A Quick Count

[Tavasco]

I reviewed the TG archives for the last 31 Derby winners. I focused on their 3 y/o campaign. I counted the number of winners that had not regressed in their 3 y/o races. Note - I ignored their 2 y/o races.

I counted 23 winners out of 31 races. My count is close albeit probably not exact. I have yet to count the number of contenders (this year or previously) which qualify for this pattern.

Note this winning group did not include either Monarchos or Smarty Jones as qualifiers each of which seemed to be dominant in their year. Although Big Brown did qualify.

Silver Charm and Grindstone were interesting as the only winners I noticed which ran the same # in the tree races prior to their derby win.

What stands out to me is - the small pct of winners which belong in the group of \"other\" patterns. i.e., if a contender has run an off race in his 3 y/o campaign he is bucking an apparent long term trend to win this year.

Culling.

[toppled]

There\'s only one horse who has never regressed in any of his races, including his 2yo races (not even a 1/4 point regression) & he\'ll pay between 15/1 and 30/1.  The only problem is, he\'s not in the top 20 & time is running out.

[jumpnthefire]

i think if the owners want in they pay another owner not to run ...