Overlay (Upstart)

[rossi3839]

Excellent seminar and well worth it!  I am leaning towards Upstart as my key horse. What do you think would be fair odds to make him a overlay?

[kencbs]

I can\'t answer that question, but I can tell you that currently in early wagering he\'s 33-1. A lot of people here would love to get that on him.

Ken

[P-Dub]

Why is Upstart 3X the price of Frosted??

At that price, isn\'t this horse the one to key?  Much like Shook Up today??

[justwin]

only $180 k in the pools. He will be lower tomorrow.

[rossi3839]

P-Dub, my exact thoughts.  However, I think he will be closer to 15-1 based on DD will pays.

[justwin]

19-1 based on doubles payout. $296 for $2. Maria Paid $14.60. Great value

[big18741]

He\'s only a good bet if you think he can run his top at this distance.

We know he\'s gonna lose a lot of ground.
He does in every race from outside posts in smaller fields.

If he backs up a couple and he\'s wide both turns is he even in the tri?

[rhagood]

Has any Derby runner had 4 negative numbers coming in?
Nothing comes to mind, if so this will be unchartered territory for a 3 year old.

[justwin]

i think if he pairs he wins. in this race, i\'d rather lose ground than worry about getting trapped inside. please don\'t start beating me up on this, its for this race only with the huge field.

[big18741]

No argument there but I\'m playing him to back up a couple.

If I\'m wrong he\'s trouble even with the wide.