Social Inclusion/Bernardini

[richiebee]

First I want to say how much I appreciate having Michael D and Mjellish
contributing during Triple Crown, Breeders Cup, etc. I personally have to
thank them both for being very patient with me as I occasionally stray off
topic.

Both of these gentlemen have pointed out that Social Inclusion, like 2006
Preakness winner Bernardini, had only 3 lifetime starts coming in to Baltimore.
I would like to split some hairs here.

1)Bernardini won his final prep, the Withers at Aq, three weeks before his
Preakness victory. In his final prep, SI was third in the Wood, six weeks ago.
Without doing extensive research or creating an Excel chart, my OPINION is
that for a healthy 3YO, I would prefer the three week gap as opposed to the
six week gap. Bottom line is that SI comes to the Hilltop without a stakes win
of any kind.

2) Bloodline: Bernardini was by top stallion AP Indy out of a mare who earned
over 800K on the track. The most excellent TG data shows that SI, by Pioneer
of the Nile, sold for 60K as a yearling whereas the average POTN yearling sold
for 80K.

3) In retrospect, we have the advantage of knowing that Bernardini went on to
become an outstanding 3YO, putting up a string of negative TG #s in winning
the Jimbo Dandy and the Travers by open lengths, then went on to win the JC
Gold Cup before running second to Invasor in the BC Classic.

Mjellish made an excellent point in the run up to the Derby. While we all
seemed to agree that a 3YO who was successful at 9 furlongs in a March or April
major prep should be able to get 10 furlongs in May, MJ pointed out that some
of the prep winners were basically milers who were stretched to their limit to
win at 1-1/8 miles, and that these were colts who should be avoided in the TC
series.

This is the way I feel about SI, who tired in his 1-1/8th final prep in the
Wood, six weeks ago. Even if he gets an uncontested early lead (unlikely) on a
track surface he likes (who knows?), I think SI comes face to face with oxygen
debt/lactic acid build up in the lane and is tossable here as a clear second
favorite.

[Tavasco]

Richiebee:

Posting at 4:04 a.m. and I thought everyone else had turned it. Big Brown was another somewhat similar to Bernadina lightly raced big figures @ GP.

But those are the only two GP campaigners (in recent years) who have shown up @ PIM. My preliminary theory (with only the small sample size of yesterday LOL) is to play against GP dirt campaigners I will test it tomorrow Saturday.

As an aside Contreras (SI\'s rider) who has repeatedly betrayed my confidence in his mounts by going stupid wide like centrifugal force was gonna help him. Could loose 2-3 lengths in first turn even if he clears which Bayern will contest.

I\'m going to reread your post now - just because of the hour it must be inspired.

[jbelfior]

Interesting thing here Richie is that SI may very well derail CC\'s TC hopes without winning the race.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[richiebee]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Interesting thing here Richie is that SI may very
> well derail CC\'s TC hopes without winning the
> race.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B


Joe even worse it will derail my plans to beat CC at a very short price in the
Belmont.

I am convinced (yet could be dead wrong) that SI is a \"short\" horse in this spot.
Not only has he not raced in 41 days, he has had no published workout longer than
a half mile since March 26.

[Lost Cause]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Interesting thing here Richie is that SI may very
> well derail CC\'s TC hopes without winning the
> race.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B

Would agree if it was just Social Inclusion up front but since Bayern is in there SI might have to push to be with that one while CC gets the stalk trip coming off the inside.  Espinoza is a pretty good rider so I don\'t see him forcing the pace here with a horse that has some stalking ability.
  I am with Richiebee on Social Inclusion\'s spacing causing confusion, although it did not keep me up to 4am as it did him.  I\'m going to play against him and expect to see the same fade as in the Wood from distance and inactivity.

Keying Chrome on top of Kid Cruz, A-Rod, Ride on Curin, Dynamic Impact for the Hi 5 , tri, super, ex.  with a few backups of them on top. I\'ll also shove in Ria Antonia to suck up a 4th or 5th place finish in Supers and Tris.

Good Luck everyone!!

[sekrah]

I have some Sartin roots from way back and there\'s alot of legit stuff in there in regards to track profiles. Anyway, anytime an E8 ships from Aqueduct to a speed bowl like Pimlico, I pay attention.

I\'ve heard the chatter of a speed duel breaking out, but there\'s nobody in this field with the top speed of Social Inclusion.  He\'ll get to the front and he\'ll use less energy doing it than he did in the Wood.  

If he gets a good break (like he didn\'t in the Wood), he wins.

[big18741]

Temperament,connections and bloodlines are where SI doesn\'t compare to Bernardini.

[Michael D.]

Agree with a lot of this, Richie.

Bernardini is my favorite horse of all time. Number one. On figures, any figures, he was one of the fastest 3 yr olds to ever run.

Social Inclusion\'s pedigree does not match Bernardini\'s. I like PotN as a young sire, a lot, and like Saint Ballado with Ballade in there. Below that it\'s more tilted towards speed. SI has a nice 1m to 9f pedigree. Bernardini has about the strongest 1 3/16 pedigree I have ever seen.

As for the Wood, with the 10 hole and short run to the first turn, Contreras was forced to use the horse early. The :47.2 pace over the demanding surface was pretty strong. That SI managed to put up a TG of 0.5 under those conditions in his 3rd career start is impressive. If the number came back 3 or 4, I would have no interest. But a 0.5 fits well here if the horse gets the lead as he usually does, and SI has license to improve on that if he breaks clean. Let\'s see how the surface looks though. If they were running this race at GP, SI would be very strong imo. Make it at Big Sandy, and I would not like the horse much. What these guys do with the surface today is anybody\'s guess. I\'ll watch some of these races before making a final decision.

[miff]

\"As for the Wood, Contreras was forced to use the horse early from the 10 hole with the short run to the first turn. The :47.2 pace over the demanding surface was pretty strong\"


....early pace figs for the Wood fastest of any prep.

[Michael D.]

thanks for that Mike.

[sekrah]

Agree with alot of what Michael D. said, but a 9f horse can get 1 3/16 at a early speed profile track like Pimlico no sweat IMO.

Love PotN. I think he\'s going to crown more than a couple Triple Crown winners.

The Wood performance by SI was extraordinary IMO.  If the track is looks like normal Pimlico on the undercard, I\'m double fisting at the window for SI.  If he breaks on top, I don\'t see how he loses.

[Michael D.]

Dynamic Impact is interesting at a big price. draws post 1 and runs ok inside. could get the 1w/1w trip. bred to go long so it\'s no surprise the big top came with an extra 1/8. bounce the obvious issue, but Casse has been strong last 90 days (30% new tops, good ROI).