Has Pletcher Started a Derby horse with a better pattern than Carpe Diem?

Agastache · April 28, 2015, 07:46:55 AM

Originally, I couldn\'t get away from this horse fast enough after his Blue Grass effort was labeled slow by the Beyer bean counters.

After several days of studying Thoro Graph and watching all of his previous races, I\'m trying to resist the temptation to jump back aboard. Seriously, has TAP ever had a contender look this ready to make a forward move, ever? Horse pairs up his 2 year old top with an easy victory in Tampa. Then, pairs again with an easy victory in the BlueGrass.

He\'s got Elliot Walden in his corner, the trainer that gave us flying finishes by Menifee and Victory Gallop. Johnny V selected him over the prodigy- Materiality. Pedigree is sufficient. 2 good works since the last prep.

Looks to me like his campaign has been manufactured to produce a new top on Derby day.

sekrah · April 28, 2015, 07:57:26 AM

Honestly, I prefer Materiality\'s pattern.

Carpe Diem\'s long-term soundness does not look good to me. I\'d rather have seen him here without running in the Bluegrass. Looks like a horse that needs rest/spacing to run his best.

miff · April 28, 2015, 08:08:23 AM

Carpe Diem follows same pattern as Super Saver for Pletcher/Walden, 2 preps to the derby. Strong possibility CD is getting there as plannned. Kinda light Beyers a concern esp Bluegrass day which was very kind to the outer paths all day, and where CD was.

CD a grinder/cruiser who should relish the distance.

sekrah · April 28, 2015, 08:16:59 AM

Super Saver\'s pattern was much more healthier than Carpe Diem\'s. I remember, I was one of only a couple people on this board who had SS, and nobody was more in love with him then me.

The difference is SS never went backwards and was healthy enough to run a 4th race at 2. It may seem like a minor subtlety, but based on my experience I believe they are significantly different patterns.

mjellish · April 28, 2015, 08:23:14 AM

Only person on this board who had Super Saver? Sek, he was the seminar pick. As I recall almost everyone on this board liked SS. In fact, aside from Jimbo and Miff I was thinking I was maybe the only person on this board who didn\'t like Super Saver.

miff · April 28, 2015, 08:26:28 AM

I did NOT dislike Super Saver, despised him!

sekrah · April 28, 2015, 08:32:19 AM

Yeah I take that back mjellish. Others liked him, Michael D was pretty high on him too. But I remember getting a lot of grief for how much I loved him, but that was probably more for my \"don\'t hold back\" posting style than anything.

Nobody else got this post: https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,59164,59164#msg-59164

Quote from: Sekrah, you have the floor

sekrah · April 28, 2015, 08:39:36 AM

Here\'s a jimbo classic from that Derby:

QuoteSekrah,

I just wish I could book your bets on Super Saver.

This horse has NEVER passed any horse in any race. Do you expect a \"wire to wire\" win now? No, you expect Borel to suddenly become \"magical\" and this horse will now face the toughest pace he will face at the longest distance and he will rate off of it and power home. Please....

He is coming out of the two preps that I believe are near the bottom of the list of preps as far as quality goes this year. I already mentioned that I think it is a HUGE minus that I couldn\'t get by a staggering Line of David, but he also spit the bit in a HORRIBLE Tampa Bay derby where he set his own pace and got passed by two horses that have both come back to run terrible since. So, his \"big race\" was his win over William\'s Kitten?

Forget it. THis horse has maybe a 2% chance to win, at best.

miff · April 28, 2015, 08:40:55 AM

1.Forever Unb

2.Shook Up

3.Inc Betty

4.Eskformoney

5.Condo Comm

6.Angela Ren

7.Lovely Marie

8.Im Chatterbox

9.Monsonchar

10.Ocean Wave

11.Sarah Sis

12.Stellar Wind

13.Birdwire

14.Puca

TGJB · April 28, 2015, 08:45:52 AM

You count \"can\'t pass a horse\" as sheet theory?

FrankD. · April 28, 2015, 08:54:20 AM

OHHH Boy,

Must be writing the seminar, he\'s getting grumpy!

TGJB · April 28, 2015, 08:58:42 AM

Nope. I\'m in a great mood. Mets in first, Nets win 2 playoff games (not that they\'re going anywhere, but neither are the Hawks), Seminar stuff mostly done, involved with a Derby contender. Good week.

Older daughter went to school with Deron\'s daughter, and favorite Met is Daniel Murphy. She had a good night.

TGJB · April 28, 2015, 08:59:13 AM

Depends what kind of girl you like.

miff · April 28, 2015, 09:01:22 AM

Any guess on Oaks chalk?

sekrah · April 28, 2015, 09:03:35 AM

Mmm, that Maria is looking so Lovely in that 7-hole.