Dueling Suppositions and Outcome Determinism

[moosepalm]

Triple Crown season brings out the annual battle of theory vs. theory, or put another way, my supposition can kick your supposition\'s ass.  In a game of probabilities, that seems inevitable.  It was readily apparent leading up to the Derby.  What it amounts to is a house of cards built on a series of \"if...thens.\" What strikes me as important, and often overlooked, is the nature of an \"if.\"  Is there a continuum on which \"ifs\" and \"shoulds\" are located, and do we recognize when we\'re building a case on one as opposed to the other?  Value obviously comes into play here, as well, because building contingencies on a potential 50-1 return is a different matter than on 2-1.  Knowing the difference is the key.  I\'d like to think my 2-1 wager is constructed on a platform of \"shoulds\" as opposed to \"ifs.\"

What seems most apparent is that many of us engage in outcome determinism, a legal term used to describe a judicial decision or opinion that is pre-ordained, and facts will be shaped to fit the desired outcome (TGJB may have experienced this in Kentucky, and it has become increasingly evident in the output of the Supremes).  Here, we see it most frequently in the rush to judgment against a favorite.  Someone recently wrote he will never bet a favorite.  That\'s fine as long as you\'re sitting out some races, because, if not, you\'re already assuring yourself a roughly one-third loss on all your wagers.  That\'s a tough nut to crack on top of the 15%+ vig we\'re already getting whacked.  

This seems to all be part of the human element of the game, and for me, it\'s my biggest downfall, because regardless of the ever increasing amount of information I absorb, I can\'t overcome my own irrational biases.  For example, there is rarely a horizontal wager that I feel I can\'t successfully attack.  There, I\'ve said it.  \"Hello, my name is moose, and I\'m a horizontalaholic.\"  Look in the mirror and tell yourself you don\'t have one, too.  If not, you might be among the 10%, or less, who actually make money at this game.

A year ago, when the Horseplayer Now site was running its \"Night School\" series, Michael Beychok, along with a casual acquaintance of mine, appeared in a segment focusing on the Psychology of the Horseplayer.  It was useful and informative, but sadly not life changing for me.  While watching the \"Horseplayers\" series on Esquire, I often wondered if Christian Hellmers, who is in the midst of a phenomenal run, has the right kind of incantations and incense to keep his head clear of all the noise that gets in the way of cogent analysis.  All kidding aside, I\'d really like to know.

[razzle]

Thank you for dressing our demon in such elegance..  However, \"if\" I believe you are correct, \"then\" I \"should\" have to give up some of my favorite \"head noise\" dogma.  No way!

[TGJB]

Christian is a whole different animal, normal rules don\'t apply.

I have to say, if that show had been on a generation ago, Richie Schwartz alone would have made great television. And there were others, like this young guy they called \"the kid\". Not the jockey.

The Friedman/Richie rivalry alone would have been riveting.

[Boscar Obarra]

Had only a nodding acquaintance with RS, but saw him one day after the races at Belmont, lying in the grass with some gal.

 Thought it was very atypical  of a \"Horseplayer\", then and now.

[TGJB]

Wait. What??? Richie a) lying in the grass, b) with a girl??? WTF???

Close to impossible it was Richie.

[Topcat]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Had only a nodding acquaintance with RS, but saw
> him one day after the races at Belmont, lying in
> the grass with some gal.
>
>  Thought it was very atypical  of a \"Horseplayer\",
> then and now.


If they ever made a \"Big Bang Theory\"-type program based on hardcore degennies, it would be Your Show of Shows.

[TGJB]

Yeah. But is there any chance it could have been Richie? I mean what\'s the chance he could relax enough to lie down in the grass, let alone with a girl?

One day we\'ll have a Richie true story contest on this board, first guy to ten wins.

[FrankD.]

JB,

Having heard first hand a few of your Richie stories; running out of gas at the same tool booth multiple days in a row or the \" I had a good day I\'ll buy 2/3 of the the dinner\" do stand out!

[TGJB]

Hey, it was just 2 days in a row.

Friedman was in the car with him both times.

[moosepalm]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Christian is a whole different animal, normal
> rules don\'t apply.
>
> I have to say, if that show had been on a
> generation ago, Richie Schwartz alone would have
> made great television. And there were others, like
> this young guy they called \"the kid\". Not the
> jockey.
>
> The Friedman/Richie rivalry alone would have been
> riveting.

What\'s so special about Christian?  I see guys walking down the streets with tails sticking out under their coats all the time.

Don\'t know Richie, but I know some things about \"the kid.\"  They\'d run out of contests to tape before they\'d run out of characters to fill them.

[Boscar Obarra]

lol, just checked the picture id on the net in case I was confusing him with someone else. It was him.

  And yes, it was so incongruous that it burned itself into my brain like an alien landing or something equally bizarre.

Found this, may be of interest .

http://youtu.be/E2fwHCO_56U

[TGJB]

Not \"like\" an alien landing. An alien landing.

[Edgorman]

College basketball betting.