Late bet downs

[Boscar Obarra]

Byk keeps getting callers who are befuddled by horses getting \'crushed late\', such as 2-1 to 1-1, as if they were having their pocket picked by some nefarious past posting mob.  He mentions everything , tote delays, archaic technology,  except the simple percentages involved.

 Forgetting  about the more esoteric issues, and leaving takeout out of the equation, 2-1 to 1-1 is 33% to 50% of the pool.

 I have the sneaking suspicion that most of the callers are math impaired and think the price has been cut in half.

 2-1 to 1-1 is nothing , especially in the smaller pools. A well heeled gambler can do that in NY or Cali if so inclined and Todd or Bob gives them the heads up.

[miff]

Pool integrity should be of interest to anyone who gambles on racing. The Clueless Clowns do not have the wherewithal to deal with this rather simple problem. It only takes technology and the necessary financial investment to substantially eliminate the antiquated system now in place which \"chokes\" on processing much of the wagering which comes to the pools in the last 30-45 seconds.

Stock exchanges/Banks process millions of transactions on a real time basis(within Milli-seconds)every day.

Like much of racings ills, this goes to the lightweights in charge of the game, their overall lack of business acumen,disregard for the players concerns.

[TGJB]

Someone needs to do a study of the relationship between those flashes and results, and if there is correlation, look at where the bets are coming from.

[Boscar Obarra]

By my eye, there is  no relationship in the results that would indicate past posting.

 And I\'m more than aware of how antiquated the tote system is.  And sure, there is opportunity to cheat, in theory.  But I\'ve seen no evidence of it and I look at it closely.

 I\'d be the first to say there was something rotten going on , but I can\'t claim to have seen 1 suspicious \'late bet\' in years.  As I said , I think most of the complaining is being done by folks that don\'t understand the workings of the pools.

 Someone should ask Maury Wolf if he thinks there\'s cheating .

[phil23]

One factor, which I did not realize, but that Steve has mentioned a couple of times in the last few weeks on the show is the \"listed odds\" on the graphics package only changes when the running order changes, If they run 1/2/3/4 until the far turn and only then does the order change, only then will their listed odds change to reflect the late money.

So this is one of the things that contributes to the image of post posting (and I\'m not saying past posting does not ever happen either...just that this contributes to the appearance of it even more)...because as Miff says, the Clueless Clowns that run this sport don\'t give a damn about addressing their antiquated tech or legit player concerns.

[jerry]

Before offshore and inter track wagering, my wife and I made good wood every summer just charting the late double (there were only two doubles in those days). No sheets, no DRF, nothing but grid paper and a pen. Did the late money tell? Very reliably. Where did it come from? I have no idea.

[Boscar Obarra]

It came from the same place as it does now.

[Mathcapper]

Boscar wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> By my eye, there is no relationship in the results that would indicate past posting.
> And I\'m more than aware of how antiquated the tote system is. And sure, there is opportunity to cheat, in theory. But I\'ve seen no evidence of it and I look at it closely.
>I\'d be the first to say there was something rotten going on , but I can\'t claim to have seen 1 suspicious \'late bet\' in years.

+ 1

I posted about this topic on another thread not too long ago. I started to do a study of late drop downs. After two weeks I quit - every dropdown I saw was simply moving into line with the odds reflected by the DD Will Pays.

2-1 to 1-1? I see it all the time. Typically the horse is 1-1 or 6-5 in the Will Pays, he\'s 2-1 with 2 or 3 minutes to post, 8-5 or 7/5 as they get in the gate, and 6-5 or 1-1 as they go down the backstretch.

[billk5300s]

I also posted on the earlier thread.  One of my observations was that \"late drop\" occurs much more frequently at smaller tracks.  It also tends to me more significant, I\'ve seen horses go from 8-1 to 3-1 at Mountaineer.  I believe this is related to the small pools at these tracks.  I haven\'t noted movement like this at the major tracks.  I was also suspicious but after watching closely I didn\'t think the drops were out of line.  I will also note that they don\'t always win either.  If there were consistent large drops on front runners on speed biased tracks I would have considered digging deeper but I didn\'t observe that.  The antiquated systems seems more likely to be the root cause of the drops IMHO.

[jerry]

Which is...?

[jerry]

First if all, forget the small tracks. There\'s no way to get your arms around those price moves and it doesn\'t take much to move them. Second, the most volatility occurs in the exotic pools, exactas and doubles. Again, they\'re smaller than the win pool and it takes less money to move them. They are often a pretty good tell about the direction of money flow into the win pool as well as the outcome of the race, although, with all of the late money pouring in from satellite joints, good luck getting your bet down on time. Changes in final double probables is the only playable edge you\'ll catch going into the back half of the double. With rolling doubles though, you can use the back half as a key going into the next double.

[Beau]

Even if the odds dropping during the race is legit. The \"perception\" is not good. You know the \"perception\" that is trying to get rid of Lasix. LOL

To me this is the most important issue that needs to be resolved. Legit or not.

BetFair has one of the most sophisticated tech systems in racing. You can place a real time wager during the race on their system.

These clowns would rather fight about Lasix than fix an antiquated tote system.

The lasix issue was just brought up again and some top trainers are now for banning lasix when they were against it not to long ago. I wonder why? It can\'t be because their clients are for the ban can it? $$$$ LOL

One more thing... What about us, the bettor, player, gambler, or punter? We get the shaft if they ban lasix. How in the world are you going to tell if your horse that you bet is about to bleed? I know I won\'t be placing any wagers on horses that\'s for sure. I may as well try greyhounds. LOL

[TGJB]

I talked about the least three sentences of that, almost word for word, at Saratoga last weekend, with the people that run a whole lot of major tracks. I agree completely.

[Beau]

Thank\'s Jerry... for speaking up about this issue to people who are in charge!

Hopefully they will HEAR you!

[TGJB]

It doesn\'t matter whether they hear me or not. There is no mechanism that could make the changes this industry needs short of a player (customer) revolt, and I ain\'t doing it.