Derby Week wrap up

[FrankD.]

Congrats to the connections of California Chrome, a very nice horse who could not have won any easier.

Assmussen says virtually no chance of Untapable going in the Preakness, Social Inclusion has a foot bruise so it\'s up to Baffert to bring in the only legitimate fresh shooters for the Preakness in Bayern or Hoppertunity to challenge CC. There is no reason to think anything he beat yesterday can turn the tables in 2 weeks.

Who ever originally coined the phrase \"time only counts when you\'re in jail\" was spot on yesterday. A modest pace considering the amount of anticipated early foot that made the gate yesterday and CC being shut down 500 yards out did make the slowest winning Derby in quite awhile. All here know better and that insane argument is left for the old men that still clamour about the DRF\'s variant and times. Wind also played a fact yesterday no doubt, so TGJB\'s numbers will be very interesting.

The CHD track crew really needs to clean up their act; come on guy\'s. The week starts with a dead rail, dull as can be track and then Thursday after not a drop of rain it\'s sealed and becomes very speed friendly on Friday and much more so on Derby Day. Obviously they can do whatever they want to whenever they want to, severe weather aside.

The management of CHD displayed their arrogance and non concern for the daily players who spin the wheels on this game year round. An increase in take out for a reason of improving purses for the garbage they will run there until the end of the meet. Their hold up of simulcast outlets and shutting down the signal during Derby week is a despicable act to the major outlets they affected. There aren\'t 6 more races at that dump the rest of this meet that matter and if I\'m a decision maker at a simulcast outlet I would shut them down. see how they act if their signal does not go out anywhere outside of their network for all but one week of the year? The lack of business sense, arrogance and stupidity by the talking heads of this game continue to amaze daily. Let\'s see what Clueless Kay and his band of morons can do for Belmont Day and the Spa meet to top this!

After 4 days of doing virtually nothing but gambling, digesting figs and listening to self anointed experts who bet $10 a race, I\'m hung over. It\'s draining and I do refer to it as a gambling hangover but it\'s my passion in life and nothing out there has a chance to replace it, not even close.

Awesome job by the TG crew on data, analysis and strategy on both Friday and Saturday. The Oaks was crushed, if Milam wins the bob in Friday\'s 8th race its a massive score for anyone who knows how to decipher a TG sheet in horizontals; even more so if you had the analysis and saw her as a single as our host suggested.The same deal with Coffee Clique who won a photo yesterday keying a 3 x 1 x 2 pick 3 that paid $249 given out cold on the analysis.

A profitable week here but boy oh boy what could have been!!!! If I had Miff or Jimbo\'s passion for Cali Chrome I could have really crushed it yesterday. I felt he was a nice horse, in the mix number wise, was suspect of what he beat in Cali and felt he would not take to the CHD strip as he did to Santa Anita, add in 5/2 with that many questions and I only used him moderately with my key.

On to Pimlico and NYRA\'s grand experiment of a Belmont Day stakes rich card with a potential TC winner should be interesting and good for the game. Don\'t worry Clueless Kay you will have 3 weeks to raise prices between the Preakness and the Belmont.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[TreadHead]

I\'m very interested to hear what the xpert figure makers have to say about the day.  Again, if you look at footage in HD from yesterday on TV, like in the post parades, the jockeys silks are BILLOWING in the face of what seems to be a very strong wind into the face of closers.

It\'s reminiscent of the Wood last year.

Maybe the track was also \"speed favoring\", but my guess is it is actually the wind that played a much stronger role and really not much the track crew could have done about it.

[miff]

Slow Derby. Beyer has it 97,lowest win fig ever.Strong head wind run into twice did not save fig.CC ran his same race,style wise, anyone close to him early faded late.Weak bunch going in and coming out.

A reported late bet of $1 million was made on Candy Boy by some stone sucker after that beautiful SLOW horse was said to be working beyond what anyone knew.

Workout reports, stats et al a bust, a fork for all.Tough to lose for the 2 days if you were using TG and betting fast horses.

[jbelfior]

Miff:
Stevens was nearly unseated when cut off on the clubhouse turn then ran the rest of the race closer to the outside fence than the rail. So not sure what you\'re talking about.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[miff]

Joe B,

Candy Boy ugly trip not the issue. He\'s just slow and has one race which is marginally fast vs many others in there.Stevens had hissy fit when bumped around and also carrying attitude after WTC bombed on Friday in a horrific performance and questionable ride.

