Has Pletcher Started a Derby horse with a better pattern than Carpe Diem?

[miff]

Sek,

Wary of ground loaded figs from 4/4 at Kee, track profile was heavily tilted to wide paths there.Same with Carpe Diem


Mike

[toppled]

On Materiality: When was the last time a Pletcher trained horse ran that fast in his last Derby prep & did anything in the Derby?

[richiebee]

Impressive stuff. Let me be the second to congratulate you!

[ajkreider]

Line is Steller Wind at 7-2.  Don\'t know why JB thinks this is bad betting race.

[TGJB]

Not what I said, especially not now.

[TGJB]

And by the way, by good betting race I mean there\'s an advantage in betting it, that the public opinion and mine are not the same. I do NOT mean a wide open race, which is what it is often used to mean, for some reason I don\'t understand.

[sekrah]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Carpe Diem follows same pattern as Super Saver


Was looking for a Pletcher comp for Carpe Diem, and it\'s not perfect, but I think a decent one is Any Given Saturday back in 2007. Big 2yo race, ran a new top 4 months later, paired it up on 3 weeks rest and came into the Derby on 4 weeks rest. He could pair up here and run respectable, but I think the chances of him running a fresh top with the poor spacing are low, and he needs a 2 pt top with a decent trip to win.

AGS got 2 months rest after the Derby and after winning the Dwyer would end up crushing Curlin in the Haskell.  This is where I see Carpe Diem.

https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/kd2007.pdf - AGS Finished 8th.

[tomquinones]

Looks like Elliott Walden has narrowed his handicapping down to six.  Carpe Diem\'s made the cut.  

Walden Q&A article

[jp702006]

The question we should be asking is: Has Pletcher ever trained a Derby runner that is as mentally fragile as this one?

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yeah I take that back mjellish.  Others liked him,
> Michael D was pretty high on him too. But I
> remember getting a lot of grief for how much I
> loved him, but that was probably more for my
> \"don\'t hold back\" posting style than anything.
>
> Nobody else got this post:
> https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,59164
> ,59164#msg-59164
>

Forget what you posted, but to get this response from me (of all people), you must have been very high on him.

The discussion over the past few weeks has been tremendous. As previously mentioned, this is a big reason favorites have done much better recently than in the past.  Plenty of information out there.

JB,
Your community is second to none. Looking forward to the seminar.

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mmm, that Maria is looking so Lovely in that
> 7-hole.


Nice call Sek.

And JB, outstanding job with the call on Shook Up.  Nice exacta and tri with the horses that were fastest plus the nice longshot you were all over.

[TGJB]

I did well, but I\'m trying to deal with not having played the high 5. Which is mostly what I did last year.

[sekrah]

Wasn\'t going to use Shook Up at all til I seen the analysis.  Did include lightly because of it so ty JB.. Nice win ticket but it would have been kind of bittersweet if I whiffed on the exotics.. Nice day with TGs.. I hope tomorrow is even nicer.

[rossi3839]

Congrats on your long shot from the seminar. Good luck tomorrow!

[big18741]

I\'m no pro but only used her to run 1-2 as a key in all my bets.

First,third and 4th horses not real difficult to use in exactas,tri\'s and supers if you play all those exotics.

Wish the Derby were this straight forward.