Some thoughts on Materiality

[covelj70]

First to be clear, none of this is anything I have heard from anyone, these are just my thoughts so please everyone take that into consideration when thinking about this.  I could be way off as it\'s just a theory.

I think Materiality had a minor muscle injury in his hind end for the Derby

I think the injury occurred when the horse starting training over the CD surface.  It is VERY common for horses to have muscle soreness/pulls/strains, etc when switching surfaces.  This is why trainers typically give horses a few easy jog days when they first ship to a new track to allow the horse to acclimate.  The Palm Beach Downs surface is very different from the CD surface and therefore a horse is using some different muscles when they go onto a new surface. When you are shipping into CD close to the Derby, you don\'t have time to give the horse a few easy jog days.  It\'s why I would either ship a few weeks out or right on top of the race but I wouldn\'t ship 10 days out.

Why do I think the horse had a pulled hind end muscle?

There was clearly something going on with the horse on Derby week.  He got hot in the paddock and at the gate in the morning (which he didn\'t typically do down in Florida) and he galloped on his wrong lead the first time around the track several times Derby week (another thing he never did before Derby week).  Importantly, like any athlete, with muscle tightness or a mild muscle strain, you can warm up out of it.  He did that the second time around in his gallops Derby week (as he was back on the proper lead the second time around) and I think he did it during the race itself.  The muscle that is bugging him loosens up, adrenaline gets pumping so you don\'t feel it as much, etc.

A muscle issue in his back end would also explain why he broke poorly.  Most of the time when a horse breaks poorly, it\'s because they have an issue in their hind end (i.e. the muscle they use to push off out of the gate).

The other thing about a back end muscle issue (maybe gluteal soreness?) is that you can\'t legally treat it so close to the race.

So, where does all of this leave us?

I think this horse could be super live for the Belmont.

I loved him prior to what I saw during Derby week training.  It was obvious there was something wrong which is why I got off him but if I have put the pieces together correctly here (huge if), then the muscle issue should be cleared up by the time of the Belmont and he has that huge fig to run back to.

He also has the grinding style that you want out of your Belmont horse and I don\'t think the distance will be any issue at all

Would love thoughts on this if anyone has any.

[mjellish]

I think this is dead nuts on regarding Mat as potential strong play in the Belmont.  I said the same thing earlier this week on the board.  He\'s got the number power to run back to and all things considered he ran very well in the Derby.  Plus Pletcher has figured out that if you send them out of the gate and stay close to the pace in the Belmont, most of the stretch runners lose their late kick at the 1 1/2 distance.  His runners have done well in this race.

[sekrah]

So everybody will be on Mat and Frosted in the Belmont. If AP goes down in the Preakness the Belmont looks like a dead betting race (I doubt Firing Line and Dortmund run all 3).

Even more of a reason to take a shot at AP in Pimlico.

[johnnym]

Sounds good to me,as your knowledge in this is better than mine..
As of yesterday according to bloodhorse Pletcher was on the fence about all 3 of his Derby starters regarding the Preakness..
Thanks for the knowledge.

[jbelfior]

I agree.But tough to beat the derby winner coming back in 2 weeks. They tend to hold their form and as I much as I loved Firing Line off the rest, I absolutely hate him coming back in 2 weeks. Just hope its not another Barbaro.

I have a feeling Dortmund doesn\'t go here and goes to NY instead. That\'s what I would do with him. I know there are many that do not feel he would get that trip, but i\'m not one of them.

With all due respect to Jim C and all of you who adore Materiality. Not sure what exactly he\'s beaten yet to make me think he is talented enough to simply go to the Belmont and win it. Does he have the mindset to relax? Can he get the trip? Florida division, IMO, way overrated.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[covelj70]

Joe B

I think you just offended all of the Upstart lovers on the board when you asked what Mat has beaten

If you liked Upstart in the Derby, you have to love the horse than beat him in only his 3rd lifetime start!

all that said, I do care about key races, etc but

1) what had American Pharoah beaten this year before the Derby?
2) I care about the TGs more than I do who has beaten whom

[TGJB]

The question is what do you do if Pletcher runs him back in the Preakness.

[Rich Curtis]

Sekrah:

Why would the Belmont possibly being a bad (or a good) betting race affect your decision about betting the Preakness?

[miff]

Materiality is so highly thought of by TAP that I would be very surprised he would risk racing him in the derby if he did not feel he was very close to 100%. Jim, as you know, many horses are raced even when not thought to be \"perfect\"

Agree with Jim that horses that are off behind will often break slowly.

On the AP \"skinny\" watch, a pal watched him get his bath this am and said AP appeared to be himself, i.e. not overly tucked up or light of flesh, for whatever that is worth when he comes under race stress next Sat.

[covelj70]

I would be shocked if Todd ran him in the Preakness but I wouldn\'t be anywhere near as bullish on his chances if he runs him in Baltimore as I would if he waited for the Belmont

[sekrah]

Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sekrah:
>
> Why would the Belmont possibly being a bad (or a
> good) betting race affect your decision about
> betting the Preakness?


Poor point by me. I\'ve never seen a bad opportunity to go against a 3-5 shot. The Preakness is a must-play regardless. If you lose, you get a 2-5 shot in the Belmont that you almost certainly will end up beating.

[Bet Twice]

Jim - I\'m with you on materiality being strong come Belmont time, assuming he looks good leading up to the race.  Best case scenario would be AP wins the Preakness convincingly and the two meet up again in NY.

[phil23]

It does sort of seem like there\'s at least more of a possibility than normal for Pletcher that one of CD or MAT runs next week eh? Usually by now he\'d have 100% ruled them out.

[RICH]

Why the hate on firing line, who\'s line still looks OK, and even on the short rest he did have those 5+ weeks. At 7/2 I can see looking elsewhere, but he has some shot, no?

[SoCalMan2]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I would be shocked if Todd ran him in the
> Preakness but I wouldn\'t be anywhere near as
> bullish on his chances if he runs him in Baltimore
> as I would if he waited for the Belmont

I would be plenty bullish on the Materiality\'s chances in the Preakness.  In fact, he is the horse I would view as most likely to pull off the upset of AP.