Only one Derby horse

[ajkreider]

ran yesterday, IMHO.  El Kabeir looks the real deal.  Didn\'t have things all his way, amd still blew away the field without laying it all down.  Time looks to be okay.  The only other race was a 12k claimer group, but they were 2+ seconds slower, and there looked to be some decent horses in there.  And that winner was a point lighter.

The only 2 worth mentioning at GP ware the top two in the Spectaular Bid, and they won\'t go past a mile.  Very impressed with Barbados, finishing well into a strong breeze.

Can\'t say much for the MMM winner.  Did not finish well at all.  Maybe got too hot, as he was sweating a ton in the paddock.  I suppose the runner up still has room to improve after only two races, but a .26 and change final 1/4, even into a good breeze doesn\'t say greatness.

[richiebee]

El Kabeir (a half to El Kabong?)(El Kabong was smashing guitars well before Pete
Townshend) was very impressive drawing off after wide on both turns, beating a
very soft (my opinion) Grade III field.

Also worth mentioning Jimmy Covello\'s Majestic Affair very impressive in the Fred
\"Cappy\" Caposella. Will be interesting to see if Jim will be able to resist
temptation with this very sharp 3YO sprinter.

[FrankD.]

Does anyone have any info on the dam? Scat Daddy\'s could get the 1 1/4 I guess?

Maggie was very negative on El Kabeir in her pre race comments questioning even yesterdays distance saying he looks like a stone cold sprinter. Terranova\'s post race comments are pointing to the 1st Saturday in May.

I certainly have no early symptoms of Derby fever.

Frank D.

[jbelfior]

Frank D:
I personally would not trust any results coming out of Aqueduct\'s inner track meet if you know what I mean.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Tavasco]

re: Sat @ GP

I was impressed by by Bluegrass Singer in the MMM and by how fast he ran the first three fractions not the last. The race was over by the time they hit the stretch.  MAWTHOOQ was well backed and I assume, intended and not by just the retiree\'s. Derby horses? unlikely as you note but reminds me some of Vicars in Charge.

Most of all I was impressed by Night Prowler coming from Chad Brown\'s barn down to S. Fl. his price reflected the confidence the folks have in Chad\'s stock more than the horses accomplishments to date. The trip was ugly he had to stop and start, bob and weave. The running line says \"wore them down late\" - not the way I saw it! He just didn\'t have room to run until mid stretch and while he did not explode he won a race where he looked beaten.

Nice to see Tomlinson win one off a rest albeit on the dirt. An angle that used to be a mainstay on turf. Also the scratch of Bluegrass Singer from that race was fortuitous.

As for Aqueduct, How was the brunch? Regarding El Kabeir very impressive. It was the Jerome after all. I expect Terranova to keep it simple, stay home point toward Wood. The horse is fast enough got some pts?  I assume the Servis horse NASA was in very good form and developing in a healthy manor. Which leads to the dam and dam\'s dam. Very ordinary OH bred that somehow got to Stonerside? History suggests durability and soundness but don\'t know why the dam did not race.

[covelj70]

Hey Richie, thanks alot for the nice thoughts about Majestic Affair

That was certainly a fun and exciting way to start the year.

Majestic is a 100% stone cold sprinter, no delusions about him going two turns.

A race like the Bay Shore would be terrific for him I think but obviously alot has to go right between now and then!

In terms of El Kabeir, I think he is a very very nice horse but I don\'t think he has any chance of getting 1 1/4.  Physically, he doesn\'t look at all like a Derby horse.  They will 100% be on the derby trail all the way to the first Sat in May but I wouldn\'t use any Derby futures money on him.  Hopefully he stays sound through the Derby trail and can win some of the shorter distance races on the other side of the Derby.  very nice horse.

[Al Caught Up]

I hope you\'re wrong, since I ended up on him in the first pool of the Derby futures at 76-1 ...

[covelj70]

well, at 76-1, I think it\'s a good play, he\'s down to 20-1 now and he will be 15 to 1 or more even if he makes it all the way to the starting gate in May so I was more talking about someone playing him at 20-1 right now

no one should listen to what I say anyway on the subject, I was the mope that tried to talk everyone off Cali Chrome last year even after I a) tried to buy him in January, and b) played him in three different futures pools early on.

I just massively overanalyze everything related to the Derby because I get so excited about it so you can pretty much ignore everything I say on this, or any other topic for that matter, between now and the first Sat in May!

good luck!

[TGJB]

Jim, I printed this one out and will refer to it here often as the year goes on.

[Tavasco]

So how much would you take for your ticket Al?
Sorry, I\'m just messing with ya. On the flip side. How about 3/5 on any 3 y/o other than the 24 listed pool #1 entrants. Do I understand that correctly? I don\'t fully grok the merits of the bet. Did some late betting bridge jumper sour the price on other than? Looking back has pool #1 historically excluded the KD winner? No offense to the pool players who I assume plunge for 5 months of anticipation and excitement at the prospects of a healthy price. Who does that at odds on? Pessimists?

Good luck with your future bet, if most loved him you would not have gotten 75/1.

[Al Caught Up]

I fully expect to rip it to little pieces, and I know it\'s worse than a fool\'s errand to bet in fall Derby futures. But it\'ll be fun if he can manage to stay in one piece and handle two turns, won\'t it?

[covelj70]

I will add one more that you can use as bulletin board material for the next four months!

when I try to argue that whatever slug Dallas Stewart gets into the race doesn\'t have a chance to hit the board, will someone please smack me in the head?

Wrongly tried to talk some sense into me last year but I didn\'t listen because I am a stuborn idiot!

[Dick Powell]

Hey Jim,
Who was that who led your horse into the winner\'s circle? Looked like the thrill of a lifetime.
Dick

[lovetwogamble]

Watched El Kabeir and was somewhat impressed, but agree a Scat Daddy colt may not get the Derby distance even with a Unbridled Song mare on the bottom.  Then out of the corner of my eye, I saw General Bellamy picking up the pieces.  

Any thoughts, experts?

A Bellamy Road colt out of an Awesome Again mare sure got my attention for for the Derby distance.  And I get Bill Mott, too?  Hmmmmm.....

[Tavasco]

I think you have landed on a very interesting colt. His breeding is attractive as one would expect of Mr. G. Steinbrenner RIP.

I\'m not familiar with the principal owner Bach. They appear to be a syndicator with a modicum of success. They may be ready to cash out and Gentleman Jim Covello might find the price attractive. Seeing Jim\'s recent and wonderfully honest post signals game on Derby Fever is-a-comin. Next a nice negative number by a 1st or 2nd time starter @ GP.  

I would like to see Mr. Mott win the derby and sooner rather than later. This colt is certainly no sprinter and as you suggest should come into his own as the season progresses. I am wondering if that 2nd start the one taken off the turf was he entered as MTO or was Mott aiming to try the turf?

The jump to stakes company shows me the horse has a future. We didn\'t see his best race when he missed the start but he ran professionally showing me good character.