Frosted for the Preakness?

[Furious Pete]

I for one will be backing Frosted in the Preakness now, looked like the best horse in the race as things turned out.. Surely there must be more pace on then?

[sekrah]

Remember mjellish\'s point about Pharoah and his weight loss..

Huge opportunity ahead if Baffert gets this one to post.

[beazley]

Materiality ran an interesting race. Broke slow, shuffled back. A bit wide on far turn and had only a couple horses beat turning for home. Then angled in and passed everyone but the top 5. I\'d play him back too.

[miff]

It\'s official again, dosage dead, distance breeding not that relevant if a contender gets 1 1/8th with finish. Based on raw time, track slowed, can\'t run last quarter in 26.3 off those splits and no one really charged home.

[smalltimer]

miff,
Off topic, but would you say Materiality went back 4 or 5 pts today?

[miff]

Small,

Materiality got mangled when OP two jumps out.Hearing much that Materiity and Frosted closed but that was an optical illusion into a pathetic last split of 26.57. Looking at the route after the derby makes it look even slower.Will be interesting how TG, Beyer et al handle the fig.

Yes, Mat went back a few points but it\'s a number that should be ignored because he was in trouble from the start.

Winner ok, no Seattle Slew, my press, Firing Line very gallant taking Dortmund head on and staying very gamely when AP came to him.


Mike

[smalltimer]

Thanks Mike.

[smalltimer]

Materiality wasn\'t a complete illusion into that slow last quarter.  At the 1 Mile mark, he was back 14 lengths and was beaten at the wire by 7 1/2 lengths so there was  a 6 1/2 length gain on the leader. I think Materiality got the last quarter in about 25.4, not flying, but not an illusion either.
Even Keen Ice, who was behind a total wall of horses with no place to go, and eventually just bulled his way through Itsaknockout and Far Right with an angled splitting of tired horses managed in the last eighth to go from 14 1/2 lengths back to be beaten 8 1/2 lengths on the wire, that\'s still 6 lengths into that slow last quarter.
Looked to me like 12 really poor performances from the field, including some that were expected to have their doors blown off, and then the really major disappointment of Carpe Diem and Upstart, and less major disappointment of Bolo, and of course the accompanying trouble by Materiality.
The two that ran well, even if the final number doesn\'t show it are Danzig Moon and Keen Ice and you\'d have needed a search warrant to find them after the top placement horses.

[jerry]

Dosage has been fairly meaningless or at least changing for a while.

http://www.chef-de-race.com/images/med_di_vs_yr.gif

[miff]

Small,

The mystery will not be easy to solve re the slow time posted.Sources there who pay attention claim track was heavily watered pre derby and yet the slow time. The front 3 were gassed at the quarter pole yet no horse made a serious rally, split wise( your comments re Mat and others noted but still their split is slow unless the track slowed very dramatically without any serious weather/wind)

Beyer guy tells me track was fast early, slow mid card, faster last 2 races, told him to have a Kool Aid.


Mike

[jerry]

Here\'s a plotting for the winner.

http://www.chef-de-race.com/images/di_vs_yr.gif