Sometimes I Hate This Game

[TGJB]

Had the Rushaway winner bought last week for $65k, he didn\'t pass the vet. We were the ones who nominated him to the race as a maiden.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jerry, I had Birdstone tossed from the exotics completely. I was all over the 10 who was close to winner and I had him with the other numbers. I called Fragoso\'s agent and told him to stay off the rail. Just like you I cashed Turfway for the goose egg.

lol

CtC

By the way, why did the Vet not give him the A.O.K.?

I saw that Turfway developed a dead rail this week. I sent Joe B. an email on it. I hope he scored. I say this because its out now. The top local jocks and trainers all knew by today. I was reviewing charts for the track and noticed nothing was winning from the one hole. During the whole week there were two one hole winners. One odds on. Zuniga clearly understood the golden path. Friday night he won the last three or four races and each time he was on the path like a slot car. I\'m pretty sure Berajano was on it also. The other one hole winner came on a race where Berajano took a Bev and Bob Lewis horse completely back out of the one hole to go around everyone. It was comical to watch on replay. The amazing thing to me was sometimes he stayed in that hole and of course he got beat when he did  and he did it at times when the big time jocks came to town today. I think he was playing possum. Remember the day he got 7 winners? I\'m betting it was bias but I didn\'t check it. The bias wasn\'t as great today. The rail just wasn\'t nearly as bad as it was Thursday and Friday. It was still bad but not nearly like those days. By today the word had gotten out among the top trainers and jocks there. But I\'m certain Bailey never had a clue. Maybe late in the card he did. But he left Birdstone along it from the one hole and whether the Bird was ready today or not, he had no real chance. Bailey not picking up on it was the real shocker to me. I was sure by that race a jock of his discerning eye would have figured it. But Berajano did kill a horse or two in that hole and that may have made it look less apparent to Bailey. I think Berajano is a crafty kid. So was that Zuniga. The funny thing is how you can evaluate their sneakiness when you\'re onto their game and how coy they are. They have to be, its their livelihood.

I\'m embarrassed to say I did not cash that race. I had Little Matth Man with all those horse in perfectas, unfortunately he didn\'t quite get there. I like Sinister G, but he wasn\'t my key. I keyed Matth. Sometimes your good and you lose.

I hate this game.

I had the Gotham and Smarty so it helped. But I\'m still sick I should\'ve back wheeled Matth in the Tri and Super.

One other thing. If Hasslefree had broke clean I\'m sure I\'d be celebrating tonight. Lukas still kills me even when he\'s supposed to lose.



Post Edited (03-21-04 08:00)

[bdhsheets]

There\'s an adage out there that implies speed figures have taken away legit price plays from horse racing. Poppycock!!!!!

Take a look in tomorrows Red Board and visit Turfways 7th the Rushaway and see how this maiden $79 winner stacked up vs winners in the race. Orrrr see how explosive a line the $34 winner in the Lanes End looked on his sheet in the 8th.

TG should put one of them up on a link.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I saw Sinister\'s Line. I made my mistakes in not discounting Matth somewhat when the track didn\'t come up wet. After I called the agent, I felt I had an interest in the horse and I stuck with him in the bet. In hindsight Sinister was as good a bet (better on odds). He also ran partially against a bias (that was somewhat more subtle by that race) I still think if Hasslefree breaks well I score the Tricky Taboo - Little Matth Man backdoor. He\'s good and the division at this time is up for grabs. 20 horse Derby Field. You gotta love it.

What about that Smarty Jones spotting all that weight and winning like he did? The time of that race was outstanding and the way he did it professional. I like this horse. Its a question of breeding.

CtC



Post Edited (03-21-04 08:06)

[fasteddie]

This is the time of year I wait for! We should all pray that Smarty Jones wins the AK. derby by daylight so he becomes a huge money magnet on DD! All I need now is Saratoga County to win the Wood, and Action this day to romp in the Blue Grass so that Eurosilver will be 15-1 in the Derby.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

One day a horse is gonna come along to tap into those 5 million dollar bonuses. Its possible it could happen in a year where he gets a local track bonus and the Triple Crown bonus. If the horse is good enough to do that, he will rewrite the record earnings books. Even the Japanese earnings might pale by comparison.

