By the way...

[TGJB]

As a guy who passed the Fla Derby-- how do they not even look at the bump in the stretch?

[P-Dub]

Thought the same thing. Watched on TVG, went back to my online feed and they had it official already.

[Boscar Obarra]

Shell shock from all the heat they\'ve taken?

[Tavasco]

Could be it reflects the popularity of the owner, but two wrongs don\'t make it right. Upstart certainly finds traffic and trouble where one would expect there to be none. What is going to happen in a 24 horse field?

[miff]

Apparently they did look, did not see sufficient cause to post a stewards inquiry, and made it official before a jockey claim was made.....hmmm rare.

The outcome was not affected by the herding, Materiality took Upstarts best shot before the incident and shook him off. Upstart no Smarty, imo,very average finish last 70 yards predictive of him maybe not wanting 10f.Thought he should have head bobbed Materiality to the wire, may not want to be as close up as he was yesterday. That\'s the second tough grueling race he\'s run over a tiring surface which may set him back.

Materiality, unraced at 2, faces the curse of Apollo AND the curse of Rags where he is slow. His first race figure was equal to a TG 9 and a Beyer of 76,that\'s only off by about 5+ lengths, not bad for $35 potatoes!

Not surprising, off raw times yesterday, that Materiality got a 110 Beyer (neg TG -2.25) and Upstart 108 (neg TG 1.25)

[ajkreider]

Seems a consensus that the rail was dead. Upstart pushed Mat down there and that other still won.  Huge effort.

[toppled]

Ortiz tried to claim foul but they told him he was too late: http://www.drf.com/news/materiality-wins-florida-derby-stay-unbeaten

Ortiz said after the race that he attempted to claim foul against the winner for the incident that occurred at midstretch, but by the time he got to the phone to talk with the stewards, the race had already been declared official.

According to Gulfstream Park president Tim Ritvo and vice president/general manager P.J. Campo, Ortiz waited to notify the outrider of his intentions until on his way back to be unsaddled. By that time, they said the outrider had already given the stewards the "all clear" call.

Ritvo said the stewards informed him that they had already looked at the break and the run through the stretch and declared the race official.

[TGJB]

Mike-- You might want to think about how that race would look visually if Materiality wasn\'t in it.

Yes, Rag ((Jake) figures have gone completely off the rails, and you\'re not the only one who noticed. We just picked up an outfit that has been using their stuff 20 years.

[FrankD.]

Mike,

I have to agree with you about Upstart, that lemon has been squeezed a lot; however if your TG # is accurate many will look at it as a circle back to his top 1st Saturday in May. Materiality in typical Pletcher Derby Prep form running his race yesterday and this one will be retired before the Spa opens.

Florida preps a very difficult read # wise this year with high winds and extremely slow surfaces on both Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby days.

In the spirit of Jimbo who has been MIA for quite awhile \" Nothing coming out of Louisiana will be a Derby factor\" I believe is accurate this year. International Star just too slow TG wise even with a forward move yesterday after pairs.

American Pharaoh will have to be a freak to make noise with 2 easy preps
(providing he jogs again on 4/11) only 3 weeks spacing into the Derby.

I don\'t see anything serious coming out of the Wood,shipping from the desert or Sunland. The Animal Kingdom fans will support Dubai Sky who was not even TC nominated?

So that leaves us with the Santa Anita Derby and Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass IMHO as the major players for the top spot.

Dortmund has done nothing wrong and Prospect Park seems to be learning what\'s its all about and will love the extra furlong. Desormeaux said to really like this horse and Sise in an interview 2 weeks before it was announced that Texas Red would not make the Derby said that \" Kent was committed to his horse through the Derby.\"

Carpe Diem will be the wild card and possibly the value if both Baffert horses come through their final preps easily. I\'m guessing Walden/WinStar are calling the shots here over the trainer? Interesting horse who ran fast early, was backed off and seems to be heading to the Twin Spires via the path of a peaking on Derby Day if all goes well.

Let the Derby drum beat begin and wake up this hibernating board. It\'s Spring can\'t you tell, we had a dusting of snow and I had to scrape ice off my windshield before going out this morning!

Frank D.

[miff]

JB,

Get your point BUT Materiality was in there and Upstart took his best shot and was dismissed in a protracted dog fight. Now add:

1.Upstart lays his body down every race and comes out tired. How many gut wrenchers can he sustain? ...had 3 in a row.

2.American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, Far From Over, Firing Line all with upside, Dortmund,a fraud imo, nonetheless a contender on figs and a couple others.

...can\'t get to Upstart winning the derby with the above in mind, aware of his lofty figs.


Meanwhile, Rags sez Materiality ran like TG 9 first out and TG 1.5 second out,AND lifetime top for Upstart is a TG 1.5  


Mike

[miff]

Hi Frank,

Kinda agree,GP just not the usual glib surface and wonder if that will gut or give bottom to Upstart/Materiality.

