Who will JV pick?

[covelj70]

I am desperate to change the topic from this drug nonsense so I will just throw it out there to see who everyone thinks Jonny V will pick to ride for the Derby, Carpe Diem or Materiality?

also, bonus points for guesses about whether Castellano or Mike Smith wind up on the one that JV doesn\'t pick.

JV to decide in next 24 hrs and both Javy ad Smith have been mentioned as possibilities on other two

please please please someone help us change the topic......

[smalltimer]

Either would be a great choice.  Is Joe Bravo named?  Pletcher might have liked the way he rode Danza last year in the Arkansas and Kentucky Derby.

[HP]

No offense but what difference does it make to you what other people want to talk about?  You can change the topic anytime and you can skip strings and posts you aren\'t interested in without knocking other people?  

I\'ll go you one better.  Between JV, Castellano and Mike Smith, you think whoever rides which horse is going to be a decisive factor?  Post position might wipe out a horse no matter who rides, right?  I understand you might think JV will pick based on which one he thinks is the better horse and that may have value, but maybe it doesn\'t?  What if he picks a horse and he trains bad up to the Derby?  Goes off his feed?  Then he\'s stuck with a lemon and maybe the guy who got second choice made out better?  Maybe this is \"jockey nonsense?\"  One man\'s ceiling is another man\'s floor.  With all the variables I could care less who he picks and I think the \"drug nonsense\" may have more impact, but that\'s just my opinion.  

Given your knowledge I\'d be more curious about which specific jock might give an edge to either Materiality and Carpe Diem?

[vagrant]

Left to his own devices, I bet he picks Materiality. He seems to have more athletic sizzle than Carpe Diem.

[vagrant]

I suspect the idea is to get people to stop beating a dead horse and start talking about live ones.

[HP]

Okay.  I\'ll clear the floor since you\'ve decided this is more important.

[vagrant]

The floor remains open on the other thread.

Later on, maybe start a new thread letting us all know when & how you fellas settled this matter by arguing it on an Internet message board.

[covelj70]

HP

People are most obviously free to talk about whatever they want.  One of the many cool parts of this board is that JB allows people a lot of latitude before he shuts something off in true libertarian fashion.  I think that\'s awesome.  He doesn\'t have to do that but he does and the board is better off for it.

I just hate it when the best time of the year for the game I love becomes more about drugs and less about horses so I figured I would redirect the conversation a bit (or at least try to)

I think Johnny picks Materiality and Javier goes to Carpe Diem but that\'s just a guess based on how well Materiality is doing right now.

I think Mike Smith is the best money jockey in the game so I would rather see JV pick Carpe Diem and Smith ride Materiality.

To your point about jocks not always making the right choice, JV passed up on riding Orb out of loyalty to the connections of his other mount and he has since vowed to take loyalty out of the equation and pick the horse he thinks give him the best choice for whatever that\'s worth.

[HP]

I got the info I wanted, thanks.  Let me know how this thread goes.  

Now you got me thinking.  The only time Pletcher won the Derby was with Borel.  The only time Johnny V won was when he rode for another trainer.  My 4/20 line says Materialty (Pletcher/GP horse) + JV = another loser for JV.  

I\'m curious as to how many Pletcher horses have finished up the track in the Derby with JV in the saddle.  I really don\'t remember.  How many Pletcher place and show horses with JV and how many came from Florida (even though I know this has nothing to do with drugs since you have declared this subject a \"dead horse\").  It would be interesting to see if JV has a pattern of picking those GP horses or other Pletchers, since you think his opinion is important.  If he picks Carpe Diem based on past history maybe you\'re onto something?  How about evaluating how his Pletcher choices have done to date?  Of course he may not always have a choice but I think it\'s an interesting question.  

When JV calls me I will tell him I think he should ride Carpe Diem.  Standing by for insights.

[HP]

I hear you Jim and love your posts.  I\'m sorry but the drug thing matters when the money goes in, and going against Pletcher in the big dance has worked out a lot of the time.  I hate having to think about it but it\'s there, and it\'s real.

[joemama]

I am going to guess he will pick the Winstar/Stonestreet connection vice the Alto connection.  That would be worth more to him down the road in the long run , from a business perspective.

[covelj70]

HP

I agree that\'s it\'s very real (and I hate that it is) but I just think there\'s a better way to make judgements about these kinds of things than looking at numbers or a piece or paper or constantly referring to testimony from 3 years ago.

We can watch how the horses are doing in the mornings and make our judgments based on that.

I was very vocal and clear back in 2013 that other than Palice Malice, Pletcher\'s horses looked terrible by the time the Derby came around so he was the only one I used on my ticket and he ran a great race and followed it up with an even better one.

The whole world knew that Verazanno was bad by Derby time and Uncle Mo was completely over the top even before he scratched.  I could go through the same argument for almost all of his Derby horses and that\'s the reason why most of them have not gone off at low prices.

It was a different story with Super Saver.  He looked great prior to the Derby.

I think Materiality looks amazing and I think Carpe Diem doesn\'t.  

That\'s how I make a decision on these things, not by arguing about something someone said 3 years ago that has nothing to do with how the horses running in this Derby are training now.

[touchgold]

covelj.....how about this for changing topics...LRCX crushed numbers today.

[smalltimer]

HP,
I\'ll chime in.
Pletcher with JR in the Derby 3-0-0-0 back to 2010, I think.

Devil May Care from GP
Verrazano from AQU
Intense Holiday from FG

Hope I didn\'t miss one.

[HP]

You always have good insights.  I usually toss the Pletchers but I will listen to you.  The one year I used a Pletcher horse it was Invisible Ink (!) but I did not have Monarchos and got nothing.  

Extending your current observation to their logical conclusion it really doesn\'t matter who JV picks in terms of who you like?  You are just curious?  Because if he picked Carpe Diem it wouldn\'t matter because you think he looks bad, right?  Maybe if you respect his opinion and he picked Carpe Diem you would give him a second look based on this?