thoughts on castledale and FL?

[Michael D.]

CtC, photo, pg , others ?? seems like these are the two wildcard horses, and nobody is talking about them. i just went through their pedigrees again, and i can\'t find any faults. a lot of speed now pointing for the big one. i originally thought castle was a turf horse, and FL needed another year or so to mature, but with some of the top closer types looking like they won\'t get in, i think it\'s time to revisit these two horses.

[Michael D.]

also..... these two seem interesting to me because they have the look of horses that might be factors in the belmont and travers as well.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The results of the preps kind of indicate its hard to dismiss any of these horses don\'t you think? Especially those that won Grade I\'s as three year old prepping. I think Castledale and Friend\'s Lake have to be respected. Post position is going to be a factor for me. I\'ll weight it in considering horses that I\'m afraid of.

That said, it's starting to look like Value Plus might have been carried a little farther by the Hallandale Strip than he would have otherwise. (I\'m not even certain of that but the results of the Fla. Derby and Wood can be interpreted that way.) Just because horses like The Cliff\'s Edge and Tapit came out of the Fla. Derby, that does not mean it was a phenomenal race. (Caveat: it doesn't\' mean it wasn\'t either) But if the strip did favor speed, Cliff was going to have a hard time of it and Tapit was first back. That said, Friends Lake closed.

Castledale didn\'t have to face Lionheart in the Santa Anita Derby and that may be a factor. A lot depends upon how much you think Lionheart improved or didn\'t improve in the Bluegrass. Imperialism was right there with Lionheart at mile in the San Rafael and he was right there with Castledale at 9 marks in the Santa Anita Derby. I\'ve read that Mike Watchmaker of DRF doesn\'t think the trouble cost Imperialism a placing. I\'m not nearly as certain of that. Imperialism does not have a quick burst and if his stride gets interrupted I don\'t think he\'s going to show his best and that interruption certainly occurred. Watch the race at Kentuckyderby.com and judge for yourself.

The Derby is a dilly. I think a case can be made for a lot of horses right now.

I still see Baffert attired in a white suit following his snorting greys, chomping at their bits, into the coliseum while struggling to restrain them with their golden leads. Waving to the unruly crowd, his grey coiffure whipped by the wind and bellowing over the din at the top of his lungs...

\"Ladies and Gentlemen...and in this corner....the undisputed heavyweight champion trainer of Kentucky Thoroughbreds, Bob Baffert presents to you ...Wimbledon and Preachinatthebar....LETS GET READY TO RUMBLE!!!!!!\"



Post Edited (04-18-04 21:08)

[Photofnish]

Castledale: Small horse conditioned -- or shall we say \"treated\" -- by pharmacist extraordinaire Jeff Mullins. Excellent breeding for the Derby distance and nice 2-year-old foundation. Problem is, he\'s only had two races at age three; Sunny\'s Halo was the last to win the Derby with only two preps at age three, and he had something like eleven starts at two, giving him plenty of bottom. Castledale ran hard in the SA Derby and apparently didn\'t come out of the race too well. Whether Mullins can get the weight back on him and the energy back into him remains to be seen. I say all of this as a person who has a 125/1 future ticket riding on him.

Friends Lake: Only two starts at age three and a 7-week layoff prior to the Derby. I believe fit horses -- not fresh horses -- win the Derby and thus hate this training pattern. Even though he\'s beautifully bred for the distance, I can\'t see him having the stamina to win off the bench. The Derby isn\'t just another horse race -- it\'s the single most grueling horse race in America. What\'s more, FL is a bit of a nervous headcase from what I\'ve read, so he might be frothed and finished by the time he reaches the starting gate at Churchill. Not for me.

Just my take.



Post Edited (04-19-04 11:12)

[STB]

Just wondering...anyone know where can I get past Derby charts to look for info on horses who came into the Derby off layoffs of at least six weeks? Between now and Derby Day we\'ll hear or read, approximately 567 times, that no horse since Needles in 1956 has won off a six-week or longer vaca. I\'m not sayin\' I like Friends Lake and/or Read The Footnotes, and I\'m not sayin\' I don\'t...and I know that given the grueling nature of the race, it seems likely that a battle-tested horse would have an advantage. But before I toss the fresh ones due to some long-standing and oft-quoted trend, I\'d at least like to look at the records of horses who\'ve tried to pull this off. Has it been so few horses that the stat is an anomaly? Were the layoff horses hopeless to begin with? With the way horses are being trained these days, I\'d almost think it\'s only a matter of time before we see a horse win the Derby off the lay.
Or maybe not. But I\'d rather did a little deeper before making that call. Didn\'t see anywhere on drf or brisnet to get charts...any suggestions? Thanks.



Post Edited (04-19-04 01:20)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I can\'t think of another horse I\'ve handicapped that came into the Derby on such a long rest. The Dubai runners have come close I believe. I can\'t remember their names right now. Bailey was up on one that led for a mile and then backed out. That one was purchased from the Mabees is what I recall. Still, I don\'t think that horse lost on sparse racing. I think he lost on pedigree or stamina.

I think with this stat the reliance is upon how most Derby winners come into the race. Its alot like that retrospective study they did to first determine what Dosage won the Derby. Its hard to look at these things in hindsight. Its been done before by Needles, it will be done again. Its gonna take the right kind of horse is all. Maybe a web search \"needles + kentucky derby\" will answer some of your questions. I don\'t know.

Someone mentioned the concerns. Friends Lake is a nut bag and Read the Footnotes has not performed well this year at 9 marks. That doesn\'t mean Friends Lake won\'t be calm or that RTF can\'t get 10. I really liked RTF, I realized all along I was pushing the breeding envelope and that envelope to my mind is further pushed by the time off. However, how did he handle his last freshening? But if I was confident RTF or Friends Lake was the best horse, I don\'t think I\'d let the layoff bother me.

Theres still alot of time between now and the Derby. We don\'t know the field. We don\'t know the post positions. We don\'t know how fast TCE or Lionheart really ran yet. We don\'t know what the track conditions are going to be like. Its gonna take some time, for me at least,to hash this out. Come Oaks day, I think we\'ll all have a better idea.

CtC