Negative figs in final prep race

[vagrant]

Since 2001, horses that ran a negative number in their final prep races are almost three times more likely to win the Derby than those who didn\'t.

The negatives are 24-3-2-3: 13% win, 33% ITM.

All others are 241-11-12-11: 4.6% win, 14% ITM.

Winners: Orb, Big Brown, Smarty Jones.

Second: Bodemeister, Lion Heart.

Third: Musket Man, Curlin, Afleet Alex.

[mjellish]

Theory here will be two preps, pair of tops and 5 weeks rest best pattern.  Preferably fast enough to win already.  Not a rule of course.  But fair amount of data behind all of that.  

Would think that fits Mat, Star, Firing Line and Dubai horse to a tee.  With only two of those being fast enough to win already though.

[vagrant]

Funny how the rest angle doesn\'t seem to help Pletcher at all. In fact, seven of his eight top-4 finishes came of three weeks rest.

With three weeks off, he\'s 21-1-2-2-2.

With 4+ weeks, he\'s 17-0-0-1-0.

He babies his horses into the Derby too much, imo. The three-week crew is tougher, tighter and clearly perform better -- no matter what their odds.Three of those 7 were 30-1 or higher. It\'d probably be 4 of 7 if Impeachment hadn\'t been coupled in 2001.

[TGJB]

Ah, we\'ve arrived back on Planet Thorough-Graph.

One of the toughest thins things this time of year is picking through the noise and figure out what\'s relevant and what\'s not.

[ajkreider]

Isn\'t that mostly a factor of being the fastest horse?  Even with the last couple years, a negative number in a prep seems pretty rare.  With large samples, we should expect the fastest horses going in to win, a lot.