Couple of Early Thoughts

[mjellish]

Takes more than talent to win the KY Derby.  More than any other race this one seems to make them fall apart.  It\'s a large 20 horse field that they will never see again, at a distance that is usually farther than anyone has ever raced, in front of a loud, drunken cheering crowd that is larger than they have ever seen or will ever see again.  So if they don\'t lay over the field they\'ve either got to get lucky and get the trip, or have the mind to hold it all together and make a trip.

As good as some of these are, I don\'t think anyone lays over this field.  American Pharoah was impressive yesterday, but we don\'t know how he is going to respond when someone looks him in the eye and runs with him after a mile, and then someone else is coming behind them.  And I don\'t think he has the top figure in this race anyway.  Can he be this brilliant at 1 1/4?

For what it\'s worth I almost look at the mile marker as being the half way point of this race.  I\'ve seen a lot of brilliant horses look great through the first mile of the KY Derby, but the next 1/8th really changes things.  You are probably not going to win 1 1/4 race by going balls out from gate to finish unless you lay over the field or catch a seriously biased race track.  Have to be able to shut down for part of the race and relax to get the distance.

On that note, it\'s interesting that this year we don\'t see many, if any, true need the lead types.  Everyone seems willing to rate to some degree.   But that could mean trouble.  If you get that many together with the same running style and the field doesn\'t string out you are probably looking at a few very wide trips.  So does anyone have the talent to go 4-5 wide on both turns and still win?  

I don\'t think so.  Not against this field.

And which of the top 5 or so colts have shown they can take dirt and overcome trouble?

Dortmund has that long stride and seems more athletic than most over sized colts, but I don\'t know how he responds if he gets stopped and has to get going again.  All that separated him and Firing Line in two races is two heads, and Firing Line will be much higher odds and have better spacing.

Carpe Diem is a very serious racehorse.  He must be smart as hell because he does not seem to get fazed by anything that goes on around him.  I\'ve seen him tuck in behind horses and save ground, switch out, set or track the pace, go wide...  Whatever he needs to do more or less.  He went very, very wide in the BC Juv on the 2nd turn and still had enough left to rally up for second.  Not many can do that.  The way he laid down methodical 12 and change 1/8ths in the Bluegrass and then kicked away from the field seems to be a good indicator that he will get the 1 1/4.  And I disagree strongly with the Beyer figure for that race.  I have this guy as being one of the fastest.  Will be curious to see JB\'s figure.

I think Upstart is cooked.  He has number power to run back to but he lays it all out, every time and he\'s had 3 tough races.  If he makes it to the race I say he bounces unless he shows me something really special in his training leading up to this.

Materiality could be any type.  He\'s definitely fast.  But I don\'t see how he could possibly have the mindset to hold it all together for this.  Curlin couldn\'t do it.  But in any other year Materiality would be 6-1 or less and be all the rage.  This year he will probably be twice those odds and almost seems forgotten.  So if you like him to win, can\'t blame you for betting it that way.

International star not getting any respect after sweeping FG prep races.  This guy is heavily raced and has all the experience you would want.  He didn\'t get much spacing between most of his races and they have shipped this little warrior from NY to Canada to California to Kentucky and then to Florida where he has trained and shipped in to FG for each of his races.  Interesting that when he finally got some time off and spacing between 2 and 3 he came back with his best fig ever.  He now comes into this with a nice forward looking line as a 3 year old and 5 weeks rest.  He\'s also proven that he can relax and run his race through trouble and that he will save ground and go through tight spaces.  Like very much how he still ran down the lone speed in LA Derby as those two drew off from the field.  If he saves enough ground and gets out to fire he may get a piece of this at nice odds.

Frosted could be any type.  Thinking the stable was all in for the Wood though and it may be tough for him to repeat that number.

The Dubai horse looked good beating that field but has never really won fast.  Some day a colt is going to ship across the Atlantic and win in Louisville.  But with this field being this good, is this the year to bet that Mubtaahij can do it?  Will really have to show me something in his training to get my money.  Who knows, maybe he will.  I\'m willing to forgive slow figures out of slow early pace races, to a point.

Danzig Moon interesting type on the improve.  Was not 100% for Tampa Derby and seems to be moving forward now.  Seems like he has a chance to hit the exotics if he gets a decent draw and/or trip.
   
Speaking of post position draw, it always matters of course.  But I\'m thinking this year it will really matter who winds up next to, inside and outside of who.  They might have talent, but I don\'t know that a lot of them can change their style at this point.  Anyone\'s guess who the pace setter turns out to be and how fast it is IMO.

