Materiality Derby Post Mortem

[T Severini]

Materiality was my key and continues a period of poor Derby return. By now most know of the poor break and lost shoe, but what occurred during the race leads me to believe I selected an inexperiened horse but likely the best  horse as well. Hopefully his odds will be as generous next time. I certainly selected better than Velasquez.

Hopefully Upstart is ok, he didnt run his race at all.

The winner is a nice horse. He wasnt as wide as I hoped and between that and Firing Lines perplexing failure to change leads that was the difference. I am looking forward to the continued hype, hopefully this one will be odds on next trip.

Still here in Louisville on a tablet, forgive the typos.

[Tavasco]

Regarding your assessment of JV\'s choice of mounts. I looked at his history in the derby prior to the race. My view was he consistently under performs relative to the crowds confidence.

I am a JV fan so this not a criticism of his competence. Could be the crowd bets down the horses he chooses or he chooses for political reasons. Was it his derby winner that he fell into with the Albarado injury? Or do I have that backwards?

Then again, probably seemed the percentage play at the time he made the decision and really can only be faulted in hindsight.

[toppled]

JV\'s problem in the Derby is his loyalty to Pletcher.  Pletcher\'s problem is that he burns out his horses in the Derby preps.  Pletcher\'s horses get overbet in the Derby because their PPs look pretty good because they were cranked up for those Derby preps. A Pletcher horse with a negative # in his last Derby prep is usually paramutual death in the Derby, but they always get overbet. His only Derby winner didn\'t have a burnout prep.

I don\'t think he made a bad decision choosing Carpe Diem.  He chose him over an inexperienced horse. Carpe Diem had a much better foundation & wasn\'t bucking history.

[jbelfior]

Sometimes there\'s a reason a horse breaks bad other than bad luck.

Hopefully they bring him and Frosted back for the Preakness. They\'ll both take money and both need a break IMO.

Of the dead closers I thought that Keen Ice and Danzing Moon ran well under the circumstances. I think if Firing Line changes leads AP doesn\'t beat him and if that happens I pay for my daughter\'s wedding and if the queen had ...well you know.... she\'d be the king.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[toppled]

Pletcher\'s MO shows he won\'t bring Materiality back in the Preakness.  He\'ll either point him to the Belmont or give him a rest & point to the Travers.

[FrankD.]

Tavasco,

Not a JV fan here at all either. I feel he is THE most overrated jock to be considered in the sports all time upper echelon.

His agent, mentor and idle who was one of the sports all time greats drove his career, hooked him to the Pletcher wagon early on and made him a boat load of money. JV as with his main trainer need to be applauded as great businessman and both became rich.

BUT:
TAP and horseman should never be mentioned in the same breath nor should Johnny V and anywhere near the sports all time great jocks.

Frank D.

[smalltimer]

Frank,
I call TAP the energy vampire.  He fires up the troops all the way through the preps, makes all other good 3 year olds run their eyeballs out in order to collect enough points to make it to the Big Dance.
I looked at 3 of the major prep races and how the horses that emerged had performed in the Derby, and its pretty dismal.
From 2011 through yesterday, only a small 5 year sample, but it makes you wonder why people get all goo goo about some of these final prep races.

GP 14 Derby entrants, 1 win, 0 places, 0 shows, one 4th.  12 of 14 (86%) of horses miss the board in the Derby.

KEE 18 Derby entrants. 0 wins, 0 places, 1 show, 0 4th\'s.  17 of 18 (94%)of horses miss the board in the Derby.

AQU 11 Derby entrants. 0 wins, 0 places, 0 shows, 3 4th place finishers.  8 of 11 (73%) of horses miss the board in the Derby.

COMBINED GP/KEE/AQU.  43 horses, 1 win (Orb), 0 places, 1 show, 4 4th place finishes.  37 of 43 (86%) of horses from these 3 major preps miss the board in the Derby.

I know its cyclical, but 3 of the last 4 winners from the West Coast.

[miff]

\"but 3 of the last 4 winners from the West\"


...yea, those pesky not so fast West Coast horses, a pain in the derrière!

[FrankD.]

Mike did you give Jimbo your password?

[TGJB]

Please. The first four finishers were in the top two seminar groups and I said if FL was a point faster he would have made the top group. That\'s not claiming handicapping victory-- I didn\'t like AP at the price-- but the figures held up, unless you think the Derby went really fast.

Also A) there were a lot of other California horses that ran just over the weekend at CD, not just in the Derby, and B) CC in the Derby last year just ran to what we gave him in California, and that\'s only because we made the Derby FASTER than Beyer, not slower.

There\'s something else to consider here, that it\'s possible the Cal horses may just be more likely to run back to their figures (not X) because testing is stronger there than anywhere else, closer to what happens under GI supertesting.

So far Upstart apparently seems fine.

[miff]

Coincidentally, the first 3 finishers all won their last at 1 1/8th miles and had very little ground loading in their figs hmmmm, racetrack fast types.

AP ran 3.5 lengths more of ground than FL(refused to change leads) and 8 lengths more than Dortmund. Dortmund colicked recently, wore bell boots last few weeks(feet) and still managed to stay on for 3rd..ugh!


Testing in Cali has zero to do with anything. Baffert/others horses often run holes in the wind out there.Like TAP here,Baffert thought to be \"using\" Guess its mostly envy by those getting beat too often.

[TGJB]

Good to know Cal testing has nothing to do with anything. I\'ll let Rick Arthur know.

Who had \"ground loaded\" figures? Frosted, maybe? Casse horse that ran 5th?

If you\'re talking about the Blue Grass, I\'ll tell you again-- when there\'s a dead rail we don\'t use the horses that run inside to make the figures. We don\'t make the wide horses faster, we make the inside horses slower.

On his sheet you can see we had AP 3w both turns last time out to earn his figure, by the way.

[joemama]

ORb??

[miff]

Testing in Cali is no better than any major venue and Cali had/has less sophisticated testing equipment than NY for example,ask Rick Arthur about that.

AP is not a horse that profiles wide in several races, nor is Dort or FL. Someone here posted that Dort was marginally faster than Bolo...absurd. Methodology biased against fast ground saving types vs slower wide ground loss types. Adjust for ground AND speed(fast pace, dead rail) would be more reflective of performance, imo.

[TGJB]

You don\'t have the slightest idea what you\'re talking about re testing in Cal. Ask Scollay about Rick.