any early thoughts on pace?

[HP]

Any early thoughts on pace as a way to separate these?

[johnnym]

This has been my biggest stump so far..
I\'m guessing there could be up to 7 horses in the lead pack..
Post position will be a big deal..What if A.P gets far outside? Do you gun him to try to save ground on the turn?  Other jocks keep him boxed outside?
Dortmund a big ol horse with good early pace figures worse situation is to get him boxed in.. Where do you place him?
My best guess is an honest pace 46 and change for the half then the splits will really pick up..
Like to hear others opinions.

[mjellish]

No clue. And I\'m not going to bother trying to guess this year unless I know for a fact that connections plan to send.  Who knows?  I never saw Palace Malice going to the front two years ago.

[jp702006]

I think there is a possibility that firing line goes. Just my opinion.

[johnnym]

I was thinking Ocho or Dortmund

[bstaubs22]

After Cassidy sent Ocho Ocho Ocho 6f\'s from the gate today and then stated he intends to blow him out 3f\'s Wed at CD, I\'m thinking they realize the only way for them to have a chance is to go W2W. I do think with Firing Line being fresh, if he is drawn inside he will have no choice and that could quicken things up even more.

[johnnym]

Firing line last work he started behind 2 horses Stevens in the Irons.
Not really expecting that,but I may be wrong..

[miff]

Many will be looking for forward position but not necessarily the lead unless they inherit it cheaply.

Should be a prop bet based on how the field will be positioned after the first quarter is run.

[mbeychok]

My thought this year on pace can be summed up in one word - fast. these are fast horses who go fast early and there is an abundance of those in the field. It would defy logic to assume that this one race they will all of a sudden decide to rate kindly and take back leaving one of \'em on the lead. I\'m playing for a pace collapse. One horse who i have a strong opinion on is Dortmound. My read is he just doesn\'t want other horses in front of him - ever. Which makes him a tough read IMO. He runs faster than his competition but outruns them every step of the way. Now, he will have early company up front and I\'m not convinced he can or will rate kindly. In a smaller field, say the Preakness, he would be a serious win candidate but in a 20 horse field - I just think there will be that outlier - like a Palace Malice - to challenge him early and cook his goose. Michael

[smalltimer]

If Ocho Ocho Ocho goes wire to wire in this field, I\'m gonna need a paper shredder.  With equal posts, I see at least 7-8 horses that will outrun him to the turn.  
In looking at the last 10 Derby races, there\'s not much to glean.  I do notice that Kent D has shipped near the front twice with Brown and Stormello, not in the lead but within the top 4 at the turn.
Martin Garcia shipped to the front twice for Baffert with Chitu and Conveyance.
Castellanos in the top 5 on both Gemologist and Discreetly Mine.
Victor Espinoza way back on Sinister Minister and last year with Chrome.
Johnny V was near the front with Cowboy Cal and Verrazano.
Mike Smith shipped on top with both Palice Malice and Bode.
Luis Saez has been in the top 6 at the 2f call on both Falling Sky and Wildcat Red last year.
Leparoux with Cool Coal Man and Sedgfield, but that was 6-7 years ago.
Bejarano shipped with both Papa Clem and another one I don\'t remember in 2010.

We all know post draw, speed trapped on the inside, getting out clean can make or break half the field.  Just last year I think there were about 8-10 trouble calls right out of the gate.

Just because a trainer is planning to ship doesn\'t mean the horses on the inside or outside don\'t bear in or out like last year with Wicked Strong.

I think Dortmund, Upstart, Materiality, Pharoah, Firing Line, Bolo, and a couple others are likely to be somewhere in the top 4-5 on the turn unless they have trouble when the bell rings.  I doubt any of them would turn down the trip if they accidentally landed on the lead.  

The horses in the second flight have a great shot to run big if a couple of tigers tie into each other at a real brisk pace.  Its a total crap shoot and I couldn\'t take issue with anyone who has an opposing view.

I think most years, most jockeys will tell you its just a scramble out of the gate, try to secure some kind of path into the turn and then get straightened away on the backside before the horse and jockey can even take a relaxed breath.

The constant I\'ve used is which 5 are likely to be where they should be heading into the first turn and that\'s usually the 5-6 slowest breaking horses.  At least they can start positioning and trying to pick off horses and still try to run their race.

This is probably my least favorite Derby in 10-15 years to wager on.  So many good ones and even most of the 2nd tier horses are dangerous.  Gonna take a helluva horse to win this thing.  I\'m always mindful that 16 damn good 3 year olds aren\'t even gonna make the super.  Looks awful tough to me, but I\'m taking my shots regardless.  

Sorry for the whining.

[pizzalove]

The problem with the pace here is that everytime you hear that there is a lot of early speed the jocks and trainers hear the same thing and adjust strategy.  The problem with this derby is that Baffert has two speedy horses.  He will send one of them right to the lead and then try to slow the pace to a crawl.  If that happens it could be a baffert baffert exacta.  

I would hate to see this scenario but I have seen many jockeys and trainers screw up Kentucky derbies quite often.  I think a horse like firing line has a chance to go wire to wire if he can get the lead.  But rest assured baffert will be gunning for it.

[Michael D.]

A lot depends on post position. If Dort draws way inside, I would imagine he\'s going low 46\'s.

Remember when Balto Star and Songandaprayer drew 1 and 3? That\'s why they went :44.86 that year.

[sekrah]

Would be shocked if Firing Line was sent. They\'ve been training this horse to rate (and he\'s been accepting) for a while now. Stevens will almost certainly have him off the pace.

[sekrah]

pizzalove Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The problem with this derby is that
> Baffert has two speedy horses.  He will send one
> of them right to the lead and then try to slow the
> pace to a crawl.
>


Yeah, good luck with that one with this field.

[smalltimer]

I agree.  I think an unfavorable post forces the hand on the early speed types.  
I can\'t imagine rounding the turn with Dortmund on the inside, Pharoah in the middle and Firing Line 3 wide.  Followed by Upstart, Materiality, Bolo just a length behind them.  That\'s an awful lot of young talent facing each other in a fairly small space.