Let\'s just hope for a dry, fair track.

[jbelfior]

MJ:
I have a nice ticket on Carpe Diem at 10-1. Thought I was getting the reward for the risk at that number but now thinking he may be that high anyway.

Interesting that you didn\'t mention Its a Knockout. Pletcher has run second before with a few that had poor prior race but with some decent numbers before. Wouldn\'t shock me if a son of Lemon Drop Kid with some ok early pace just plods along late and picks up a minor share.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[mjellish]

Seems more like a Belmont type to me.

[johnnym]

Itsaknockout is the Pletcher horse I like the most to finish in the $$..

[joemama]

The interesting this about this horse was that he skipped the breeders cup juveniles last year.  Maybe they were pointing all along to this year.

[ajkreider]

International Star will be a price, and should be.  Reminds me a lot of Far Right.  Lays off the pace, saves nice ground, and comes running.  Looks great against a whole lotta nobodies. And we saw what happens when the horse on the lead has a bit of talent.  IS all out to beat a lightly-raced shipper, Far Right looks great in the rear view mirror.  And there will be several talented horses in front of those two turning for home.

Upstart\'s physical appearance will be telling.  I would have thought that if a big bounce was coming we\'d have seen it already, as the Holy Bull was three races ago.  Fever doesn\'t help but the extra week does.  I was even thinking Violette only puts two works in him, and it looks like it might be that now anyway.

The Welsch/Covello/mjellish backstretch report takes on even greater importance this year.

[joemama]

It\'s ashamed that were not going to get 6 to 1 on American Pharoah.  Like we got on Barbaro.

[johnnym]

Yes that was a gift..

[ajkreider]

If the offshore odds boston put up are at all indicative, Materiality will absolutely get some of my money at 16-1.

[jack72906]

Mj,

Thanks for the great analysis. I agree with your thoughts on Carpe Diem but I have a tough time playing Pletcher horses on Derby Day. I guess we\'ll have to see how they are running in the races leading up to the Derby.

The next three weeks should be a lot of fun

[boston]

Has anyone seen the head-on of the Florida Derby?  Do you have a link?

I have watched the race 10 to 20 times from the pan shot.  Wow - these horses are spent after the wire, but they do have 6 weeks to recover.

[toppled]

I\'m locked in on AP at 8/1.  I couldn\'t bet him in the 1st 2 Derby Future pools due to the uncertainty of his comeback from the injury, but once he started working out like a monster I got into pool 3 before his 1st race of 2015.  At the time I though the final odds of 8/1 were a little light, since he was 10/1 when I bet him, but now I\'m pretty happy with 8/1.

[Topcat]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> International Star will be a price, and should be.
>  Reminds me a lot of Far Right.  Lays off the
> pace, saves nice ground, and comes running.  Looks
> great against a whole lotta nobodies. And we saw
> what happens when the horse on the lead has a bit
> of talent.  IS all out to beat a lightly-raced
> shipper, Far Right looks great in the rear view
> mirror.  And there will be several talented horses
> in front of those two turning for home.
>
> Upstart\'s physical appearance will be telling.  I
> would have thought that if a big bounce was coming
> we\'d have seen it already, as the Holy Bull was
> three races ago.  Fever doesn\'t help but the extra
> week does.  I was even thinking Violette only puts
> two works in him, and it looks like it might be
> that now anyway.
>
> The Welsch/Covello/mjellish backstretch report
> takes on even greater importance this year.


Friendly with the breeders.  Hope he runs huge.

[mjellish]

In general I agree about the Off Pletcher angle.  But this colt is being handled differently.  And from what I have been told he was one of the most impressive colts on the backside during the AM all winter.  Just wish they would put him at Churchill now rather than later.  I do think working out over that surface makes a difference.  

I\'m not committing to betting him or any other yet.  Have to see who makes the race and how they train.  And I\'m very much looking forward to the early TG sheets.

Another curious thing to me.  Go back and look at the last 20 derby winners and see how many of them wore blinkers.

[Tavasco]

I love your analysis and would add. We have the deep closer group, to include, at least, Danzig Moon, Far Right, International Star, Mubtaahij (maybe), each of these is slower on the #\'s yet have generous prices. I would be more confident in a strung out field but still want to believe one of the group will get a trip without being stopped or losing ground and get into the bottom of the tri or super.

But this could be a race like no other we have a field that seems special and as you say they will get very contentious at a mile maybe a little earlier. There may be a shortage of horses backing up in the stretch.

The one scenario I just can\'t imagine (yet) is the pacesetter persevering to win. So I agree it will come down to ground loss or a super horse/effort.