Does anyone really beat this game?

[dannyboy135]

Noticed and have enjoyed the banter regarding figure making and there inaccuracies. I\'ve owned and bred horses for many years and have been handicapping an equal number of years and while I\'ve had some nice strikes I know my overall performance leaves me under water.
I\'m certainly not sophisticated enough to determine which product produces the more accurate numbers.  Seems to me my personal results have been about the same with each, but certainly enjoy the additional information provided by thorograph and ease of downloading to my kindle.
what I have found to be most advantageous is to review race replays in concert with the sheet numbers unfortunately time doesn\'t usually allow.
I\'d be curious to know how the professionals have performed ( ie rate of annual return) and how they approach handicapping a card. time spent reviewing the daily racing form, sheets, charts, race replays etc.

[Tavasco]

Danny,

Could be, due to the lack of a crowd trying to answer your excellent question, that if you want to make money getting a job or a business is a better choice. However, If being right, solving puzzles and kibbitzing is a thrill, as I\'m sure you know, handicapping horses is forefront!

Stands to reason (for me) the winners don\'t have a lot to say.

[joemama]

Well the subject question isn\'t getting many responses for the obvious reason...

[touchgold]

you can beat a race....hard to beat the races

[Tavasco]

Quiet Michel Beychock may still be ahead. You know simple really!

[moosepalm]

In honor of April 15th arriving a week from tomorrow, I must candidly admit that I break even every year.

[bellsbendboy]

I fully admit, nowadays I bet as a hobby, yet I have a tremendous education in the sport and do not bet without a pretty fair amount of homework. Perhaps ninety percent of my action is on the late pick four, in Southern California , on Sundays.

My last 10 years, according to Twin Spires, my $1ROI since 2006 has been:

+1.77,  +1.43, -.30, +2.95, .03, .68, -.53, -.41,  1.41, and 2015 YTD 1.22

Really thought it was better than the numbers show and do pay tax on my winnings, occasionally per force!  bbb

[dannyboy135]

Bell,
     Appreciate your candid reply. I handicap as a hobby as well and readily admit that I often allow patient discretion to give way to action. Simply put I bet too many races without having a strong opinion
      I have been a sheet user for many years and have made a study of patterns, condition moves, timing, etc. I always review the race of the week and always look at the sheets and form my own opinions before i read tgjb\'s analysis.  More often than not I agree with his read but we seldom cash. Please don\'t mistake me I so enjoy and appreciate the race of the week but it seldom hits.
       In short, I think it takes more than a racing form and thorograph sheets to find consistent winners

[Thedudeabides]

Despite thirty plus years at the track, I have never met someone who bets on races for their main income -- the ones I\'ve met who I am confident won money over a long period of time have always had some other source of income (either in the horse racing industry or have another career)...and I am talking a very few number of people.   Anyway, here are my returns over the last five years taken from my account (bet, return, net, percent, rebate, percent, total return, percent):

2014/5:  108,391.40  109,048.55 657.15 0.61% rebate 6,701.58 6.18% 7,358.73 6.79%
 
2013/4:  68,391.55  71,776.21 3,384.66 4.95% rebate 3,164.71 4.63%  6,549.37 9.58%
 
2012/3: 52,076.10 51,498.48 (577.62)-1.11% rebate 3,829.20 7.35 3,251.58 6.24%
 
2011/2:  87,957.00 98,620.08 10,663.08 12.12% rebate 6,242.55 7.10% 16,905.63  19.22%
 
2010/11:  73,711.80  78,426.37  4,714.57  6.40%  rebate 6,340.59  8.60%  11,055.16  15.00%
 
totals:  $390,527.85 bet, $409,369.69 won before rebate, +$18,841.84, +4.82%

Rebates:  $26,278.63 (6.73%)


Totals -- bet, $390,527.85, rebates and won, $435,648.32, +11.55%

[smithkent]

Those are some great numbers you posted, thanks

It shows how difficult this game is! You have done really well, though the rebates make it possible to have a gain overall, even if you don\'t show a positive number at the end of the year

I\'m not a big  player, so no rebate help.  I just enjoy gambling on a horse race better than casino games

One other factor-taxes.  The way winnings are taxed makes it very difficult to end up ahead, even if you show good results.  The times I have had a juicy win come back to bite me at tax time.

A question- do you have to pay taxes on the rebates you receive?

[Thedudeabides]

As far as I know, rebates themselves are not taxable and no 1099\'s are issued, but of course any winnings (including rebates) above your bet totals are taxable.

[Bet Twice]

What say you JB/Miff - are there people out there making a decent living (6 figures annually) betting the horses?  Talking traditional handicappers not robo betting outfits and the like.

[miff]

Bet,

Unless you are making big scores, like a pick six, it is extremely difficult to make a profit each year without being a rebater betting millions with a software program.

Prior to Tricky being barred, a member of his entourage was taking down serious money each year just betting to win on certain horses of Tricky.

I know Little Henry (TAP camp) does well.Never worked a day in 20 years and follows the game on the east coast all year. Strictly a win bettor also, highly disciplined.

Personally had some years of beating game AND getting beat.The years I won, it was always anchored by a score on pick 6 or pick 4/5\'s, if not for that would be way behind.Never bet win, pure exotics.Dont play as much $ as 10 years ago mainly for financial reasons but also due to the sharp decrease in \"Dead Money\" in the pools on regular race days.Far tougher to beat the game now as a traditional player imo.You think you are smart in a spot and when the board opens \"everyone\" is on the horse.

Mike

[rezlegal]

I find this string intriguing because Tavasco\'s post was the only one that discussed the pure joy of handicapping and the socialization involved. I have loved hndicapping since the week before my 19th birthday and did not know the horses had to around the Yonkers Raceway oval twice. This will be my 43 rd straight year visiting Saratoga. If everyone on this Board was asked the following question: \" Name the 10 best days of your life marriage( divorce😜)or birth of children excluded, I would wager a large sum that most of us would name major sporting events including great moments at the racetrack. For just about everyone on thisBoard,this is a recreational endeavor, with the ongoing challenge of getting better and better. We all bring different philosophies to the track,i.e., for me finding the improbable bomb trumps betting a logical 7/2 shot and we keep score. Of my years at Saratoga 20 plus of those years were with dear friends and memories that sustain me. For most of us, that\'s what keeps us coming back for more.

[Old Mr. Boston]

Rez, I could not not have said it better. For me it\'s all about about the challange of handicapping and time spent with friend. Besides,if I happen to make a few bucks, well, the wife\'s probably gonna confiscate them anyway!...Ken