed that they actually looked surprisingly tight, making me think that they might use ground which would be a surprise in itself, so I read their piece \"Understanding Speed Figures\" where they to their credit are very open about what they do and have done:

http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/what_SpeedFigures.asp

Some really, let me say interesting ideas in there:

1. They actually DO use ground, however they might have gotten their formulas slightly wrong (depending on the width of the paths they\'re presuming maybe, shouldn\'t be totally wrong anyway)?:

\"...Since a horse positioned three horses off the rails on two bends travels about 3.5L (equal to about 0.5sec) further than a horse on the rail...\"

2. I specially like the part about Incidents during the race:

\"...The next item is more contentious - post-race analysis of race videos to assess incidents that affected the performance of horses. It is contentious because it involves uses someone's opinion of how much distance a horse lost by being checked or blocked, or by running wide on the turns, or for various other reasons. It is difficult to be precise in making such judgments. For example, how can you be really sure how strongly a horse would have finished if it had not been trapped behind a wall of other runners? Could it have finished two lengths closer to the winner, or four lengths, or five? We use experienced racing analysts to make these judgments and try to be conservative in making adjustments - to under-compensate rather than the opposite...\"

Maybe an idea for TG, Jerry, to start and project lengths on and off the raw time after what a horse looked to lose because of \"checking\"?

3. The stuff about how they created the par times, speed charts, track variants etc is also quite good.. It\'s kinda like Len (but at least they\'re not using wind readings from the nearest airport!). I bet the guys behind these speed figures are world class engineers! (and probably virgins).  

Any thoughts on this, guys? Miff, what is your opinion, have you seen anything like it? I haven\'t tested them or followed them closely so I don\'t know how good they actually work, but I do want to give them credit for trying their best and the part about incidents is, well, CREATIVE I\'d give them that!

This little message from the officials at the bottom of the form might be telling though;

\"SpeedPOWER race form is produced by a private company and is not official Jockey Club information. Every effort is made to ensure the information is as accurate as possible, but the club assumes no responsibility for it.\"

I just thought it was an interesting find and wanted to share it with you.

[miff]

\"Any thoughts on this, guys? Miff, what is your opinion, have you seen anything like it? I haven\'t tested them or followed them closely so I don\'t know how good they actually work, but I do want to give them credit for trying their best and the part about incidents is, well, CREATIVE I\'d give them that!\"


Dave,

Sounds fairly comprehensive. Know that the syndicates betting \"zillions\" in the HK pools use some form of speed/performance figs in their betting model.Like here, would assume anyone using reliable data has an edge over those who do not.Understand the HK pools have far less informed gamblers than US,UK,Australia, but syndicates very strong influence there.

Mike