Would say that American Pharoah impresses me far more than Dortmund.Not sure what AP will meet in Ark  but he could get to the derby as a fresher horse than many contenders that have had tougher races.If he gets hooked and runs away in Ark,think he\'ll be the top contender.Observers in Cali call him freaky.

Few slow pretenders,agree. Wood,SA Derby,Ark Derby looking key to derby.

Good luck, swing hard!

Mike

[FrankD.]

Mike,

The only thing in Arkansas that could possibly hook American Pharoah is one of Bill Clinton\'s old flames! Didn\'t they all have horse teeth?

Frank D.

[mjellish]

To my eye I didn\'t see anything run in FL yesterday that looked like a serious KY Derby contender.  These colts would really have to show me something in their training leading up to the big one to be considered.

Agree about Upstart.  He\'s been wound tight since January and he lays it down every time.  I don\'t see how he could put forth a top effort again, and I don\'t think he wants to go 1 1/4 anyway.  

I also don\'t think the FL Derby winner has enough seasoning to handle the grueling trip he\'s likely to see in a 20 horse field and deliver a top effort, especially since it\'s a Florida based Pletcher horse.  Not saying he can\'t, but I wouldn\'t bet him to.  He was absolutely gassed with an empty tank at the end of that race.

Will concede the Gulfstream strip has been quirky past week and was again yesterday.  So I reserve the right to change my opinion if one or more of these comes back to really impress in the AM in Louisville.  But for now I am out.

[SoCalMan2]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To my eye I didn\'t see anything run in FL
> yesterday that looked like a serious KY Derby
> contender.  These colts would really have to show
> me something in their training leading up to the
> big one to be considered.
>
> Agree about Upstart.  He\'s been wound tight since
> January and he lays it down every time.  I don\'t
> see how he could put forth a top effort again, and
> I don\'t think he wants to go 1 1/4 anyway.  
>
> I also don\'t think the FL Derby winner has enough
> seasoning to handle the grueling trip he\'s likely
> to see in a 20 horse field and deliver a top
> effort, especially since it\'s a Florida based
> Pletcher horse.  Not saying he can\'t, but I
> wouldn\'t bet him to.  He was absolutely gassed
> with an empty tank at the end of that race.
>
> Will concede the Gulfstream strip has been quirky
> past week and was again yesterday.  So I reserve
> the right to change my opinion if one or more of
> these comes back to really impress in the AM in
> Louisville.  But for now I am out.

Have to agree with all said here about Upstart.  Stick a fork in him.  One commenter stated that a person could look at his likely pattern as circling back to a top.  However, I would think that if he was an older more developed horse.  Rather, I see a young 3yo trying to get back to a top and not getting there.  Even if Upstart\'s pattern does end up having him getting back to his top or a new top, I would also say that this is a horse who has already shown that he reacts and I would forecast a reaction.  Additionally, Upstart is a horse who seems to prefer running on the outside....he is always 3w3w or worse.....all things considered, I see Upstart as a bet against.....even the best possible read on him is that he runs a good figure but ends up squandering it as usual going wide both turns. I think his campaign was very poorly mapped out.

AS to Materiality, he is a very lightly raced horse who has improved every race....it is very hard to know when to give a young lightly raced horse its first reaction.  When I started sheet reading more than 25 years ago, the old timers use to always say never give a horse a bounce until it gives you one first.  While nothing works 100%.....you usually get more surprises in your favor operating this way than surprises in your favor the other ways.

I must say it is a tribute to how strong and deep this crop is that betting against Upstart is not likely to provide too much edge.  There are so many good strong candidates that he may end up being long anyway.  I prefer to look for edges betting against horses taking money.  However, a horse with his sheet would be taking huge amounts of money in almost any other year.

Am leaning to think this Derby may be a head scratcher better savored by watching than betting.  I know that is heresy...but am thinking that is the way it looks.  I do not remember a three year old crop this strong ever....only 3 year old crops I have seen that could rival this are ....\'87 (born in \'84 -- Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch, Cryptoclearance....to name a few) and \'78 (born in \'75 -- Affirmed and Alydar but there were other good ones that year....Quadratic, Star De Naskra, Nasty and Bold, Believe It, Darby Creek Road, Sauce Boat, Tilt Up).....I did not use the sheets in the 70s, so I cannot say how that crop was on the sheets.  Also, for \'73, I have a sense that could have been a good crop, but my handicapping was very primitive at that point (too primitive to make any real judgments).

[mjellish]

Agree SoCalMan.  As I recall the 2007 Crop was pretty good too...

...Street Sense, Curlin, Circular Quay, Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, No Biz Like Shobiz, Any Given Saturday...

But I don\'t think I have ever seen this many 3 year olds run this fast in one year by April before.  As usual, it\'s going to come down to who peaks that day and either works out a trip or gets lucky enough to get one so they can deliver at the wire.  To my eye Upstart is a very nice, hard trying sort of colt.  But not a KY Derby winner.

Should be fun, a good race to bet and rewarding if it can be sorted out.
 
Still lots of time.  I\'m looking forward to seeing Carpe Diem and Far From Over run again.