Hypothetical...

[miff]

MJ,

I believe only lasix is race day for the derby.Many permitted drugs are 72 hours out and have little punch 3 days later.Could be that anti-inflammatory/bute unstacked, is permitted 24 hours out.So many different rules at the different venues make it hard to remember.

Ice tubs and some old fashioned cold water hosing/bandages used.

Mike

[TGJB]

You are missing the point. I know some of them hold together.

[mjellish]

But other races aren\'t the KY Derby.  There\'s only one of them, so if they think the horse can get through they are going to run him. Think about the travel plans for the owners and their group, etc., that would have to be canceled.  

In just your ordinary claiming, maiden, alw race or whatever, if the horse has an issue they can wait till next week or next month or whatever if they want to.  They can also leave the horse entered and scratch out if need be.  But you aren\'t scratching out of the KY Derby unless you absolutely have to.  Don\'t see many of them scratch when it rains compared to what happens in other \"every day\" races.

And to Miff\'s point, Empire Maker missed significant training leading up to the KY Derby and his issue was well documented.  He still took 3rd.  

I Want Revenge was one that just couldn\'t go.  Eskendereya, Uncle Mo, Buddha, some others.

[Wrongly]

Heck anyone who saw Barbaro at CD and again in Maryland knew they had a problem. Pressure of all kinds kept him in the race.

[Agastache]

Archarcharch, was allegedly, standing on 3 legs the morning of his Derby. That did not end well.

[TGJB]

You are making my point. I don\'t know why this is difficult.

People run horses here that they wouldn\'t otherwise. That needs to be taken into account in handicapping.

And I\'m not talking about things like Empire Maker being off or horses missing a work, though obviously those things have their place. But there are sound patterns (International Star, for example), unsound ones, and ambiguous ones.

If a horse has a 15% chance of going wrong in the race it doesn\'t change things that much if you\'re getting 25-1. It matters a hell of a lot if you\'re taking one of the favorites.

[mjellish]

Well good.  Then glad we agree.

[ajkreider]

Supposedly a great work from LM as well.  Bird might not win, but I can\'t see leaving out of the tri.

[firmturf]

Without having the Derby Thoro in front of me I answer your questions this way:

It would most likely be a horse that didn\'t react the way I thought they should have. My example would be a horse runs a big top, I expect them to react but instead they improve.

Part two of your question:

I hope they react at an even lower price making a more valuable betting opportunity for myself.

[miff]

\"who is your oaks pick?\"


Leaning to Stellar Wind though Sadler harmless out of Cali. If Luminance out, or not, Rudy sending CC to try wire, no real speed in here. Think she may get back to her best which is too fast for these,been babied for this. Bird horse saver. Tossing the Cowboy\'s duo.

[TGJB]

Let me put it this way.

I bet with both hands against Barbaro in the Preakness, Big Brown in the Belmont, and Shared Belief last week. I stated publicly before the race that I feared for the well being of Go For Wand and Eight Belles (check out that Derby seminar, both the comments on her and in the summary at the end). There have been others too-- I Want Revenge, etc. The only time I\'ve been wrong about this that I recall was Rachel, I was terrified when she ran in the Preakness.

All of these were based on handicapping and sheets theory (Miff\'s Kool-Aid). There\'s nothing that extreme this year. But it\'s all a matter of percentages.

[TGJB]

By the way, did you see the Rag sheet on CC??? Holy crap.

[miff]

Yes, I\'ve told you many times, if you dont lose ground over there it\'s very hard to get a good figure.

[PatrickM]

Bolo: injured in January, delayed start until March, owners overzealous and overriding the trainer. Odds are right but won\'t be on a ticket of mine and may not even make it to the race.

Materiality: Late start to career, fast Pletcher runner, owner\'s living out a dream/fantasy. Odds may be decent though. Has look of being rushed to Derby. Islamorada = Timely Writer imo.

Patrick

[TGJB]

There\'s a much better parallel, and you don\'t have to go back that far. You won\'t find him in the Derby archives, however.

Which is not to say this one won\'t be entered, or will necessarily bounce if he is.