I think Birdstone should be excused on his last race, but all along I\'ve believed that Eurosilver is Zito\'s best hope. Zito hasn\'t said that to my knowledge though. He got what he wanted out of the Swale.

CtC

[Labeebmile]

Sometimes I love this game...

I cashed my first ever withholding ticket on Saturday while in Vegas for the NCAA\'s. My only question was why didn\'t Turfway show the will pays for the Pick 4? I had all of the horses, except for the #6 on which I had a DD hedge along with a $500 win hedge since I felt that if the 1/2 shot was beaten, I could take down the whole pool. It was fun to cash, but even more fun to know what could have been.

Once again, thanks TG.

[derby1592]

Fasteddie,

A couple of things to keep in mind regarding Eurosilver:

He has not been over 7f yet this year. Maybe he can be ready for 10f on the first Saturday in May off this type of preparation but, if so, Zito will have completely re-written the book on how to prep for the Derby. Those guys in Dubai have been taking a similar approach for years now and have yet to be successful but maybe they just haven\'t had the right horse yet and maybe Zito is a better trainer and maybe the \"old\" way is not necessarily the \"best\" way.

Euro has the classic, too-fast, too-early sheet that typically is not a good sign for a Derby horse. However, the pattern is very strong, which is definitely a counterpoint in his favor.

Euro is unlikely to be 15/1 on Derby day unless he runs up the track in the Blue Grass, which would not be a very positive sign. If he runs well in the Blue Grass (does not have to win) he will definitely be one of the favorites. It is hard for me to see how a Zito horse with Euro\'s record could be good value in the Derby, but I might be wrong.

This Derby is wide open and I have to believe their will be other horses that will be much better value than Euro on Derby day but we will have to wait and see what develops.

It should be an interesting lead up to the Derby again this year.

Chris

[Dr. Fager]

Regarding the sale of Rushaway winner Brass Hat, which fell through, DRF\'s Marty McGee wrote that the veterinarian came up to Brass Hat\'s trainer William Huff, after the Rushaway, and said, \"I thought those people bought the horse.\"  He said his vet told him, the horse had a few little things wrong with it, but nothing that would keep anybody from following through if they really wanted him.  What was wrong with the horse? War Emblem sold for $900,000 with ankle chips to Thoroughbred Corp after being turned down by other prospective purchasers including trainer Elliot Walden.  Obviously, it\'s a judgment call.  When you identify racing prospects, do you use bloodstock agents or do you strictly use numbers?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Losing Brass Hat to the Vet\'s bad report was a tough beat. The win essentially would have won back his purchase price. He won off by 4 lengths in good time in a race on fractions as fast and faster than Sinister G. set and this was before the track was sealed. (My assumption being the sealed track was faster) The purchase price is probably closer to a quarter million now. (If not more) One thing worth noting is that Brass Hat had a jock that knew the bias and took advantage of it. Would T-Graph have retained him? Brass Hat certainly looks like he would have been a good buy at 65K. He has a progressive looking line and he might develope into something truly good, but he did run and win on a bias.

CtC

[fasteddie]

derby1592:

It\'s a stretch that Euro will be that high, but don\'t kid yourself; a 15+ horse field is likely, no one (yet) has stood out and if he runs a well-beaten 2nd or 3rd he will be at least 10-1. Smarty looks like the winner of the AK race and staying undefeated makes him take a lot of $$ on DD. I want Baffert to win the SA race with Wimbledon (please, please!) so that he takes big cash. BTW, in this year of the \"Passion\" movie, Baffert\'s Consecrate would be a great hunch bet!

[TGJB]

\"What was wrong with the horse\" has been the subject of some discussion. Vet reports are laundry lists of things the vet sees, subject to interpretation, and this horse had minor stuff. It\'s always tricky when you vet a lightly raced horse-- if a horse has shown he can take a regular turn and produce a healthy pattern over a period of time you can be more lenient. Meanwhile, Brass Hat can join my list of  \"had bought, turned down after vetting\" that includes Glitter Woman, Magic Weisner, and Extra Heat (ouch). Having said that, neither Victory Gallop nor Da Hoss was a perfect specimen.

