Upon Further Review

[TGJB]

We\'re pretty conscientious about reviewing figures if there\'s any doubt about accuracy, at any given time I have a list of about 50 races over the last few months that I go back and look at starting about a month after they ran. Recently that review made a very big difference-- I originally had Shook Up\'s maiden win much slower, after a few came back a couple of times (including her) I brought it to a 3, making her FG Oaks a return to her top, and setting her up for the play in the Oaks. Ragozin (whoever does FG) did it the way I originally did and didn\'t go back and review, so they had her off a 3 point new top into the Oaks.

Anyway, among the races I\'m watching is the Tampa Bay Derby, which could be a couple of points faster. It doesn\'t make much difference for the Preakness, and by the time we put sheets out for the Belmont I should have enough to make a final decision. It definitely will matter in handicapping that race.

[Agastache]

Would that make Carpe Diem a 0-2-x?

Interesting price to round back into form off a 5 week break into the Belmont?

[ruthlessman]

Which means, if what your saying proves true, Carpe bounced in the Bluegrass and probably looks like an o 2 x. Danzig\'s line then would smooth out some.

[TGJB]

If AP wins the Preakness he\'s gonna have his hands full in the Belmont regardless, if that Tampa race is faster CD would be yet another danger. Let\'em all kill each other, Upstart\'s gonna win the second half of the year.

If FL beats AP in the Preakness, neither will show for the Belmont, and maxing at 90k will be the least of NYRA\'s worries.

[mjellish]

Moon and Divining Rod were in the Tampa Derby, no?  

If it was faster, are we talking two points or so on your data?

[TGJB]

Yes.

[big18741]

Both of those horses came out of the TBD with possible excuses.

Danzig Moon didn\'t like the track(seems like the one you hear most when a horse doesn\'t fire)came back with cuts on his legs and got sick a few days after the race.

Divining Rod had foot issues,was training in a bar shoe and may have run with one that day.He also sat up on a pretty quick early pace for Tampa Bay that day before backing up.

Seems like one of these horses can work out a pretty good trip sucking around on the fence in 4th or 5th behind the two fast ones and Dortmund.Inside isn\'t always the place to be at Pimlico(2013 Preakness)but if it\'s fair the Scrappy T trip without the bolting gets a nice piece of this if one of those two can fire a 0 on Saturday.

Five weeks,positive rider switch and a longer price will probably have me on Divining Rod of the two.

[NormandyInvasion]

Curious about your high opinion of Upstart.  Not that he\'s a bad horse, but he\'s going to be the top 3yo of the second half of the year?  I just don\'t see it.  Not only do I think AP, Dortmund, Texas Red, Firing Line, Frosted, Kentuckian, and several others may be better horses, it\'s rare that a horse finish so poorly in the KY Derby and rebound to be the best in the crop over the second half of the year.  Not sure it\'s ever happened.  The Derby has a way with weeding out horses.  The only ones I can think of to run poorly (and not as poorly as Upstart ran) and came back to be top horses were those who cut back to sprinting.

[Holybull1]

NormandyInvasion Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 it\'s rare that a horse finish so poorly in the KY Derby and
> rebound to be the best in the crop over the second
> half of the year.  Not sure it\'s ever happened.

Holy Bull.

[magicnight]

Hansel.

[NormandyInvasion]

Holybull1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NormandyInvasion Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>  it\'s rare that a horse finish so poorly in the KY
> Derby and
> > rebound to be the best in the crop over the
> second
> > half of the year.  Not sure it\'s ever happened.
>
>
> Holy Bull.

Good catch.  I guess he\'d qualify.  I remember Croll being certain that someone tampered with him, and given what an anomaly that Derby was, perhaps Croll was right.

I\'ve been proven wrong in that it has happened, but I\'m not seeing too many similarities between the Bull and Upstart.

[magicnight]

I\'ve been reminded about Snow Chief - 11th in the Derby and 3YO champion.

[TGJB]

My opinion of Upstart going forward is based on a) my opinion of Upstart before, which was as strongly as I have ever felt about a young horse, Rachel included (which in turn is why I recommended Winstar buy into him), b) that he has no soundness issues, Derby eased and Florida wars notwithstanding, c) his pedigree is not especially early and his pattern before he got sick was unbelievably strong for further development.

Elliott sent me a video of Upstart getting a break at Winstar a couple of days ago, I think an edited version is up on their site somewhere. Tell me how that horse looks.

[NormandyInvasion]

magicnight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hansel.


Ok, now I might have to start nitpicking.  Beaten 10 lengths.  Upstart was beaten by about 60 lengths.  It\'s not easy to be beaten that badly.

[magicnight]

You are nitpicking. I\'ll add Skip Away and suggest that there are as many fluky Derby winners as there are top-notch horses who did not run well in the Derby.