Mubtaahij to run without Lasix

[jp702006]

Wiseguy designation is usually the kiss of death.

[joemama]

yep, been burned enough times with that one.

[RICH]

and to slow to win, and no 2 point Lasix move up to consider, way to many faster

[mbeychok]

I wonder what De Kock\'s horses were running previous to them running in the US and what type of improvement - if any - we can expect. Did his previous 6 horses - all of whom ran in the $ - pair/top/OFF in their first US starts?

[pizzalove]

Has the trainer, who is supposedly in the money all six of his shippers over here, won anything of any significance.  Hope this one is the wise guy horse.

[smalltimer]

I don\'t have enough database to give a very good answer, but found some data that could be researched to see if horses ran tops or paired.
DeKock has had some runners.  Most of us older guys remember Horse Chestnut winner of 10 of 11 career and 6 straight World Cups.
He also trained Asiatic Boy who won the Summer Cup 6 times.
Victory Moon was another who ran in 2009 in the Stephen Foster and the Suburban and ran 2nd in each race.  In 2008 he was beaten in the Dubai World Cup by Curlin.
He had 3 turf outs at 10f.  AP on 8-13-11 with River Jetez with Soumillon up and ran 3rd of 11 head,
He ran 10-16-11 at Woodbine, 10f on the turf with Hahbooba and ran 6 of 11 with Spencer up, and then ran again at AP on 8-17-13 with The Apache who ran 2nd of 13 head.  
All 3 of those 10f turf horses went off at 7 1/2 to 1 or less.
Doesn\'t look like he ships unless he has a real runner.
Only one horse, that ran the 10f turf race ever ran with Lasix and he ran 3rd in that race at Arlington.
Since he\'s had some awful good ones, including those that can run on dirt, its funny he hasn\'t made a trip to the annual Kentucky Derby.

[Tavasco]

Yes, all over the world. We are talking about one of the top operations on the planet with these connections. Query the owner for an eye opening bio.

[pizzalove]

Smalltimer,

I am sold.  This guy is obviously got some skills and I will give this horse a harder look and may even make him my main play.  Thanx.

[joemama]

DeKock is suppose to be on the Steve Byk radio show this coming Tuesday. Maybe tune in to the show then or catch it in the archives.

[joemama]

Look who owns the horse. I would say you have to be a good trainer to work for that guy.

[smalltimer]

pizza,
Not my intention to sell or sway anyone on any horse in the race.  I was just trying to find some info on how DeKock\'s horses shipped to the states, if they used Lasix, if they ran on dirt, and how they ran.
I think too many unknowns with the horse, and I would play more dough on the horse if he were 20/1+, the morning line of about 10/1 is no value with this group of bears to run against.
You can look at some You Tube Videos of Asiatic Boy, Horse Chestnut, Victory Moon running in top flight company.  And he doesn\'t train \'em to not get the distance.
Its possible TGJB has data from the races I mentioned and can consider putting some sheets on the board for the guys to take a peek at.  
Not that its likely to happen in this year\'s Derby, but in watching all of DeKock\'s really good ones, they tend to lay near the front of the group, with Asiatic Boy the one who came from a little further off.
Mub may get blown way off the first flight, may be pushed along faster than normal to try to keep up, and may have nothing left for the stretch.  It\'s a crapshoot and at @ 10/1 with bunch, no bargain.
Good luck to all.

[joemama]

Maybe a way to look at 10 to 1 odds is that the horse is getting respect.  No doubt the trainer is good and he ships all over the world for a world class operation.  My only knock is not on the horse itself but how the foreigners have done in this race. But the horse has been here and is being given time to acclimate so....

[smalltimer]

joe,
10/1 is a sign of respect, but at the end of the day you look at Mub\'s sheet and you see 8-10 head faster, and a few a lot faster.
If they\'ll let him saunter along at 25.50 or a 26 second quarter, he\'s gonna come a running.  I don\'t think we\'ve seen that type of quarter in the Derby.
He trains without horse shoes, he doesn\'t have the diet that he\'s been successful consuming, he\'s shipped thousands of miles, the trainer doesn\'t use the potential benefit of Lasix, the pace will be way faster than he\'s accustomed to.  Lots of potential negatives for a 10/1 shot when there are so many \"proven\" performers.
Although, he did sit right off a 23.3 quarter when he was a 2 year old packing Derby weight, so who knows?

[joemama]

I\'d like to see more than 10 to 1.  I think in the last future pool he went from 30 to 8 to 1 for what that\'s worth. 10 to 1 seems short but I think he\'s 15 to 1 or so when it\'s all said and done. Time will tell on that one. It seems like he won his Dubai distance races fairly easily. You never know how he will respond when pushed harder , he may just hold up , maybe even thrive on some better competition.  One big known thing is that he can get the distance and most of the time half of them can\'t or don\'t in this race. Very interesting entry. Can\'t wait for the posts to be drawn, then go from there.

[HP]

I think he will not be the wiseguy horse and he will be more than 20-1, unless he puts in some lightning works.  In this field, with all the knocks, big players will be off him because of slower figs, can\'t win from Dubai, no lasix, etc.