Preakness - Swinging For The Fences Strategy

[sekrah]

Everybody and their mother is convinced this is a repeat trifecta box from the Derby, so I\'m obviously going to take one to beat them and really throw the verticals in a loop.

Danzig Moon

Thought he ran big in the Derby, horrible trip early. I\'m going to key around him, maybe a little win bet too, and hope he can hit the board.  Exacta\'s and Tri\'s should be well inflated because of how sure everybody is that nobody else can hit the board.

Also lightly using Mr. Z (who also had a wretched Derby trip), Bodhi, and Divining Rod to fill out the bottom of the verticals.

I do love Firing Line, so I\'ll probably use him a little stronger in combos with DM and see what happens.  

Good luck.

[T Severini]

Good Luck sekrah,

I\'ve spent a number of hours evaluating the Preakness and consequently Derby trips and you are correct. Danzig Moon wanted to be closer early and was forced back at least 3 lengths to my eye. He is deserving of play to make this one pay.

I\'m uncertain of many things right now, but I\'m certain of a few too and these I will share:

AP ran his A Race in the Derby, despite what his connections or other trainers think. There was a lot of ducking this race to ambush in the Belmont Stakes and that is unfortunate because some of the duckers were probably better suited to this distance. A distance that isn\'t novel. So many other variables come into play at 12 furlongs.

My Key certainty is that any horse that ran near the rail in the Derby Race was not going to have anything left. I\'ve watched that film at least 25 times and I am certain. One horse ran down in there and finished like he belonged. That same horse was undefeated coming in, had handled Firing Line, in grudge matches and had a bout with the horses curse before the Derby and is now back again. I like Dortmund, he is my Key.

I also agree with you on Mr. Z. He\'s been closer before and will be on my tickets, not to win, but not sure if I may not even put him in second now.

AP is a good horse, but he certainly was monumentally fortunate in the Derby and is now Odds on.

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Everybody and their mother is convinced this is a
> repeat trifecta box from the Derby, so I\'m
> obviously going to take one to beat them and
> really throw the verticals in a loop.
>
> Danzig Moon
>
> Thought he ran big in the Derby, horrible trip
> early. I\'m going to key around him, maybe a little
> win bet too, and hope he can hit the board.
> Exacta\'s and Tri\'s should be well inflated because
> of how sure everybody is that nobody else can hit
> the board.
>
> Also lightly using Mr. Z (who also had a wretched
> Derby trip), Bodhi, and Divining Rod to fill out
> the bottom of the horizontals.
>
> I do love Firing Line, so I\'ll probably use him a
> little stronger in combos with DM and see what
> happens.  
>
> Good luck.

[Michael D.]

sek, Danzig Moon is my key as well. ridden out of the gate and bounced around early in the Derby. didn\'t have the best 10f pedigree to begin with, so it wasn\'t a big surprise when he flattened out. will sit back today, gets a trip a 1/16 shorter, and should get pace to run at. a bit slow going in, but I think there\'s still some value in the TG Blue Grass fig vs the 90 Beyer.

needs a hot pace, obviously, but the price is right.

[TGJB]

I just bet Alan a cup of coffee even up there will be an inquiry after the Preakness.

[Michael D.]

an inquiry would be good for me. I think.

[TGJB]

I agree with that. I\'m probably going to end up using DM with Firing Line, protecting heavy with AP.

Seldom have I had less of an opinion about a TC race. By which I mean tote board will have it close to right.

Would pay a lot to hear Baffert instructions to Garcia. The ones last night.

[Lost Cause]

as my name suggests...im going back to Dortmund again.  still bothers me that he might not have been 100% for the derby after baffert revealed something about slight colic the week before.  seen the horse just dig in and run away from firing line before and he did not have that fight in his last.. good luck everyone

[aceriley]

I\'m on Dortmund also.  Convinced the rail was dead in the Derby.

[P-Dub]

AP and Dortmund send, maybe a few others.

Firing Line stalks and wins.

Danzig Moon key underneath

[P-Dub]

Very impressive.

That\'s why it was unplayable, unless you played the long shots underneath.

[Rick B.]

TGJB Wrote:
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> I just bet Alan a cup of coffee even up there will
> be an inquiry after the Preakness.

Wasn\'t it Paul Newman in the movieThe T-Graph Of Money that said:

\"A cup of coffee WON from the boss is twice as sweet as a cup of coffee earned.\"

[kencbs]

I tried playing the longshots underneath.  Then the slowest horse in Triple Crown history comes in and beats me out of a super.  Like the song title says - Oh Well.

Ken