Road Trip

[pizzalove]

Ok.  I am coming off a solid road trip with two days out east and a solid week and a half in Kentucky.  Back home in Wisconsin today and I am actually leaving (by car) to Keeneland (again) and will be there and Churchill (a little bit) all next week.  Some observations:

I am crushed with the injury to Dubai Sky.  I was so sold on him as a solid derby horse.  Loved everything about him. (Stride, Look, attitude, etc....) Loved him. I was salivating over him being off 6 weeks or 7 before the derby and thinking of the odds I would get.  Reminded me of Event of the Year.  I so hate it when my top choice gets injured.  Also happened to me recently with Black Onyx.  Ended up getting my butt kicked on Derby day.

I am not very impressed with Carpe Diem.  Does not look like a derby horse to me.  See no Giants Causeway characteristics at all.  He is a fit lean horse. If he were human he would have the look of a long distance runner.  But humans don\'t carry 126 on their backs in the Derby.  Strength and power is important. Did not see a strong gallup out and I thought he looked spent. I think this horse needs that perfect trip free of traffic on derby day especially since he is not built to knock other horses around.
Looks wise I would of picked Ocho Ocho Ocho in the blue grass.  Outside longshot who may not of liked the inside in the Blue Grass.  Not sure of the breeding on the dam side but this horse does clearly have the same size of his daddy.  Not sure what to think of Danzig Moon.  Doubt his best gets him into the exotics.  Also a nice looking colt but his stride doesn\'t seem too special.  I also felt the keeneland track was true to its old form as the day went on.  needed to be near the lead to win. I am sorry if you disagree but I miss the wild results of the old poly surface.  Danzig was a logical second choice with some deep closers in the race.  Had the exacta but pay was crap.

Also will go out on a limb here and say that Dortmund has no chance of winning the Derby.  Now I have never seen Dortmund in person but I did think he was a point given colt the first time I saw him on the TV.  His santa anita fractions did not impress me at all.  He may have the lead most of the race but will get nailed in the stretch if he doesn\'t collapse altogether.  I am soooo panicked that Pharoah or Dortmund are going to go out winging 22 and change.  Then slow the pace way down.  Second fraction 47 and change.  and those two along with carpe diem(don\'t like him but lets face it this race may set up perfectly for him again) will fight it out in the stretch and you will see a horrible payout.  It sucks that Baffert is going to control the pace here.  I just hope a couple of horses get out there to challenge all the way around.

I have no idea who to pick at this point.  I am going to really need the Thorograph Derby selections more than ever.  still cant wait for derby day.


If any of you are at Keeneland this week I will be wearing the Packers leather jacket and sitting up stairs by the finish line.  I then come out to section D to watch the races.  I will be there 4 days in a row and sometimes early to watch workouts.

Pat