Super Key Poll

[Fairmount1]

If you had to pick one horse to key in all four positions of the super, who would your key be based on no factor other than he is the most likely horse you believe would finish in the top four regardless of odds?  

I don\'t even care one bit if you don\'t believe the horse is the likeliest winner.  Just the likeliest to hit the super.

[jp702006]

I would have to go with captain obvious.......AP.  I know, not much of a stretch.

[mjellish]

Carpe Diem if and only if he trains well and gets no worse than a neutral draw. He takes dirt, he can tuck in and switch out to save ground, he\'s nimble, he tries hard even when things don\'t go his way, stays focused, listens to his jock, can reel off at least nine 12 and change 1/8ths, bred to get 1 1/4...

Post parade may be more stressful on him than the race.

[Bet Twice]

I don\'t like him on the win end but think Dortmund will hit the back end of the super.

[big18741]

Impossible for me without the final prep #\'s,the works,and most importantly the
draw.

A couple of deep closers that drop out the back won\'t be compromised from any post but for the rest post positions are a big deal in my mind.

Gun to my head and I have to pick today it\'d be Frosted.
He\'s competitive on #\'s(going back to his Remsen at two),can sit behind the pace and stalkers in what should be a solid pace and is bred okay for the trip.

Sounds like he bounced out of the Wood with a good enough work the other day.
Issues could be kickback(I\'ve read he doesn\'t like it) and no work at CD to know how he\'d handle the strip.

[big18741]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Carpe Diem if and only if he trains well and gets
> no worse than a neutral draw. He takes dirt, he
> can tuck in and switch out to save ground, he\'s
> nimble, he tries hard even when things don\'t go
> his way, stays focused, listens to his jock, can
> reel off at least nine 12 and change 1/8ths, bred
> to get 1 1/4...
>
> Post parade may be more stressful on him than the
> race.

He hasn\'t totally lost it yet pre race where it hindered his performance but I did note the kidney sweat in the Blue Grass in 53 degree weather.Maybe that\'s just him but it seems like he might be one of the horses that could be toast before they run the race.

[SoCalMan2]

It seems to me that Firing Line would be an excellent choice to hit somewhere in the Super.  He is basically at least as good Dortmund, will be 3 to 4 times the price....much more likely to work out a decent trip....

[beazley]

International Star. Horse is handy for a closer with ability to shift gears quickly to stay out of trouble or get through a tight spot. Expect ground saving trip regardless of post and with pedigree and game fight I expect him to run through the wire.  One of the top front runners likely gets the trip and wins but race could fall apart behind winner and this one is logical to be in the mix for a piece.

[ajkreider]

I think several horses are close to equiprobable to hit the super, but to answer your question I\'ll go with Upstart.  He shows up every race, has the negative numbers at two and three.  Has run two grueling races over a ridiculously slow surface, and was still running (while a very talented Frosted said, \"I\'ve had quite enough of this!\"). Even when he loses, he\'s there (as in the Juvy).

Besides the crowd and tough opponents, the Derby test will make these the most tired they will probably ever be, and Upstart seems the least likely to want to lie down on track when they start reaching for the bottom.  The talented others . . . the jury is still out.  Dortmund a possible exception.

[Fairmount1]

So the answers are:  
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
Frosted
Upstart
Firing Line
International Star

The ones I\'m considering are on that list too.  I currently have it narrowed to 3 possible \"key\" horses (\"key\" being a single horse to use in all four spots) as works continue, post positions are drawn, TG info is released, etc.  

Curious to hear a critique of the following structure of a superfecta.  Key is likely not one of the top 4 wagering interests--more likely somewhere between 5th and 10th choice in the win pool.  1, 2, 3 are likely all top 3-4 betting interests although subject to change based on more information.  4-11 are most likely horses to finish 3rd of 4th in my opinion.  The actual horses are obviously still not set in stone.  

Key with 1, 2, 3, with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
1, 2, 3 with Key with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with key with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
1, 2, 3, with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 with key

$162 per $1 ticket.  $648 for all four $1 tickets.  As you can see I have a rough idea of which horses I\'m thinking but I\'m not inflexible on changing my structure as more info emerges.    