Cali clocker(moves the board out there)watches CB all the time and swears he\'s very fast in the AM, but does not bring it in the afternoon.

Watched all CB\'s races and he hasn\'t brought it for me yet.

Good Luck
Mike

[vagrant]

Kerry Thomas, the \"herd whisperer,\" says of Candy Boy: \"When things don't go perfectly right for him, cracks appear. Candy Boy has received a couple rides that did not play to his strengths, but there also appear to be underlying weaknesses. ... He wins on momentum, not mental toughness or herd dynamic. Once he physically tires, there doesn't seem to be a ton of grit underneath. That can be ok in most races, but not in the Derby.\"

[sekrah]

I\'m hearing that Thomas was pretty high on Commanding Curve as well.

[miff]

Sek,

Agree but the last race should come up slower on raw relatively speaking. Wind a possible reason and there will be some data on wind speed coming out that may clarify this.

Mike

[smalltimer]

His top 6 for the Derby were:
Danza            (3rd)
Chrome           (Win)
Wicked           (4th)
Dance with Fate         (out)
Ride with Curlin        (out)
Commanding Curve (2nd)

The super in his 6 top horses.  Somethere there for the 4th straight year.

[jbelfior]

High on Commanding Curve for what reason? Still eligible for 3 yo nw1. If you caught the exacta because both horses\' initials were CC, that\'s a more plausible reason than he figured to run his \"A\" race in the Derby and was good enough to be 18 others without a chaotic pace.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[miff]

Joe B,

Comm Curve had the horse for course angle going,had a ground loaded top but a nice line for a bomb.Handled CD well in the past.He basically sucked up when many misfired or had ugly trips, slow last split into wind though.


Mike

[mjellish]

How about liking him because 2 1/2 weeks ago, before the media flocked to Churchill, Curve worked out with Golden Soul and absolutely destroyed him in a workout and galloped out like he wanted to do it again.  Then, in front of Welsch and everyone else for his final work before the derby, the exercise rider either stiffed the horse or botched the workout and more or less pulled him up in the stretch so he had to stop and start again and he still finished strong.  If you go back and watch his LA Derby, Curve was pinched back at the start and weaved his way through traffic on cue for his rider and ran a race just like you figured he would have to in the Derby.  And his sheet number and pattern were very good and explosive indicating he was probably ready for a forward move with a trainer that does well at Churchill.  And he broke his maiden at Churchill.  Bred to be a stayer and do well at the distance.  Went off as 3rd longest shot in the race in win pool and was very long in all the exotics.

Only reason not to like him was if you were worried about a speed favoring track or lack of early pace to set up his run.  

My take on him anyway.  I loved him.  Had him every which way you could.  In hindsight, given his odds, I probably should have played more on at least the savers with him coming in with Chrome as the price would have justified the investment on at least those combinations.

[miff]

A clocker I don\'t completely trust had that work on 4/18 much faster than 100.2 for Curve.

[mjellish]

My guy had him in 58.89 with a final quarter in 22 change and an extra gallop out in 12 and change with head dropped and ears pricked straight up waiting for rider to tell him what to do next.  So your guy u dont completely trust was right.

[rhagood]

Can you provide his comments on Chrome?  I didn\'t anticipate that clean of a trip from the inside post as he received.  He did throw his head up once down the stretch the first time but settled in and relaxed on the turn.  The other riders didn\'t race ride him even with the bullseye (jackass) on his back. Their loss, seems to me he has to be made very uncomfortable for some length of time to not run his race.
Not sure how that happens in 2 weeks?

CD played like my home track Gulfstream, often a bit dry and very windy (no matter how much water they apply). The wind slows the fractions down but at shorter routes than the 1 1/4 very little passing down the lane into a headwind.

Both issues helped the most consistent horse show up again, he had not run fast enough to call a bounce.  The call was that his series of faster races since December would catch up to him but in his favor was the solid foundation and a very good/clean horseman. Chrome doesn\'t carry a lot of flesh so if he looks drawn that will be a tell of the efforts catching up next out.