Oaks and Derby day numbers

[joemama]

I should approach the foreigners in this race by simply throwing them out as non of them, nada one has preformed well in this race. Pissed away enough money on them to pass out that advice.  Foreigners in the Belmont stakes maybe.

[Furious Pete]

\"I should approach the foreigners in this race by simply throwing them out as non of them, nada one has preformed well in this race.\"

I wouldn\'t have touched Mubtaahij either to have anything to do with the payoffs in the Kentucky Derby but really that\'s my, albeit, small issue here: according to the figs he DID perform well, just about a length poorer than his race in Dubai.

I know of course that what he beat over there wasn\'t an impressive bunch, all though I think you may be underrating them a bit, after all the purse was as big as the one in the Kentucky Derby and they aren\'t giving away that kind of money for free, are they?

Anyway, for a moment take away the entire field in the Kentucky Derby and let Mubtaahij run it one more time doing exactly what he did on saturday, is it really likely that his race was as good as the one he did in Dubai? Maybe it is, I\'m not sure. Just giving my humble opinion that I do find that just a tad doubtful, but if noone else has issues with it I\'m guessing that the issue here is me, and that I\'m okay with.

EDIT (COMMENT): (it could of course be more likely that if you for a minute assume that I would be the one that is correct, it is actually the figure from Dubai that is the problem (too slow), and not the one from the Kentucky Derby).

[smalltimer]

True that.  TGJB let sek and I go at it until he chose to step in and separate the fighters!
In the last couple weeks we\'ve had really intense exchanges between TGJB/Vito, TGJB/miff, and a handful of other spirited disagreements.
But, you have to admire the passion in this room, the room has a ton of talent, guys who really have a understanding of this sport. Anytime you get so many strong minded people there will be fireworks.
I read thehoarseplayers post that was re-posted a couple days ago.  What was a 3 minute read took me a half hour to digest.  I spent half the time looking in the dictionary to see what the hell a couple of words meant!!  For me, it was equivalent to the first time someone looks at the TG figures and asks, what the hell is guy talking about?
The upside of the room, hosts, and so many talented, passionate posters?  If you keep an open mind you will have to improve your chances to win.
The downside of being cast out of the room?  A steady diet of links to articles that someone outside their group wrote.  Links, so many articles to link to. So few people challenge the numbers that served as the foundation of people wagering real money.  The unwillingness to openly publish the before and after results.  TGJB puts it out there for the customers, he puts it on You Tube for the interested public to view.  You don\'t think that puts Jerry Brown in the line of fire when he likes a horse that doesn\'t perform?  That takes a pretty big pair, few people can handle that type of scrutiny. Dude comes in here, after the fact, ripping Jerry a new one for liking the same horse as the other place.  I didn\'t see anybody over there tearing the boss to shreds for a non-producing selection.
The dialogue, or lack thereof, the spirited exchanges, or lack thereof at the other place reminds me of the scene from Major League, where the dude addresses the group by saying, \"losing is a disease.\"  
So yeah, sek and I got after it for a bit, TGJB let it go then stepped in and said that\'s enough.  We\'ve all seen TGJB and miff go at it in a spirited debate, we\'ve seen others get after each other in here.  Those occasional battles are what defines the room, while at the same time creating a huge separation from among the customers here versus elsewhere.  This board has a bunch of guys who actually give a crap. With all the strong personalities in the room, it takes somebody like TGJB to say knock it off.  In here, if you\'re not ready to defend your position, you\'re gonna get steamrolled by opposing views. When sek has a position, he defends it. (And good luck steamrolling him!)

[T Severini]

joemama Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I should approach the foreigners in this race by
> simply throwing them out as non of them, nada one
> has preformed well in this race. Pissed away
> enough money on them to pass out that advice.
> Foreigners in the Belmont stakes maybe.


The Day will come when the evidence suggests its time to bet a Foreign Horse in the Derby.  Didn\'t see it with Mubtaajhi. Haven\'t seen it before either. However the fact they resurfaced Meydan makes that Day more likely.

[T Severini]

Furious Pete Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"I should approach the foreigners in this race by
> simply throwing them out as non of them, nada one
> has preformed well in this race.\"
>
> I wouldn\'t have touched Mubtaahij either to have
> anything to do with the payoffs in the Kentucky
> Derby but really that\'s my, albeit, small issue
> here: according to the figs he DID perform well,
> just about a length poorer than his race in Dubai.
>
>
> I know of course that what he beat over there
> wasn\'t an impressive bunch, all though I think you
> may be underrating them a bit, after all the purse
> was as big as the one in the Kentucky Derby and
> they aren\'t giving away that kind of money for
> free, are they?
>
> Anyway, for a moment take away the entire field in
> the Kentucky Derby and let Mubtaahij run it one
> more time doing exactly what he did on saturday,
> is it really likely that his race was as good as
> the one he did in Dubai? Maybe it is, I\'m not
> sure. Just giving my humble opinion that I do find
> that just a tad doubtful, but if noone else has
> issues with it I\'m guessing that the issue here is
> me, and that I\'m okay with.
>
> EDIT (COMMENT): (it could of course be more likely
> that if you for a minute assume that I would be
> the one that is correct, it is actually the figure
> from Dubai that is the problem (too slow), and not
> the one from the Kentucky Derby).