My question is where do you stop?  Not monetarily as that is a personal choice.  But rather with attempting to cover yourself on various outcomes involving your horses.  For instance, should you play a 5 horse box for another $120 tossing your key and using your next 2 best with the 3 horses used in first and second above?  Do you swap the 11 with the 7 in 3rd and 4th on an additional ticket with the key on top with a possibility of two of those seven running 3rd and 4th to have the super for an extra dollar?  Should you play the first ticket for a higher amount because it is your strongest opinion even though the amount of coverage is so small compared to the possibilities.  This is where I struggle making final decisions with supers no matter if I\'m playing dime supers on a 12 horse field at Kee or playing the Derby with 20 for a $1 minimum.  

I went back and read Mjellish\'s posts before and after the Big Brown Derby for some guidance.  His approach to that race while quite different b/c of his strong opinion of Big Brown sure makes you think.  He discussed strengthening his opinion for one of his secondary (my word) horses over another secondary horse and emphasizing half the field over the other half but using all of them in the bottom to a degree.  I\'m narrowing it to 11 or 12 in the last category for cost and opinion reasons.  

With all of that, just looking for constructive thoughts on how to improve, expand, or modify my structure here.

[Tavasco]

If I understand your strategy correctly, I would consider & contemplate (thank goodness we still have plenty of time)  - protecting against 1,2,3 being beaten for the win with ebx 4,5,6/4,5,6,7 and some sort of tri like 4,5,6 /1,2,3/ 1-10 or variation. Of course I would need to imagine 4,5,6 capable of a surprise being hopelessly subjective.

Just thinking out loud. FWIW. BTW how are you & Wilkes doing? DRF article was chilling but may have helped prices.  Good Luck!

[ajkreider]

There are lots of betting strategies, especially for the derby.  In your initial post you wanted to ignore the odds. But odds are a natural way to make tough choices, especially with potential payoffs on this race.

Also, I don\'t find any horse untossable.  I had Chrome on top of most of my tickets, but there were obviously situations where he doesn\'t win (that pay huge), and they\'re worth a shot. Besides finding the best horses for this race, I handicap like WAR Games.  What\'s the Hot Pace/Meltdown Scenario - The 1:15 6F Conundrum - The Flooded Track Fiasco - The Loisiana/Oaklwan Horses are Much Better than Everyone Thought Strategy, etc. Working through those is kinda fun, anyway.

[mjellish]

Hi Fairmount,

I would suggest that you first write down on paper your best thoughts on the race.  Later, when you are done laying out your bet, go back and look at your thoughts on the race and make sure your bet reflects those opinions.  For example, if you like Dortmund better than Materiality make sure you have more money on Dortmund.  Or if you think Materiality offers more value than Carpe Diem but give them equal chance to hit the board, make sure you have more money on Materiality.  Etc.

For structuring the bet, I would suggest putting your horses into groups.

K= Key Horse(s) = has to win or hit the board (depending upon how you are keying them) for you to cash.

A or A- = Strong use because they are best outside of your key horse(s) or offer a ton of value, possibly so much so that you may be structuring your bet so that one of these has to hit the board along with a key for you to cash.

B or B- = You like these horses a lot.  Feel they are likely to hit the board or are offering a ton of value if one of the A horses don\'t hit, but they don\'t make or break your ticket.

C or C- = Like best of the rest.

D = only use as Saver

F = Toss

And if you have the patience for it, don\'t be afraid to use an A+ or B+ marking for horses you think will offer more value (better odds) than the rest in that same group.  Make sure you have a little more money on the combos involving them.

You gain a big advantage over the crowd, in my opinion, if you are willing to punch out a complicated ticket.  It sometimes takes me 30 minutes to 45 minutes to get my KY Derby bet in.  If you have a teller, give them notice ahead of time and be prepared.  If not, get one and give them notice.  Bring an anal friend as a wing man that has a copy of your bets to stand next to you and check tickets as they come out.  This speeds up the process and takes it off your plate.  I bring 2 wingmen, one to check the tickets as they come out and another to tell all the people who keep walking up behind me that the window is closed or it will be awhile.  And go make your bet right after another race ends when the lines are likely to be smallest.  This is nothing but courtesy to your fellow players, but it is important.  

Having a wingman or two is a big deal IMO.  It really bothers me when someone gets behind me and begins to get frustrated as they wait and wait (often to bet less than $20) and assume I am taking so long because I don\'t know what I am doing.  And I don\'t want any distractions.  Had a guy one year that was so distracting I finally politely asked my teller to excuse me for a moment, turned around, flipped $20 on the ground and told the guy unless he was betting more than $10k to go buy a beer, pick another line or shut the *uck up.

