Final Thoughts

[justwin]

I have decided to stick with Commanding Curve for my derby pick, He is lightly raced, was pinched at the start last race so his # could have been better and he will get the distance. I will back him up with IH & WS. I will use those three with Danza, Cali Chrome, Samraat & Medal Count underneath. I used a combination of the fastest horses (negative #\'s run not consistent 0\'s except for Sam), forward moving lines, and horses I feel can get the distance.

Great job by TG yesterday. I\'m finally using the #\'s properly. I didn\'t purchase the analysis and I red boarded it this morning and we were on the same horses in almost every race.

Good luck to all!

Happy Derby Day!
George

[SoCalMan2]

Here is SoCalMan\'s Take --

Winner -- Vicar\'s In Trouble -- this horse has only run 5 times and has done almost nothing wrong.  Young developing horse with an excellent jockey in a race that requires intense jockey skills.  Although his established level is not a lot different from others in this race, he has real license to actually move forward.  First race on plastic is a toss.  Second race could not be better......a 2yo running a zero? is really something...he establishes there in his 2yo top that he is a serious horse to think about in the future.....moves into negative territory and Big Brown/Smarty Jones type status are not unreasonable to think about this horse getting to.  the only reaction/bounce in this horse\'s entire life is filled with excuse...plus he won the race by almost 7 lengths anyway.  The return to form with the buried zero is awesome and a pointer to near term improvement.  The fact that he didnt move forward last race is not troublesome to me. I would have forecasted him too, but also a lot of times you forecast a horse to move into new territory it is delayed a race.  This horse, more than any other in the race has license to run a new big top.  He has a great jockey who should be able to contend with the one hole (thinking Shoemaker on Ferdinand).

Second Best -- Dance With Fate -- this is a dirt horse finally coming back to his correct surface.  He has run good enough to win. Nakatani will stay out of trouble, and he should be the beneficiary of hot pace up front.  the only legitimate concern I can think of is was the move up too far and the rest running back too soon.  While I agree those are two issues....There are reasons I am not as concerned....first, he has been running on the wrong surface and the jump up could be a delayed reaction due to being on the wrong surface.  If he had switched to dirt in January and worked his way down nicely to his last fig, people would be all over this horse.  When we look at horses, we want to find something concealed that other people are missing.  In this horse, that is that this is a dirt horse that has been running on grass.  in terms of the rest, that is the most troublesome.  Would I like to see more time here, yes.  How do i deal with the problem of the spacing, well, he has run closely spaced races a lot and has not shown any trouble with it.  ALSO, he had a large amount of time into his last race....given he was so well rested into that race and that it was a race on poly (allegedly a more forgiving surface than dirt), I am thinking the 3 weeks rest here is not as problematic as it could be in other contexts.

Third Best -- Samraat.  talk about an honest horse....this horse has done nothing wrong.  My concern with him is a replay of the Wood Memorial....he does everything right but the shape/development of the race just plays against him....what is not to like about a 3yo who is 6 for 6 in the money (including 4 stakes, 3 of them graded)....only bad race had an excuse.  If he gets the trip, he could be there for the top prize.

Long Shot Special -- Beware of the weak half of a Baffert coupling.  how often have we seen the lesser heralded Baffert be the better.  Chitu has done nothing wrong in 4 races.  He has great spacing into this race.  Only knock on his sheet is he is slow....however his pattern suggests new top step up and Baffert\'s Derby history suggests the same.

[sekrah]

Chitu\'s pattern scares the Chitu out of me to be honest.  Not the fastest going in, but if anyone is ready to pop a 3+ pt top...

[alydar61]

I\'m sticking with Wicked Strong, and will use Commanding Curve.

With the dosage talk here over the last couple of weeks, here\'s a most likely useless stat. Only 2 horses in the race with points in their Professional column: Commanding Curve and Medal Count.

[number5858]

I was planning on playing the closers today given the amount of speed in the race. It should be highly pressured, but the trace was sealed yesterday prior to the start of racing and very fast. It looks very fast today after the first race.

[Michael D.]

I had Chitu crossed off after watching the final 1/8 of his last a few times. didn\'t like him. if Garcia can\'t get him to rate at all, he\'s a bottom 5 candidate. but the way the track is playing today, and with the ideal post, I\'ve changed my mind. it\'s AP Indy on bottom and the pattern is there for a new top, and 26-1 covers the collapse risk.

I\'ll also use Commanding Curve, for the reasons Wes Welker and 1/2 the folks here like him. the surface works against him, but he\'s 31-1.

Chitu and CC.

[TGJB]

Baffert horses are definitely running.

[bellsbendboy]

Seems by any generally accepted handicapping measure the race goes thru \"Chrome\".  He has few holes yet taking two to one in this race
is hardly exciting.

What is odd. at least from this capper, is the number of absolute no chance entries.  Not talking about winning the race but at least ten of them have no chance to hit the board!

I post position order \"Vicar\" is part of the pace and will be gone by the three eights.  \"Harry, Uncle Sigh, We Miss artie, Wild cat red and Chitu may not last that long, yet people are betting them.

Samratt, Vinceremous, Tapiture, Commanding Curve and Ride on Curlin are not hopeless to hit the exotics but unlikely.

Of the rest, the Pletcher pair are enigmas.  Intense Holiday picks up ten pounds of his tenuous Risen Star score and could well close for a piece.  Danza has become a bit of the wise guy horse and has been bet way down but he has been two turns ONCE and that, at forty something to one and picks up eight potatoes.  This \"new\" derby greatly benefits the big barns.
 
Down to a six pack and \"A rod\" could run anywhere but on his best gets first run on the speed, probably gets the trip, but has a training pattern from hell although Mike had to go slow with him to get his cut.  My winter book colt so little objectivity but at thirty to one...

Dance with Fate and Medal count are similar in that neither was penciled in here but both are sharp, carrying good flesh and will look to avoid the meteor shower around the turn.  That leaves Candy Boy and Wicked Strong and again they also face the work stoppage at the quarter pole.

I conclusion \"Chrome will have a bullseye on his back and with a clean trip the likely victor.
bbb

[justwin]

Thanks to TG for the #\'s. Hit the super but should have played the super 5. Would have been a much bigger score with Commanding on top.