Preakness figs

[TGJB]

Figures for the weekend in Baltimore are in ROTW.

[Gerard]

And the plot thickens....

Thinking the Belmont field may grow a little larger now.

[Benton]

Very, very interesting!  Still can\'t get over that jumpup by Verve.
Is it Belmont Day, yet.

Thanks for posting, TGJB.

[miff]

Hear Rags had AP like TG 3 also backing up like 2.75 from his derby.Three fig makers have AP backing up about 2.50+ points, 2 other fig makers have AP close to pairing the derby.

[TGJB]

If that\'s really true about Jakefigs it\'s amazing. They have a natural fit pairing the winner and DR to their last-- assuming they got the ground right this time.

Didn\'t want to get into the weeds on this but they were framed into what they did for the Derby by having a couple of horses too wide (and we went back and checked). Because of that, going the other way would have forced them to give several new tops out to also-rans, so they went the way they did, which if their ground had been right would have been the correct thing to do.

If you\'re right about the way Jake/Len did the Preakness I can only guess they tied it to other races, which under the circumstances would be truly unbelievable. But since they won\'t post the whole day and the lemmings won\'t ask (and wouldn\'t get an answer if they did) we\'ll never know.

[Tavasco]

Are we measuring the horses effort/performance or the final time of a race? Are they the same or is there a difference?

[miff]

I heard the fig was Rags 6.5

[beazley]

Correct me if I\'m wrong but I think 4 horses ran a top in the Derby and 6 paired. Isn\'t that very unexpected for a Derby. 10 of 18 paired or ran tops.

But in the Preakness only 1 horse ran a top and 1 paired out of 8.  Verve is getting s top no matter what you do with race but why not Divining Rod?  Seems like he ran a big one.  

So now AP pattern sets up for the obvious bounce but if he had run 6 lengths faster, we should be less concerned?

[SoCalMan2]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Figures for the weekend in Baltimore are in ROTW.


What do we make of the top three horses bearing out?  Is it possible if you ran on a track like that in circumstances like that you either end up slowing down or bearing out if you ran fast?  Normally, I would view the \"bo\" as a real sign of trouble coming.  However, maybe the \"bo\" not as meaningful if it happened under extreme conditions and happened to all horses who ran fast enough to beat a 6?

[TGJB]

First of all, the Derby had 10 more horses, and the Preakness was run in a monsoon, which makes it more likely some horses will just spit it out (especially on 2 weeks rest). You won\'t find too many figure makers (or handicappers) who think lots of horses will run better than ever under those circumstances.

Second, I think we discussed this after the Derby. The only other way of doing it would have had NO horses running new tops, based on the more than one point definition used in the studies. So either way it would have come up a little out of the norm, better or worse.

From a figure making point of view, horses pairing tops is a good thing. If you can show me a way to pair more of them in the Preakness I would love to see it.

[Tavasco]

None bore in where it is presumably wetter and deeper.

[TGJB]

It\'s now posted on their site, yes, 6 1/2. I have their sheets for that race (and day), it\'s straight up figure making malpractice. Amazing.

[JimP]

I watched the replay multiple times and I just don\'t see anything that justified the \"bore out\" designation.

[toppled]

The competition got so bored watching his tail, they all checked out.

[Fairmount1]

TGJB wrote:  But since they won\'t post the whole day and the lemmings won\'t ask (and wouldn\'t get an answer if they did) we\'ll never know.

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