Point is be prepared.  And don\'t forget to tip your teller.

[smalltimer]

Fairmount,
I think sort of dovetails into a little bit of mjellish explained in how he structures wagers.
I\'m using the last 15 superfectas in the Kentucky Derby to see if this helps anyone.  I\'ll start with 2014 and work down to 2000, and I\'m using the $ 1.00 superfecta payoff.

2014.  Favorite Chrome at 3/1 wins.  Super is 3-1,38-1,9-1,7-1 and pays
$ 7500.00.  There is a 9/1 that misses the super.  Pool is $ 11.5M

2013. Favorite is Orb at 5/1 wins.  Super is 5-1,35-1,6-1,9-1 and pays
$28,500.00.  There is a 9-1/10-1/8-1 that miss the super.  Pool is $ 11.2M

2012. Favorite Bode runs 2nd at 4/1.  IHA wins at 15-1,4-1,12-1,31-1 and pays
$ 48,000.00.  A 5-1/8-1 miss the super.  Pool is $ 10.9M

2011. Favorite Dialed In runs out at 5-1.  AK wins at 21-1,9-1,9-1,23-1 and pays $ 24,000.00.  A 5-1, 8-1, 10-1 miss the super.  Pool is $ 9.9M

2010. Favorite LaLucky runs out at 6-1. S. Saver wins at 8-1,12-1,12-1,30-1 and pays $101,000.00.  A 6-1, 10/1 miss the super.  Pool is $ 8.5M

2009. Favorite Friesen Fire runs out at 4-1.  MTB wins at 51-1,6-1,19-1,12-1 and pays $ 278.000.00  A 5-1, 4-1 miss the super.  Pool is $ 8.0M

2008. Favorite BBrown wins at 2-1.  BB wins at 2-1, 13-1,27-1,37-1 and pays
$ 29,000.00.  A 5-1, 6-1 miss the super.  Pool is $9.0M

2007. Co-Fav. *S. Sense wins at 5-1, 10-1, Curlin at 5-1, 29-1 and pays
$ 14,500.00.  A 7-1 misses the super.  Pool is $ 9.0M

2006. Favorite is SNSaint runs out at 5-1.  Barbaro wins at 6-1,30-1,8-1,DH with 24-1 and 7-1 and pays $ 44,000.00 and $ 30,000.00.  Pool is $ 8.7M

2005. Favorite B.Road runs out at 2.60-1. Gia wins at 50-1,72-1,5-1,29-1 and pays $ 864,000.00.  Bellamy road misses at 2.60-1, and (2) 7-1. Pool is $ 7.4M

2004. Fav. Smarty wins at 4-1, 2nd choice L.Heart at 5-1,11-1,42-1 and pays
$ 20,500.00.  An 8-1, 6-1 miss the super.  Pool is $ 5.3M

2003. Fav Em. Maker 2nd at 2.50-1. F. Cide wins at 13-1, 2.50-1,6-1,9-1 and pays $ $ 2,800.00.  A 7-1,6-1 miss the super.  Pool is $ 4.9M

2002. Fav. H. Holiday out at 6-1. War Emblem wins at 21-1,23-1,8-1,7-1 and pays
$ 91,500.00.  An 8-1,6-1,8-1,7-1 miss the super.  Pool is $ 4.0M

2001. Fav P. Given out at 1.80-1. Monarchos wins at 11-1,55-1,7-1,25-1 and pays
$ 63,000.00. An 8-1,10-1,8-1,7-1 miss the super.  Pool is $ 3.3M

2000. Fav Fu Peg wins at 2-1.  Fu Peg at 2-1,12-1,6-1,11-1 and pays $ 1,600.00
An 8-1,10-1,6-1,5-1, field entry 6-1 miss the super.  Pool is $ 2.6M

(**Absolutely no guarantees I didn\'t transpose a number or two.  If a mistake is made it is purely an oversight on my part.

6 of 15 Betting Favorites won.  2 Betting Favorites ran 2nd.  7 Betting Favorites failed to hit the super.  

Do with this what you like.  I think it says despite the difficulty in hitting the super its a play any handicapper has to take some shots at.  Looks like there will be $ 11-12M in that super pool, so I don\'t think anyone gets cheated if they hit it.

Good luck

[Bet Twice]

Interesting data.....surprised at how much the Super pays even with the favorite winning.  Also surprised at the relatively small payoff on the AK super, given his odds and the favorite running out of the money.