Pletcher trouble again

[pizzalove]

I wanted to ask is it safe to assume that Pletcher and possibly a few others will have problems with the stricter Kentucky derby testing?  Or is this a wait for the webinar topic?

[Fairmount1]

This is completely inappropriate.  I feel like you are accusing Pletcher of something here.

Here is the real reason as he explained it himself recently and it should suffice all of his critics.    
_______________________________

"It's a hard race to win," Pletcher added. "I think a lot of it has to do with Churchill's surface. There are just a lot of horses that don't like it. We've had a lot of horses that won't perform over that track for whatever reason. Our win with Super Saver was probably a situation where he was in a perfect place at the right time — caught a sloppy track — so sometimes it works your way."

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/features/todd-pletcher-is-funny-no-really-706
______________________________

Luckily, his horses really seem to \"like\" the Gulfstream Park surface.

[Bet Twice]

I get the fact that Pletcher\'s record at the Derby opens him up to speculation on why that would be, with the easy answer being that it\'s the increased testing/scrutiny.  Has anyone looked at a larger sample to include all big races that include increased testing to see if that holds true?

[touchgold]

im pretty sure pletcher is pretty bad at breeders cups also.....nowhere near 25-30% like he is at gulfstream.

[Michael D.]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This is completely inappropriate.  I feel like you
> are accusing Pletcher of something here.
>
> Here is the real reason as he explained it himself
> recently and it should suffice all of his critics.
>    
> _______________________________
>
> "It's a hard race to win," Pletcher added. "I
> think a lot of it has to do with Churchill's
> surface. There are just a lot of horses that don't
> like it. We've had a lot of horses that won't
> perform over that track for whatever reason. Our
> win with Super Saver was probably a situation
> where he was in a perfect place at the right time
> — caught a sloppy track — so sometimes it works
> your way."
>
> http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/features/to
> dd-pletcher-is-funny-no-really-706
> ______________________________
>
> Luckily, his horses really seem to \"like\" the
> Gulfstream Park surface.


Super Saver actually liked the fast CD surface more than the sloppy one. He ran a 2.25 going two turns at age 2 (dry), and a 1.25 in the Derby (wet). Maria\'s Mons improve 4 points from 2 to 3.

if I remember correctly, some of the studies people have done here show that Pletcher\'s horses run ok in the Derby. as he says, it\'s a tough race to win.

[Fairmount1]

Combined Derby and BC, 8 for 148 (5.41%)

Kentucky Derby, 1 for 40 (2.5%)
Super Saver, 2010

Breeders' Cup, 7 for 108 (6.48%)
Ashado, 2004
Speightstown, 2004
English Channel, 2007
More Than Real, 2010
Pluck, 2010
Uncle Mo, 2010
Shanghai Bobby, 2012

[mjellish]

And don\'t forget, Pletcher usually ships his derby starters in to Louisville a few days before the race.  But with Super Saver he sent him there early to train and acclimate.  I think he learned something from that because as I recall, last year, he made mention of the fact that shipping in early to train over the Churchill surface makes a difference.

[johnnym]

Best betting angle in all of sports.
Toss all Pletchers horses for the win in the Derby.
Toss the 1 hole as well.

[miff]

Pizza,I\'ll bite. Precisely what \"trouble\" do you think TAP and a few others(who are they?)will have with the stricter Kentucky Derby testing, which, incidentally,isn\'t stricter at all.The 72 hr pre race scrutiny is what\'s added.Some venues use OOCT for big races trying to catch something illegal being used in between starts.All of this very well known to the participants.

This is far funnier than you can imagine because if someone is using an undetectable illegal drug,the testing is largely irrelevant.

[ajkreider]

His horses seem to like all tracks, in late March and early April.

[Flighted Iron]

Fairmount,

 An impartial look at trainer\'s stats for the BC

Trainers < 10% win:

Whittingham
Frankel
Zito
Mclaughlin
Van Berg
Schulhofer
Cecil
O\'Brien
Fabre
Attfield
 
many more hovering close to 10%


Notables with 0% win

Stephens
Jerkens
Jones(gary)
Hannon
Delp
Sadler
Clement
Mitchell
Barrera
Head(christiane)

[TGJB]

I\'m pretty sure we\'ve covered the top trainers in terms of tops/pairs/etc. in past Derby and BC seminars.

[Flighted Iron]

the post wasn\'t about form cycles. more to the point of having good fortune on
one\'s side versus HOF ability.

[joemama]

Nice leg work.  I didn\'t think anyone had a very high win percentage.

[miff]

They\'re all great horsemen when they have freaks in their barn.