California Chrome.....all or nothing....

[SoCalMan2]

If you throw out CC\'s first time out, he is 7 wins out of 10 tries with no in the money finishes. I.e. this horse either wins or folds up like a cheap suit...am thinking that if it makes sense to play against him for the first spot, it also makes sense to play against him in the other spots.


When he is good, he is good, but when he is not good, he is nowhere....numbers confirm it too.

[sekrah]

David Grening ‏@DRFGrening·12 mins
California Chrome is 2-5 and will likely stay there or be 3-5 at post time. In last 31 years, odds-on faves in Preakness are 2 for 8.

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Don\'t see how a rational person wouldn\'t bet against this horse.  Opportunity is ripe for a huge score.

[number5858]

Sek makes a good point. Even if CC wins, the Tri and Super should still be good. Reference the 2008 Preakness with Big Brown on top:


Pgm  Horse           Jockey       Win   Place   Show
 7   Big Brown       Desormeaux  2.40    2.60   2.40
 1   Macho Again     Leparoux           17.20  10.40
 3   Icabad Crane    Rose                       5.60

Winning Time:  1:54.80

$2 Exacta 7-1                36.30
$2 Trifecta 7-1-3           336.80
$1 Superfecta 7-1-3-6      1192.30

[alang]

back then they only had $1 minimums for wagers, now tri\'s are 50 cents and Supers for a dime.

[SoCalMan2]

I am thinking the following -- keying GAR and KC and making that the main focus of my play.......however, in case they run well and CC does manage to string together another super effort, I will cover with Supers with CC on top and GAR and KC underneath....however, that is all I will have on CC.....if he runs second, third or fourth, I will have zero.  I think he is going to bounce, but if I am wrong about that, I think he will win...i do not see him running something like a 2 and getting a piece (or I would say the chances of that are low).  On top of that, all the money on him in exotics in second and third position is most likely dead money to shoot at in my view (I would say that it is probably like an 80% chance he either wins or runs out)

[Boscar Obarra]

Lots of people like to bet as if the fave will win or run out, but I\'m not a big fan of that logic. You mean CC can\'t have the lead and get nailed on the wire and run second?  

 In this case, his numbers dont lay over the field, so the \'win or run out\' scenario is less likely than usual.

[Boscar Obarra]

S.I.  crushed in the 11th-12th doubles.  You\'ll be lucky to get 4-1 win if they come back for more.