Materiality's Derby

[boston]

It is possible that this has been spoken about.  I have seem thousands of races and I have never seem anything like this one.  On the turn he seems completely empty then when he gets in the clear he finds more energy.  However, before the turn with no dirt in his face, he also seems at best barely keeping up with the horses around him.  Has anyone seen anything like this?  I do not even understand why the jock would let him run at this point.

[Dick Powell]

I wrote about this in my Handicapping Insights column on BRIS two weeks ago. He was completely out of the bridle at the top of the stretch but then kicked in and ran the fastest last quarter mile. It\'s not like he had any momentum going into the stretch. The riders say they hit a wall of noise at that part of the track and maybe it scared him. He had no traffic and it didn\'t look like it was kickback. I know if you do not expend energy in the first mile you might have some left in the last quarter mile but I thought it was impressive what he did. I love him being by Afleet Alex for the Belmont. Pletcher won the Belmont with Rags to Riches, a daughter of Belmont winner A.p. Indy and with Palace Malice, a son of Curlin who Rags to Riches beat by a nose. Now he has a son of a Belmont winner that is a proven source of stamina.

[Tavasco]

Oh and Phone Trick

On those two simple words - I\'ll toss him.

IMO - The most meaningful sire.

[jbelfior]

Frosted blows by him on the turn widest of all with Materiality on the inside with no traffic in front of him.
Not sure what all of the Materiality lovers were watching.

Good luck with him especially considering that Stanford got the best of him in his last work.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[FrankD.]

Joe,

I just re watched that work. I\'m not nor have ever been in the Materiality camp; lofty numbers aside this one is still being educated and finding out what he is supposed to do on the track.

He had every opportunity to go by Stanford in the lane and only evened up with him in the gallop out?

A 4/1 second choice probably doesn\'t get it here for risk vs reward although he would have to be included on any horizontals on number power alone.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[miff]

Fwiw, Materiality has not \"won\" too many workouts over the winter either but won all his races(except the derby) Mat reportedly always works well but never is overly impressive relative to his good looks.Interesting rider question Johnny V undefeated on him, owners not happy he bailed off in derby,who rides?

Both Mayeriality and Frosted still being a little tweaked by their trainers in the am, not following an exact routine as they normally do with most of their horses,don\'t like that.Frosted still being more easily handled.

Madefromlucky working better now than ever according to those who watched him all winter.

Carpe Diem a bit of a mystery. No rider confirmed, wonder if he will run.


Meanwhile Baffy had AP weighed at CD and the horse supposedly weighed the same as his did before the Arkansas Derby, whatever that means.Also galloping strong after 4 days of just walking after the Preakness.AP may have a breeze before leaving CD which is a little surprising, thought he would just gallop up the race.

Just reported that Martin Garcia flying in with Baffert to work American Pharoah on Tuesday,hard to believe!

[toppled]

It would have been a bad sign if AP was going to gallop up to the race, it wouldn\'t have fit his normal training program. He works out regularly between races. The reason he galloped up to the Preakness is that the 2 weeks between races didn\'t fit into his normal training program, 3 weeks are within the schedule of his past works & easier to predict.  If he works tomorrow, I\'d expect one more work next Sunday or Monday, otherwise he\'ll probably work next Saturday or Sunday. I didn\'t expect 2 works, but it\'s within his historic work pattern.  

Here\'s a historic look at AP\'s training program with his race schedule
(fraction is in 5ths of a second, not hundredths)

2yo campaign:

Debut 8/9/14: 5f workout in 59.4 on 8/3/14, 6 days before the race-it was his 11th work prior to his debut.

2nd race 9/3/14: Works out 9 days after 1st race, 4f in 48 & 8/27/17 5f in 59, 7 days before next race.

3rd race 9/27/14: Works out 12 days after last race 9/15/14 4f in 47.4, works 6 days before 3rd race on 9/21/14 5f in 59.3.  After the race he is back working out 11 days later on 10/8/14 4f in 47.3, he had 3 more works leading up to his scheduled Breeder\'s Cup race, his last on 10/26/14, 6 days before the race.

3yo campaign:

Rebel 3/14/15: 6 workouts prior to 3yo debut, final work 3/6/15, 8 days before the race

Ark Derby 4/11/15: Works out 15 days after Rebel 3/29/15 5f in 58.3, then 6 days before the Ark Derby 6f in 111.3.

Derby 5/2/15: Works out on 4/26/15 5f in 58.2, 15 days after the Ark Derby & 6 days before the Kentucky Derby.

Preakness 5/16/15: No way to fit in a workout about 2 weeks after his last race & about 1 week before this race.

[miff]

Top,

Yeah but,racing 4 times in 8 weeks in another story.Either AP is pulling a bit in the am or acting dull.Baffert way too smart and experienced with TC possibles to work this horse twice before Belmont considering the grueling 3 yr old campaign AP had so far.

Mike

[toppled]

I\'d be curious to see what Baffert did with Point Given between the Preakness & Belmont.  Even though he lost the Derby, PG had a similar 3YO campaign leading up to the Belmont as AP has had.  I couldn\'t find what PG did between races, maybe someone here still has the program or Form and could tell us.

[KeithB]

Point Given
10 days after Preakness 5F 59.6 @ CDX
5 days before Belmont 5F 59.6 @ CDX

Silver Charm
11 days after Preakness 6F 1:14.8 @ CDX
4 days before Belmont 5F 1:01 @ CDX

Real Quiet
12 days after Preakness 5F 59.8 @ CDX
4 days before Belmont 5F 1:01 @ CDX

War Emblem
11 days after Preakness 5F 1:00.6 @ CDX
4 days before Belmont 5F 1:01 @ CDX

[rhagood]

Would only be more concerned if AP doesn\'t follow that work pattern, trainers are a creature of habit.

[richiebee]

rhagood Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Would only be more concerned if AP doesn\'t follow
> that work pattern, trainers are a creature of
> habit.


...but each horse is an individual, so I would tend to totally ignore AP\'s
preparation vis a vis any other Baffert Bel Stakes runner.

[toppled]

Thanks.  I don\'t see how they\'re going to get a Belmont work in if they ship on Tuesday.  So I\'m guessing the 2nd work will be at CD this year. He\'ll have enough time to gallop at Belmont, just like he did shipping from CD to Pimlico.

[miff]

Also, AP does not carry an extra ounce of condition.

[rhagood]

Looks ok as of this morning:

http://photos.bloodhorse.com/TripleCrown/2015-Triple-Crown/Belmont-Stakes-147/i-RZHvzmx/A