Zito Recent Belmont History

[richiebee]

1990 Thirty Six Red       1
1992 Agincourt            7²⁶
1994 Go For Gin           2²
1995 Star Standard        2²
1996 Louis Quatorze       4¹¹
1999 Stephen G. Even      5⁶
2001 AP Valentine         2¹²
2004 Birdstone            1
2005 Andromedas Hero      2⁷
2005 Indy Storm           4¹⁶
2007 CP West              5¹⁵
2008 Duh Tara             1
2008 Anak Nakal           3⁸
2009 Brave Victory        7¹⁷
2010 Fly Down             2³

(Year, horse, finish, beaten lengths).

Is there anyone I missed?

Since 1990, 15 starters 3 wins, 5 seconds, 1 third.

His entrant this year, Frammento, is 50/1. He is NW2 lifetime. Based on Zito\'s record in the Belmont could this seemingly overmatched runner sneak into the mutuels somewhere?

[Al Caught Up]

I think he had two runners in 2009--Miner\'s Escape along wiht Brave Victory? Neither did much damage.

[mjellish]

Colt is working well and needs a pace to run at but hasn\'t gotten that in his last few races.  Was on a dead rail in Bluegrass as well.  Zito has been saying since March this was his Belmont horse when he started to come around in Florida.  Tough to see him winning, but he\'s at least moderately interesting IMO.

[miff]

Clocker Bruno has liked Frammento all winter observing him at PMM. Profiles the perfect one run suck up slug that could fill out underneath.

[big18741]

Same idea as Keen Ice.

Similar sheet,both slow but steady clunk around types.
Both depend on an honest to solid pace here or the top contenders wanting no parts of 12 furlongs.

Keen Ice had less wide than Frammento in the Derby but more trouble.
No running lanes from the top of the stretch to inside the 1/8th pole where he just pushed Frammento out of the way to get clear.

Keen Ice might like the distance better if just looking at the pedigree.

[PapaChach]

Didn\'t Thirty Six Red run 2nd to Go and Go? Either way, 11 of Zito\'s 15 Belmont entrants have landed somewhere in the super.  

Frammento\'s Blue Grass on a dead rail behind a slow pace wasn\'t all that bad, though admittedly his Derby wasn\'t anything to write home about.

A quick check of the archives shows that over the last five years, supers have been filled out with lots of horses in the 2-3 range; he\'s already run a 3, and he\'ll have had rest coming into this one, so certainly could pair up or move forward a little.

Given the trainer\'s record, the fact that he\'s run a figure that is often good enough to get a piece in this race, and that he\'ll be a huge price, definitely one to consider underneath.

[johnnym]

Richeeb, I\'ve been on Frammento since the FOY played him in the derby for show and 4th. Now I say to myself is it time to let go? Then u post this..
I just don\'t see a closer doing well in this race except Taleofthe Verve.
Frosted will be more forward placed,much like Jazil..
Good Luck

[miff]

Frammento


Midshipman, out of Ginger Bay, by Golden Missile. His dam Ginger Bay was a minor stakes winner sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs and has produced a half-sister to Frammento (by Hard Spun) that twice won sprinting. More distantly, his fourth dam is 12-furlong Coaching Club American Oaks third-place finisher Inca Queen, but damline performers closer up in his pedigree don't appear to be stamina-blessed.

[richiebee]

PapaChach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Didn\'t Thirty Six Red run 2nd to Go and Go? Either
> way, 11 of Zito\'s 15 Belmont entrants have landed
> somewhere in the super.  

Papa you are correct.

Still, he\'s made the exacta with around half of his Belmont Stake starters.

This from a trainer who has hovered around 12% winning percentage over his career.

[jerry]

Any chance you have the odds for each of those?

[mjellish]

I was told by someone I trust 100% that Frammento was like a whole new horse in the AM after the FOY.  Was like a light bulb went on for him.  Can make the argument that he hasn\'t had a chance to show his best since then as he hasn\'t had a set up.  But in general, I don\'t like to keep making excuses for horses.  Sooner or later he is probably going to run a good one.  Not sure the Belmont would the spot.  But it would be tough to leave him off all your tickets at his likely odds.  And I think the pace of this Belmont is going to be fast as Pletcher tends to send them.

[analizethis]

Here you go:

Year, Horse, odds, finish, ordinal rank in odds, field size, outran his rank (Y/N):

1990 Thirty Six Red, 3.7, 2, 2, 9, N/A
1992 Agincourt, 24.3, 7, 8, 11, Y
1994 Go for Gin, 1.5, 2, 2, 6, N/A
1995 Star Standard, 6.3, 2, 4, 11, Y
1996 Louis Quatorze, 6.1, 4, 4, 14, N/A
1999 Stephen Got Even, 9.3, 5, 4, 12, N
2001 AP Valentine, 5.9, 2, 3, 9, Y
2004 Birdstone, 36, 1, 7, 9 Y
2005 Andromedas Hero, 11.9, 2,4,11 Y
2005 Indy Storm, 17.1, 4, 9, 11, Y
2007 CP West, 12.4, 5, 6, 7, Y
2008 Da\"Tara, 38.5, 1, 9, 9, Y
2008 Anak Nakal, 34.3, 3, 8, 9, Y
2009 Brave Victory, 27.5, 7, 10, 10, Y
2009 Miner\'s Escape, 22, 10, 7, 10, N
2010 Fly Down, 5.2, 2, 3, 12, Y
2010 Ice Box, 1.9 (fav), 9, 1, 12, N

So, in summary, since 1990 he has run 17 (in 13 different events), their average placing is 4th, their average odds are 15.5 - 1, their average ordinal ranking is 5th and they have outrun the ordinal ranking 11 times, even with it 3 times and finished worse than it 3 times. Also, with no runners since 2010 he has no doubt decided that he only needs to run when he has a shot.

Also 2 winners, 8 times in the exacta, 9 times in the trifecta and 11 times in the top 4 (superfecta when applicable).

[flushedstraight]

from the TG archives..

Belmont #, prior race #, prev top

1992 Agincourt, 13-3, 13-1, 10-3
1994 Go for Gin, 5-2, 4, 4
1995 Star Standard, 6, 6, 6
1996 Louis Quatorze, 6-2, 2-3, 2-3
1999 Stephen Got Even, 4-2, 3-2, 3-2
2001 AP Valentine, 2, 4, 4
2004 Birdstone, neg 1-1, 5-2, 2-1
2005 Andromedas Hero, 2, 5-3, 5
2005 Indy Storm, 5, 5, 5
2007 CP West, 5-2, 0, 0
2008 Da\"Tara, 1-3, 3-2, 3-2
2008 Anak Nakal, 4-2, 4, 2-3
2009 Brave Victory, 4-2, 3-1, 2-1
2009 Miner\'s Escape, 20-2, 2-2, 2-2
2010 Fly Down, 3, 0, 0
2010 Ice Box, 7-1, 2-2, 1-2


possibly of note: 3 new tops and 1 paired out of all his 4 starters between 2001-2005

since then just the what have you/unmentionable in 2008 out of 7 starts