I\'m having a great deal of trouble comprehending why we are trying to use the oddball horse as a comparator for this race.

[smalltimer]

At this point the TG fig has been right on the button with the foreign 3 year old Derby entrants.  If or when the day comes and there is a foreign invader that\'s been firing some 0\'s or 1\'s over there, it could be silly to just dismiss that one, especially with FTL.

[Furious Pete]

I sure as hell wouldn\'t argue to hard that TGJB\'s judgment about the Kentucky Derby is poorer than mine, by all means it\'s probably superior to mine, I just thought it could be worthy of exploration if something could be just a notch off here, and I\'m leaning towards that it might be the Dubai # that could be a point or two too slow. You said it yourself, the day will come when you might have to consider those foreigners in the KD but the evidence is not there yet, nor will it ever be if one is not willing to even consider the possibility that they may be coming closer. If Mubtaahjid actually did run a # closer to 1 than to 3 in Dubai, that might be an evidence that they\'re getting there. It\'s a hard ask to any horse, and specially a 3yo, to ship to another continent to face the best horses on their best surface in the toughest races to perform well, and doing that without lasix, and in either case one would have to say that Mubtaahij ran very well regarding all this.

However, isn\'t it fair to assume that he might have liked it a bit better in Dubai? So if in fact the dubai # was a bit too slow, as you say they have changed the surface back to dirt again, that would have implications for the figures for all the horses that he faced that day also, which again could have implications for all the figures given to Dubai-runners later on. Don\'t ever think that I do not believe that TGJB and his associates hasn\'t thought long and hard about these questions, I\'m sure they have, but still this is not an exact science and it could be very hard to spot these trends with TG\'s methods (which by my understanding is the best methods by far) if you\'re not keeping an open mind about issues like these (after all it must be a much tougher job to make ratings in Dubai, than it is in America where one knows a lot about all the horses and their performances going a long way back). Specially because in those cases where one have American figures running in the Dubai it\'s all reversed, then it is the American runners that don\'t have lasix anymore and that have shipped all around the world, to another surface, another culture etc; then they are the one that are at disadvantage. Then they are the ones more unlikely to run to their true capabilities.

So for me, it\'s just an interesting discussion. If that is not welcome here, I will be happy to stay quiet and never question the figures ever again, and I would still be buying them because as far as I\'m concerned they are much the best available when betting horses in USA.

Pete

[toppled]

The closest thing we\'ve had in recent times is when Regal Ransom came back to the US after running a 2 in Dubai in a year when a 2 put him in the mix.  He ran 8th in the Derby.  A lot of people were picking him that day.

Mub didn\'t have the numbers, but also I didn\'t like the way he was brought over.  I think if someone wants to win a Derby with a UAE horse, they should have him on the plane within days of his UAE race, get him through quarantine and get him at Churchill Downs ASAP.  Let him train at CD.  Training him on poly in Chicago because he trained on synth in Dubai was ridiculous IMO.

[joemama]

OK, OK.  Sorry I said anything.  You gotta love this place. :-)

[smalltimer]

toppled,
I thought once he arrived at CD he was really up against it. Due to some of the reasons you cite. The days before they put him on a plane, then the logistics of being in Arlington to later be shipped to Skylight in Kentucky.
When the horse was not allowed his normal diet, the travel, training on the synthetic surface.  
He was short on TG numbers to begin with, add in all other factors and that some people said when the horse got to CD he looked travel weary and drawn.  That should be enough to consider him a non-threat in this field.  Having said that, I still had him in various places on several tickets, even though he truly was an underlay.  
I thought he ran okay running back to his established TG numbers. We all know running back to already slow numbers isn\'t gonna cut it.
Maybe in the future, horseman from Dubai will learn from this and make adjustments.  If they keep sending horses over here that have been running 3\'s and 4\'s, they\'ll keep running up the track.

[joemama]

It looks like he Mubtaahij preformed right up to his previous races but not better. My hope is that this horse has a better one in him.

Just read on the Blood Horse that this horse will now be pointed for the Belmont Stakes instead of being turned out. My probable bet in the Belmont since I have a tendency to bet the same horses in the triple crown series unless they perform miserably and this horse did not.

[smalltimer]

joe,
Are you crazy?  Wait til sek gets wind of your post.  At least you have 5 weeks.  LOL
j/k sek.  Peace out.

[joemama]

I have to stick with what works for me, even if I go broke. To me the fun with playing horses is doing what I want to irrespective of what anyone else thinks. I am still looking for the time I can say \"see, I told ya.\"

[joemama]

Well it looks like I might be getting my chance again to bet this horse in the Belmont Stakes.  Initially this was not going to be the case.  That is unless a horse like Commissioner pops up.  T , you were right in your assessment of this horse.  In the infamous Denny Green\'s words, \'he was who you thought he was\'.

[smalltimer]

joe,
\"I have to stick with what works for me, even if I go broke.\"

If I told that to my wife, she wouldn\'t like that plan at all.

I used to tell my wife when it comes to physiology, I\'m like an idiot savant.
She always said, \"you\'re half right.\"