Hypothetical...

[TGJB]

...and it\'s just that. Not based on any information whatsoever.

If you heard one horse was withdrawn because of a soundness problem (not because it didn\'t train well or any other reason) between now and raceday, who would it most likely be? And should the same thinking factor into handicapping the race?

[Topcat]

The favorite . . . . (foot/horse, etc.).

[mjellish]

Race day meds can get them through a lot.

[miff]

JB,

I would guess that like 15 derby hores have some issue, minor and upwards,requiring maintenance. Since they all had their final work,think galloping this week should give some mini hint of soundness.If they gallop sound, you gotta think they\'re ok going in. Any horse can \"blow a tire\" once the gate opens.

So fyi, and think its meaningless but, AP wears a plate with what looks like an egg bar and had a suspensory.Asked someone who sees him regularly if there were signs that he was pinfired, could not tell.


Dortmund is stiff on occasion in the am and rerportedly has feet issues.

Firing Line was off a little in Feb/Mar was shock waved and who knows about the rest?


Mike

[Agastache]

I think the obvious answers for me are:

1) American Pharoah with the bar shoe (reminds me of the Unbridled\'s Song circus and his training in the bar shoe.  Don\'t know if the bar shoe was the problem or the incredibly hot pace that did him in)

2) Materiality- because that\'s what these Pletcher horses do.

My guess is that one or both of these will be retired to stud in the next 5 weeks.

[johnnym]

Miff never heard about the Dortmund and feet issues..As of now he is my top pick.
JB for your question.
Materiality, Pletcher always seems to loose one due to soundness,

As far as handicapping I have enough issues handicapping this race based on fact,never mind hypothetical..
Good Luck

[ajkreider]

Materiality is the one.  And it does figure into my handicapping.  Too much too soon, and all that.

[SoCalMan2]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...and it\'s just that. Not based on any
> information whatsoever.
>
> If you heard one horse was withdrawn because of a
> soundness problem (not because it didn\'t train
> well or any other reason) between now and raceday,
> who would it most likely be? And should the same
> thinking factor into handicapping the race?


My guess is that I would look at horses that ran big negative figs early as such grueling efforts may be able to be looked upon as the origin of the soundness issues.  I still have no idea who you may be talking about and who it is.  However, from the handicapping standpoint, I am looking at these horses in tiers.  I am assuming that some of the ones in the tier will fire their best shot and some will flop.  So, I have one tier which has the 4 fastest horses in it....I am prepared if 2 fire a good shot and 2 are nowhere.  I hate spreading so much, but I think it is the way you need to do it.

[miff]

John,

Dortmund, as you know is a huge animal.If physicality decides this derby, Dortmund wins. A drawback of very large horses is body soreness out of races and jarring from heavy body powering thru the cushion.Issues of stiffness and sore feet after a race are almost meaningless when a horse is treated and shows recovery from it within days.

You will never almost never see Baffy final work a horse like Dortmund in 1.13+ as he did on Sat.Baffy had a plan there,Dortmund could have easily worked much faster.


Mike

[TGJB]

I am NOT talking about a specific horse, and have no inside info. I\'m making a point about factoring percentages into handicapping.

[phil23]

On the distaff side, Baffert said this morning that both of his (Luminance and Mabellene) are no lock to be run, said he might not enter either in fact. Both worked today, the latter apparently outworked by Lord Nelson.

[SoCalMan2]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am NOT talking about a specific horse, and have
> no inside info. I\'m making a point about factoring
> percentages into handicapping.


Okay, well I got into that in the second half of my answer -- I have my horses separated into tiers -- I am ready for half of each tier to not fire and half to fire.  It requires a bunch of spreading, but it seems like you need to do that....relying too much on one horse just seems to scary....especially when there are such possible prices to be had....

[TGJB]

About to start recording the Oaks part of the seminar, that\'s a great big pain in the butt.

[jp702006]

Based on the sheets, it didn\'t appear to me that the Baffert runners were in the top tier for the Oaks???

[miff]

You must be getting old, Oaks a piece of cake compared to derby.