I use bloodstock agents (mostly Don Brauer) as a source for horses, but not to form opinions of what they are worth.

Everyone has their own standard of toughness when vetting-- I bought some horses for Louie Rousell years ago, he was brutally tough, and it made no difference since even the ones he bought broke down. Baffert\'s guy wanted a horse to run in the Derby, and didn\'t care about the money.



Post Edited (03-23-04 12:40)

[Dr. Fager]

Thank you very much for your response on the \"vetting\" and prosepective purchase of Brass Hat.  Some follow up questions.  Are there any sources you can provide to a bettor to ascertain the physical problems or peculiarities of a racehorse, or its training regimen, other than the ubiquitous DRF, Thoroughbred Times, Blood Horse.  In the sale of a horse, you have access to the horse, a vet\'s and trainer\'s comments, which are not really for public consumption.  For example, I love the quote of Lukas\' NY 2nd trainer, Peter Hutton, on Quick Actions\'s 4th place finish in his 2nd start on 12/26/03 from DRF\'s David Grening on 1/13/04 - \"I hate to say it but we didn\'t have him ready for that race\".  Where do you get that kind of info before the race?  And he was the 4-5 favorite.  In England, it\'s even worse.  In professional sports, especially football, which I don\'t follow, there are injury lists.  The lists are important for those wagering on that sport.  In horse racing, it is much more guarded, perhaps for good reason.  But here millions of dollars are also being bet, and the bettors, for too long, get the short end of the stick, on information and losing money via excessive takeout.  At least you are helping, not for charitable reasons,  to address the takeout issue via pooling resources to obtain rebates.  An interesting on-line streaming video discussion of betting and rebates is offered at www.harnesstracks.com or robertscomnet.com by Maury Wolff, Dave Cuscuna and David Willmot, CEO of Woodbine from the recent HTA-TRA conference March 4, 2004 in Florida.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

You\'re still onto it Jerry. When you add up the number of huge dollars spent on unproven yearlings, you\'re much better off taking a chance on some conformity issues with a proven runner. I just don\'t think there's any doubt about that. So you have an outfit like Team Valor that buys a Captain Bodgit for 200K. (I think that's what they paid.) He won the Florida Derby and Wood for them and came within a good jocks ride of winning the Derby (That and a dead game Silver Charm) before he went bad. You\'re Victory Gallop was another great one for 500K. When you look at the number of 500K yearlings sold that don\'t amount to a hill of beans on the track or in the breeding shed its not even arguable. The amount of Phipps blueblood that's shipped to Japan and elsewhere is further evidence that finding \"residual breeding value\" in the yearling market, especially for a colt, is as much or more of a crapshoot than is finding a superior horse there.

I think Brass Hat, being a Grandson of Kris S., (who is gone now), has some breeding potential. Prized is getting a little long in the tooth. (I thought he was in New Zealand.) And Dixie Brass was a freak. (At least for two races) Prized and Dixie Brass in the pedigree is a nice mix of speed, stamina and possible turf influence. I don\'t know what T-Graph makes the Rushaway figure to be I\'m guessing 1 or 2 range with the wide path factored. The problem is I really believe the wide was to his benefit in that race and I did notice he was also wide in the preceding event. I don\'t know for sure how long the anti rail bias was in existence. So I guess we\'ll see about Brass Hat.

I said this before and I\'ll say it again. Any friends of Satish Sanan out there that per chance become aware of this site I strongly encourage them to suggest allowing Thorograph to buy Padua three horses for 500K-1000K each. I guarantee you\'ll do better than hoping and praying in the yearling market. Look at what they\'ve done for WinStar\'s stallion roster. A good stallion is not ALL about pedigree. Distorted Humor is going to be a long-term force if he stays healthy.

CtC



Post Edited (03-23-04 14:09)

[TGJB]

The short answer is no, there is a lot of information that has never been and is not now available to the public. John posted here a while back about the influence of one particular vet, and that guy (and possibly others) are the most important factor of any kind in handicapping right now, but the whole issue is flying beneath the public\'s radar.